tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-138285742024-03-07T22:26:34.187-05:00Give and GoSouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-63363047921271098142007-09-08T01:59:00.001-04:002007-09-08T02:07:23.336-04:00Top 10 College Games of the WeekHeck of a Saturday for college football tomorrow, which is odd considering the second week of the season is typically a bunch of non-conference games between decent mid-majors and lousy BCS teams or good BCS teams and low-tier I-A or I-AA schools. But then again, after what Appalachian State pulled off last weekend, everyone’s radar is now on high alert.<br /><br />But we’re not talking Cinderella when it comes to this Saturday’s slate; we’re talking about flat-out good games. We present you the top 10 games to watch this weekend, complete with Vegas lines, who to watch for and who to take. In descending order…<br /><br /><strong>10. BYU (+7.5) at UCLA<br /></strong> 6:30 p.m. EST, Versus<br /><br />UCLA racked up 645 yards in an opening week beatdown of Pac-10 rival Stanford, blowing open a reasonably close 14-7 game at halftime with three Ben Olson touchdown passes in the second half. BYU went up 20-0 on Arizona before the Wildcats scored a late TD to make the final score a semi-respectable 20-7. So two Pac-10 patsies down, but now these teams will get a much better barometer of where they’re at. UCLA likes to think it’s the closest competition to cross-town rival USC in the Pac-10 (though Cal would certainly have something to say about that), and a win here against a solid Cougar team will strengthen their non-conference schedule should that come into play, say, in December.<br /><br />Olson will face his former team here, so that certainly adds to the storyline here. The 24-year-old junior will face a fellow transfer, BYU sophomore Max Hall, who left Arizona State for the Mormon university. Both teams like to throw the ball, but Kahlil Bell, who ran for nearly 200 yards, will be the difference in a UCLA victory.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> UCLA 29, BYU 20<br /><br /><strong>9. Nebraska (-8) at Wake Forest</strong><br /> Noon EST, ESPN<br /><br />Wake Forest won the ACC title last year seemingly out of nowhere, but their title defense got off to a rocky start last week with a 38-28 loss at Boston College. Not exactly the easiest task to open the season, but it goes down as an “L” nonetheless. Now, Nebraska rolls into town fresh off a 52-10 pasting of Nevada. Marlon Lucky is still running toward the end zone for the ‘Huskers, who racked up 444 rushing yards.<br /><br />Riley Skinner, Wake’s quarterback, threw three picks (to the same defender) before leaving with a separated shoulder. Brett Hodges performed pretty well in relief, and he’ll get the start vs. the ‘Huskers. Against a lesser opponent, this would be a textbook look-ahead game for Nebraska; after all, USC rolls into Lincoln next weekend. But on the road against a team that won its conference championship a year ago, don’t look for Bill Callahan’s squad to be taking Wake for granted.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> Nebraska 31, Wake Forest 24<br /><br /><strong>8. Boise State (-3) at Washington</strong><br /> 3:30 p.m EST, Fox Sports Net<br /><br />Last year’s bowl darlings won’t have anything to look ahead to here, either. The trip to Seattle is quite possibly the only test on their schedule before a trip to the islands the day after Thanksgiving to take on Hawaii. Washington came out strong on opening weekend with a 42-12 win at Syracuse, but then again, all things Orange are to be taken with a grain of salt. Boise State took down I-AA Weber State as they broke in new quarterback Taylor Tharp, who has more of a “Friday Night Lights” feel to his name than the man whose shoes he has to fill, Jared Zabransky (but hey, Zabransky does have Tharp in video game covers, 1 to 0).<br /><br />Boise will have plenty of motivation on Saturday; they’ve played with the big boys before, but they’ve never beaten a BCS school on the road, going 0 for their first 12 tries. But Washington will be fired up for this one. The Huskies are in search of their first winning season since 2003, and with Ohio State making the trek to the Pacific Northwest next weekend, the Huskies will be looking at the Broncos as the perfect appetizer.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> Washington 37, Boise State 31<br /><br /><strong>7. Notre Dame (+17) at Penn State</strong><br /> 6:00 p.m. EST, ESPN<br /><br />Irish eyes aren’t smiling. They spent last Saturday squinting at their TVs in disbelief, watching Notre Dame get dismantled, 33-3, at home to previously unranked Georgia Tech. The Charlie Weis top-secret quarterback carousel got off to an even rockier start, as all three prospective signal-callers got a chance to play, each without much success. But despite being the third guy off the bench last weekend, star freshman Jimmy Clausen will be tossed to the Nittany Lions in State College. Notre Dame couldn’t run the ball last week, and that will be even more difficult against a Penn State defense that is among the nation’s best.<br /><br />Penn State disposed of Florida International without breaking a sweat, and they’re eager for some revenge after losing 41-17 at Notre Dame a year ago. As even Ray Charles can see, much has changed for the Irish, but much has changed for Penn State too. Anthony Morelli looks like a different quarterback, and he has four quality receivers who can stretch the field. If Penn State can get its running game going early, those Irish eyes will be crying.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> Penn State 40, Notre Dame 13<br /><br /><strong>6. South Florida (+7) at Auburn</strong><br /> 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2<br /><br />The Big East has gone from laughingstock to possibly the third or fourth best conference in the country in just two years. Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia can boast national championship aspirations while Cincinnati, Pitt and particularly South Florida are programs on the rise. The Bulls opened with a ho-hum victory over Elon, but this would be their first chance for a win over a non-Big East power. Not bad for a school that’s only had a football program for 10 years.<br /><br />While South Florida may have coasted to a victory against a I-AA team, Auburn found itself unable to move the football for most of three-and-a-half quarters in its opener against Kansas State. Were it not for a few questionable calls, the Wildcats could have easily walked out of Jordan-Hare Stadium with a victory. Brandon Cox, who threw two costly interceptions against KSU, will have to improve if the Tigers are going to beat a much tougher opponent in the Bulls. Look for freshman running back Mike Ford to get more than six carries against Auburn, after having burned Elon for 83 yards on those limited carries.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> South Florida 23, Auburn 19<br /><br /><strong>5. Miami (Fla.) (+10.5) at Oklahoma<br /></strong> Noon EST, ABC<br /><br />This is a dangerous game for Oklahoma. They’re coming off a 79-10 thrashing of North Texas and have to think they’re on top of the world offensively. Miami didn’t look spectacular in a win against Marshall, but established a solid identity running the football, something they’ll have to do more of if they’re to hang with the Sooners.<br /><br />For the Hurricanes, this is their chance to reestablish their identity of dominance under new coach Randy Shannon. If they can go into Norman and knock off a top 5 team that arguably looked more dominant than anyone on opening weekend, the disaster that was last season will be forgotten almost as soon as it happened. Stopping Sam Bradford’s passing attack and a tailback attack that has four capable runners will be no easy task, but Miami’s Calais Campbell and Kenny Phillips are two of the best defenders in the country. Freshman quarterback Kirby Freeman will be the key to this one. If he delivers, the ‘Canes will have a chance. If not, it’s back to the drawing board in Coral Gables.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> Oklahoma 28, Miami 20<br /><br /><strong>4. Oregon (+8) at Michigan<br /></strong><br />This might be the most intriguing game in the country just for the train-wreck factor. Does Michigan rebound after the most embarrassing loss in school history? Or do the players, back in school and primed for a national championship run that ended before it began, let the Appalachian State loss hang with them? Everyone will be curious to find out, because if Michigan lets this one get away, the season may truly be a train wreck.<br /><br />And wouldn’t you know it – Oregon has the same type of attack that tortured the Wolverines last week. Dennis Dixon is a mobile quarterback who can make plays with his legs and his arm, and the Ducks have speedy wideouts who can do damage on the perimeter. The problem for Oregon is its defense. Despite beating Houston by three touchdowns in Eugene last week, the Ducks defense gave up 545 yards of offense. The Wolverines, for all that can be said about them, still have an offense with as many weapons as any attack in college football. Dixon and his troops may have to pace themselves up and down the field in this one, because the last thing the Oregon defense wants to see is Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Mario Manningham on the field more than necessary.<br /><strong><br />The pick:</strong> Michigan 41, Oregon 24<br /><br /><strong>3. South Carolina (+4) at Georgia</strong><br /> 5:45 p.m. EST, ESPN2<br /><br />This has to be one of the strangest lines in recent memory. South Carolina wins by a lackluster 28-14 margin against Louisiana-Lafayette, while Georgia smokes chic upset pick Oklahoma State 35-14. The Gamecocks couldn’t score a point at home against the Bulldogs last year, yet somehow come into this game being given just home-field advantage points from Georgia.<br /><br />Blake Mitchell is back at quarterback for South Carolina after serving a one-game academic suspension last week, and while he did come on strong at the end of last year, he also struggled big-time early in 2006, including, you guessed it, against Georgia. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford looked like the star recruit that he once was in the ‘Dawgs opening win against Oklahoma State and Georgia’s defense shut down the Cowboys completely in the second half. A lot will depend on Mitchell’s return to the lineup, but Spurrier’s previously feted offenses have come up remarkably short in big games since he’s been in Columbia. Don’t expect that to change in this one.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> Georgia 22, South Carolina 10<br /><br /><strong>2. Virginia Tech (+12.5) at LSU</strong><br /> 9:15 p.m. EST, ESPN<br /><br />LSU rolled to a 45-0 win against Mississippi State in the kickoff to the 2007 college football season, intercepting Bulldogs quarterback Michael Henig six times. It was a clash of one of the game’s top defenses, LSU, against far and away one of the sport’s worst offenses, so it’s a bit premature to be drooling over how good the Tiger defense truly is.<br /><br />That said, it isn’t exactly getting the ’99 Rams rolling into Baton Rouge this week. Quarterback Sean Glennon and the Hokies’ offense looked sluggish at best in their opening victory over East Carolina. And while you could blame some of that on the emotional tone of playing the team’s first game in Blacksburg since April’s senseless shootings, that excuse is out the window for this one. All-conference running back Brandon Ore will have to do better than his three yards-per-carry average if Virginia Tech is to hang with the Tigers. On the other side of the ball, LSU didn’t quite light things up against Mississippi State offensively. And the Hokies have quite a stout defense themselves, to go along with their always stellar special teams. A blocked punt or field goal could turn the tide down on the Bayou.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> LSU 20, Virginia Tech 13<br /><br /><strong>1. TCU (+9) at Texas<br /></strong> 7:00 p.m. EST, Fox Sports Net<br /><br />This is what we like to call a measuring stick game. Lesser program gets its shot at a big boy to measure where it’s at as a team. South Florida vs. Auburn is sort of on that level, but this one is different because it’s an intrastate clash. If TCU beats Texas in Austin, Longhorns fans may not care if they beat Oklahoma and win the rest of their games. They’ll have to live with having lost to a lesser program, from the same state, in their house, for, well, the foreseeable future. The two aren’t currently scheduled to meet again.<br /><br />Texas looked less than inspired in its opening win against Arkansas State, and needed what the Big 12 later admitted was an incorrect call on an onsides kick to ensure victory. Colt McCoy looked subpar again after having closed an otherwise remarkable freshman season poorly. The Horned Frogs have beaten Oklahoma and Texas Tech in the past two years, and adding the Longhorns to their list may just elevate their program to another level. One of the nation’s best defenses expects star defensive end Tommy Blake back for the game after he sat out the Frogs opener against Baylor, and they’ll need him. Don’t expect McCoy to struggle again.<br /><br /><strong>The pick:</strong> Texas 27, TCU 25<br /><br /><strong>Bonus locks of the week: </strong>San Jose State (+17.5) at Kansas State<br /> Arizona State (-15) over Colorado<br /> Georgia (-4) over South CarolinaSouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-26669298046452038502007-09-07T23:06:00.000-04:002007-09-07T23:20:17.257-04:00NFL preview, part IV<em>Our seasons hinge on the potentially shaky play of our quarterbacks, but we’ll never admit it</em><br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.bowlersparadise.com/shop/towels/images/nfl_tennessee_titans.jpg"><img style="WIDTH: 105px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 102px" height="113" alt="" src="http://www.bowlersparadise.com/shop/towels/images/nfl_tennessee_titans.jpg" border="0" /></a>18. Tennessee Titans</strong><br /><br />The Titans were outscored by nearly five points per game last season, and for all the accolades he received, Vince Young threw more interceptions than touchdowns and had a quarterback rating of 66.7, not quite Steve Young-esque. But possibly more so than any other player in the league, stats don’t always tell the true story with Young. Sure, interceptions are killers in any language, but Young can win games throwing for 87 yards, as he did during an October win over Houston, or 85 yards, as he did in a December victory over the Jaguars (granted, the Titans scored five touchdowns via defense or special teams in those games, but Young did not turn the ball over).<br /><br />But when you’re either sneaking out wins or getting blown out, 8-8 can seem a bit hollow. And Tennessee didn’t exactly inspire a load of confidence that they can improve either area with their offseason. Pacman Jones, of course, started things off with a bang (no pun intended) by getting himself suspended for the entire year. Travis Henry was cut after not agreeing to take a pay cut, and now the three-headed tailback monster of LenDale White, Chris Brown and rookie Chris Henry roams the backfield. Bobby Wade and Drew Bennett left via free agency, and the starting receivers are now unproven Brandon Jones and 34-year-old Eric Moulds.<br /><br />On defense, Nick Harper was brought over from division-rival Indianapolis and Ryan Fowler, who played sparingly in Dallas, will now start at middle linebacker. The team has Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch up front to get into the backfield, and they’ll need to with their shutdown corner having been shut out of the season by commissioner Roger Goodell.<br /><br />Young is capable of carrying a team on his back, but with the lack of playmakers around him, defenses will be able to go all out in containing him. Look for spies all over the field from the opposition and teams throwing blitzes from every possible angle at the second-year QB. Expect the Titans to slide from last year based on reality catching up with them, and don’t be surprised if Young is at or near the top of the league in turnovers.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> One of the tailbacks emerges as a legit replacement for Henry, one of the two rookie receivers forces his way into the lineup, defense continues to create turnovers<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Young suffers a sophomore slump, White, Brown and Henry continue to split carries, loss of Jones kills the return game<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 7-9, third in the AFC South<br /><strong><a href="http://www.newjerseybrasil.com/tickets-of-america/New-York-Jets.png"><img style="WIDTH: 108px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 101px" height="119" alt="" src="http://www.newjerseybrasil.com/tickets-of-america/New-York-Jets.png" border="0" /></a>17. New York Jets</strong><br /><br />The Jets were the surprise of the league a year ago. Almost universally picked to be one of the three worst teams in the NFL, they rallied under first-year head coach Eric Mangini and made the playoffs. But much like Peter Parker’s Uncle Ben told him, “with great power comes great responsibility.” Or, in the NFL equivalent of Uncle Ben’s dying words, “with a great season comes a difficult schedule.” That is just one of the challenges the Jets will face, but perhaps the most important is their situation at quarterback.<br /><br />Chad Pennington has never had the world’s strongest arm, and with shoulder problems that have bothered him in recent years, it’s only gotten worse. The Jets have two fast receivers in the starting lineup, Jerrico Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles, and Pennington’s pop-gun arm makes it a bit difficult for the team to utilize the speed of their two best wideouts.<br /><br />The Jets made a solid move to bring in Thomas Jones in the offseason, who should give them Curtis Martin-like stability in the backfield. Well, maybe not that good, but better than throwing Cedric Houston out there. Leon Washington, the team’s leading rusher a year ago, should provide a nice third-down option and adds the speed the Jones may lack.<br /><br />The defense picked up what should be a great one with the drafting of Pitt cornerback Darrelle Revis. It might take a year, but he should be able to lock down his half of the field for the next 10 years. Kenyon Coleman comes over from Dallas to line up opposite Shaun Ellis at defensive end, and the mammoth DeWayne Robertson mans the nose in the Jets’ 3-4 setup.<br /><br />The season will come down to how effective Pennington can be. Kellen Clemens, the team’s second-round draft pick from Oregon, looked sharp in the preseason and raised more than a few eyebrows that he should be the starter sooner rather than later. But Pennington has the respect of his teammates and is a strong presence in the locker room. A few critical interceptions though, and Mangini might at least have something to think about.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Jones’ calf muscle isn’t a problem, Revis helps out on special teams and is a starter at corner, Pennington doesn’t make major mistakes<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Injury-prone stars live up to their billing, D’Brickashaw Ferguson doesn’t turn into a franchise left tackle<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 8-8, second in the AFC East<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.floridabrasil.com/tickets-florida/Jacksonville-Jaguars.png"><img style="WIDTH: 114px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 107px" height="114" alt="" src="http://www.floridabrasil.com/tickets-florida/Jacksonville-Jaguars.png" border="0" /></a>16. Jacksonville Jaguars<br /></strong><br />Not many teams cut a former first-round pick who had been their four-year starting quarterback as long as he’s been healthy with just one week to go before the start of a new season. But the Jaguars have always been a little bit different. This is a team who took a college quarterback in the first round two years ago and almost immediately made him their No. 1 receiver.<br /><br />So Byron Leftwich is out and David Garrard is in. Neither is a great quarterback, but Garrard is a better fit for this team. He’s slightly more accurate, but most importantly, far more mobile. And with a team that has a bunch of big, slow wideouts, that’s an important factor. Dennis Northcutt was brought in from Cleveland to make an impact in the return game and at receiver, and he’s somehow worked his way to the top guy on the depth chart. Northcutt was a colossal disappointment in Cleveland, and that speaks more to what a disaster Reggie Williams and Matt Jones have been than anything else.<br /><br />Ernest Wilford has developed into a decent red-zone threat, but he still only had two touchdowns a year ago. Jones may be listed behind Wilford simply because he’s their fastest receiver and is better suited for the slot.<br /><br />The backfield is a strength, with the great-if-healthy Fred Taylor and jack-of-all-trades Maurice Jones-Drew. If Taylor’s groin acts up, which, along with Columbus Day, seems to occur annually in October, the Jags finally have a dependable backup at tailback. Tight end Marcedes Lewis, like Jones-Drew a product of UCLA, could break out in his second year if Jack Del Rio decides to utilize him more than the 13 times he caught the ball a year ago.<br /><br />The defense is excellent. Reggie Nelson, the hard-hitting rookie safety from Florida, should step right into the lineup and Rashean Mathis is one of the three or four best corners in the league. The linebackers aren’t spectacular but the defensive line has the best tackle combination in the league with Marcus Stroud and John Henderson.<br /><br />At least Garrard knows he’s the guy going into the season. Ever since Leftwich missed a few weeks in 2005 and Garrard filled in admirably, both guys have been looking over their shoulders. But if Garrard goes down, there’s not really anyone behind him.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Garrard benefits from starting a full year, Jones-Drew becomes even more of a running threat, one of the receivers steps up<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Taylor finds himself sidelined, Dennis Northcutt actually plays regularly, Lewis is ignored in the passing game<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 8-8, second in the AFC South<br /><strong><a href="http://www.bowlersparadise.com/shop/towels/images/nfl_cincinnati_bengals.jpg"><img style="WIDTH: 120px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 108px" height="110" alt="" src="http://www.bowlersparadise.com/shop/towels/images/nfl_cincinnati_bengals.jpg" border="0" /></a>15. Cincinnati Bengals</strong><br /><br />Bad boys, bad boys, whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do when they…. Sorry, force of habit. The Bengals are actually some of the league’s more well-behaved citizens these days. After having nine players arrested in a women’s average gestation period, the Bengals then went <em>five</em> whole months getting only one player cuffed. And that was almost <em>three</em> months ago. Of course, that figure serves only as the number of players arrested, not the number of arrests, which, thanks to wide receiver Chris Henry’s indiscretions, is too high for us here at Give and Go to count. It should be noted, however, that Eric Steinbach, arrested for your run-of-the-mill BUI (boating under the influence), has taken his act, er, services, to Cleveland. Lake Erie boaters beware.<br /><br />But back to Henry. While he’s only the third receiver on the Bengals’ roster, and is behind maybe the best 1-2 wideout punch in football, there is virtually no depth behind Henry, so his being suspended for the first eight games of the season could be a bigger problem than some may think. In addition, the aforementioned Steinbach is gone and Rich Brahm retired. Second-round pick Kenny Irons went down with an ACL tear in the team’s first preseason game, so there goes Rudi Johnson’s change-of-pace back. And if someone should happen to roll up on Carson Palmer’s leg this year? The backup is newly acquired Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick.<br /><br />Now, the defense. The pass defense was the worst in football a year ago and didn’t do a whole heck of a lot to patch things up. Leon Hall was drafted in the first round but he didn’t look like much of a savior in the last two games in his college career. Justin Smith is about the only guy in the front seven who is able to get consistent pressure in the backfield, but he’s a good notch below the league’s top-tier defensive ends.<br /><br />So what’s actually to like about the Bengals? Still the passing game. Palmer is one of the three or five best quarterbacks in the league and he’s got two stars to throw to in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Rudi Johnson is one of the league’s most consistent if unspectacular running backs. They’ll put up enough points to win their share of games in spite of their defense. But it’s unrealistic to think this is a division champion considering their off-the-field problems and lack of ability to stop the pass.<br /><strong><br />Best case:</strong> Tab Perry becomes reliable as the third receiver in Henry’s absence, the secondary steps up<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Fitzpatrick is seen without a headset and a clipboard, Rudi Johnson starts to show signs of wear and tear, the line drops without Steinbach and Brahm<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 8-8, third in the AFC North<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.sportsteams.com/acbnet/stores/1/images/CarolinaPanthers.jpg"><img style="WIDTH: 122px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 85px" height="92" alt="" src="http://www.sportsteams.com/acbnet/stores/1/images/CarolinaPanthers.jpg" border="0" /></a>14. Carolina Panthers</strong><br /><br />Jake Delhomme has looked awfully human since nearly leading the Panthers to a great comeback in Super Bowl XXXVIII against New England. His numbers haven’t been bad, but he got banged up toward the end of last year and has had some injury issues in the preaseason, although they don’t appear to be serious. And Delhomme will be 33 by the time the playoffs roll around, which is hard to believe considering he’s only been the Panthers’ starter for four years since being a fixture on the bench in New Orleans.<br /><br />The Panthers signed David Carr to give themselves a solid option behind Delhomme, but what it may turn into is a good, old-fashioned quarterback competition. Delhomme hasn’t had anyone competent looking over his should until now (sorry, Chris Weinke).<br /><br />This is still a talented team, and they were a chic pick to make it back to the Super Bowl last year before being derailed by injuries. There are two talented running backs behind whomever’s under center, the injury-waiting-to-happen DeShaun Foster, and second-year-breakout-candidate DeAngelo Williams. Look for Williams to emerge as the prefix back of choice whether Foster stays healthy or not. Steve Smith is the most explosive receiver in the league, but the problem is finding a complement to his speed. Dwayne Jarrett was drafted in the second round to replace former possession receiver of choice Keyshawn Johnson, and Keary Colbert and Drew Carter have shown some potential in their brief careers.<br /><br />The defense should be strong as usual. The key will again be the health of the defensive line. Julius Peppers, Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker when healthy, are three of the better pass rushers in the league on the defensive front, but they have had seasons derailed by injury in the past. The same can be said for the man in the middle behind them, Dan Morgan, whose entire career has been one big injury. Morgan’s fellow alum from “The U,” first-rounder Jon Beason should help solidify the linebacking unit.<br /><br />But something doesn’t feel quite right about this team. You wonder if they remember how to win. They’ve been so fragile since their Super Bowl year that they haven’t gotten a full year from their stars, save for Steve Smith, and it seems unrealistic to assume they can all stay healthy again.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Delhomme reverts to 2004 form, Colbert or Jarrett stars as the “other” receiver, Beason makes an early impact<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> John Fox finds himself picking between QBs, injuries start to roll in, Williams doesn’t take the job away from Foster<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 8-8, second in the NFC SouthSouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-53265643405973408242007-09-05T02:19:00.000-04:002007-09-05T02:30:40.039-04:00NFL preview, part III<em>We play in the NFC, so we know we have a chance!</em><br /><strong><br /><a href="http://sports.gearlive.com/blogimages/detroit_lions.jpg"><img style="WIDTH: 132px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 94px" height="92" alt="" src="http://sports.gearlive.com/blogimages/detroit_lions.jpg" border="0" /></a>23. Detroit Lions</strong><br /><br />There is finally something resembling optimism in the Motor City, but it’s safe to call that a very, very guarded optimism. The Lions didn’t have the first pick in April’s NFL Draft, but they wound up with the best player, Georgia Tech wideout Calvin Johnson. Johnson is the fourth receiver taken by the Lions in the first round in the last five drafts, and two of those are no longer with the team (Charles Rogers is no longer in the league). It appears they finally have things right on the perimeter though, with Mike Martz’s pass-happy system and three solid pass-catchers (Johnson, Roy Williams and Mike Furrey) to guide the team down the field.<br /><br />But then the question marks start to roll in. Jon Kitna is being counted on to get those aforementioned receivers the ball, and to his credit, he did so with great regularity last year. However, if there’s ever been a quarterback who also tends to give the ball to the other team with great regularity, it’s Kitna, who has thrown 126 interceptions and fumbled the ball 83 times in 108 NFL games. He turned the ball over 31 times last year, and unfortunately for Detroit, when that happens, something called the Lions defense is forced to come onto the field.<br /><br />The defense allowed the third-most points in the league last year, then traded its best defender, cornerback Dre Bly, to Denver for running back Tatum Bell. They did make an underrated free agent signing in getting defensive end Dewayne White from Tampa Bay, but this is a unit that needed more of a turnover than what they got. They did draft three cornerbacks, a defensive tackle and a linebacker, but none of those rookies looks ready to help immediately.<br /><br />Ernie Sims is definitely a solid presence in the middle of the defense, and it looks like, gasp!, Matt Millen may have gotten a first-rounder right in the midst of his wide receiver fetish. But the secondary, minus Bly, is going to be a major concern.<br /><br />Also hanging over this team is the strange sense that the offensive coordinator, Martz, is actually running the team rather than its head coach, Rod Marinelli. Martz speaks to the media and is generally given credit for what the team actually does right, but then again, most of what’s right with the team is the part for which he’s responsible.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Kitna throws for 4,500 yards and protects the ball (somewhat), Tatum Bell or Kevin Jones emerges as a solid back, the Steel Curtain in its prime replaces the Lions’ current defense<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> The defense doesn’t improve, Johnson is more Mike Williams or Charles Rogers than Roy Williams, Kitna gets turnover happy<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 6-10, last place in the NFC North<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/c/c8/Birdheadwhite.jpg"><img style="WIDTH: 122px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 105px" height="101" alt="" src="http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/c/c8/Birdheadwhite.jpg" border="0" /></a>22. Arizona Cardinals</strong><br /><br />For the past two years it’s been supposed to click for the Cardinals. First, it was the acquisition of Kurt Warner to go along with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald and “stud” rookie runner J.J. Arrington (isn’t he the guy who created Lost?). Then it was the drafting of Matt Leinart and the addition of Edgerrin James. This year, it’s the drafting of a stud right tackle, Levi Brown, to protect southpaw Leinart’s blind side, along with new head coach Ken Whisenhunt, an offensive guru, and assistant Russ Grimm to help guide the offensive line.<br /><br />Notice not one defensive player mentioned in that last paragraph? While the Cards have been wheeling and dealing to come up with the greatest show on field turf on offense, defense, well it hasn’t exactly been a priority in the desert. They did draft Alan Branch in the second round of the draft, and he should be a fixture on the defensive line for years to come. They also took Florida State linebacker Buster Davis in the third round…and he didn’t make the team. That was it during the draft as far as defense for the Cards.<br /><br />They added marginal safety Terrence Holt (from the Lions!) and marginal corner Roderick Hood in free agency, but pass rushing specialist Chike Okeafor may miss the entire season with a biceps tear. So things aren’t likely to get better for the Cards on defense.<br /><br />The offense has the potential to be explosive. Leinart came on strong at the end of last year and he has two of the best receivers in the game to throw to in Boldin and Fitzgerald. Leonard Pope should emerge as a nice safety blanket at tight end, and he certainly has the size and speed to go downfield. What the team needs is James to bounce back and look more like he did with the Colts in terms of his ability to carry tacklers and control the football. He was a pass-catching threat with the Colts as well, and that dropped off drastically last year. If he can consistently provide Leinart with a safety valve underneath, the Cardinals could be the most complete offense in the NFC.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Leinart takes the leap, James averages more than 3.4 yards per carry, the defense doesn’t have to be on the field very often<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> One of the wideouts gets injured, Brown and Branch don’t help, James looks like he’s lost another step<br /><strong>The pick:</strong> 6-10, last place in the NFC West<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/a/a1/WashingtonRedskins_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 121px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 110px" height="121" alt="" src="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/a/a1/WashingtonRedskins_100.png" border="0" /></a>21. Washington Redskins</strong><br /><br />The Redskins gave up more yards last year than any NFC team, somewhat hard to believe for a team with such a solid secondary, and considering the unit was the ninth best in the league in 2005. And that secondary got better in the offseason, adding corners Fred Smoot, Jerametrius Butler and David Macklin, and the real coup, stud rookie safety LaRon Landry from LSU.<br /><br />The problem is the defensive line, which couldn’t generate any pressure last season and returns virtually intact in 2007. Adding London Fletcher at middle linebacker is nice, but he’s more of a cover guy in the middle. The depth at corner is now excellent should Carlos Rogers or, more likely, Shawn Springs get injured. And the safeties, Landry and Sean Taylor, are the best duo in the league.<br /><br />Jason Campbell started seven times last season and looked serviceable if not exceptional. But whereas a Redskins team with a stout defense three or four years ago might have relied on its quarterback to simply manage the game, this version of the squad needs its quarterback, and his speedy receivers, to make plays.<br /><br />Clinton Portis held up well in his first four years in the league before breaking his hand last year. This summer he’s had some knee tendonitis, but Ladell Betts is solid insurance should Portis not be able to give it a full go. That being said, Portis is still the Redskins’ best and fastest ball carrier, and if they’re to have any success in 2007, he’ll have to be relatively healthy.<br /><br />The receivers are quick but inconsistent. Santana Moss had seven games in which he posted less than 40 yards last season after having an All-Pro-caliber 2005. Antwaan Randle El and particularly Brandon Lloyd were disasters last year after signing as free agents. Campbell will rely heavily on tight end Chris Cooley, who’s really an H-back but has done just fine over the middle the last few years.<br /><br />You have to wonder whether Joe Gibbs still has the ability to coach effectively as he did nearly two decades earlier. Since coming back, he hasn’t shown it, but then again, Daniel Snyder wasn’t running things when Gibbs was winning Super Bowls either.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Portis stays healthy, Randle El contributes big on special teams, defensive line finally gets some pressure in the backfield<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Campbell’s receivers abandon him, corners are again forced to spend all day covering opposing wideouts<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 6-10, third in the NFC East<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/8/86/MinnesotaVikings_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 121px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 115px" height="117" alt="" src="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/8/86/MinnesotaVikings_100.png" border="0" /></a>20. Minnesota Vikings<br /></strong><br />Of all the shaky quarterback situations in the NFL, Minnesota’s might be the most likely to register on the Richter scale. Second-year QB Tarvaris Jackson is the guy, but no one knows what to expect from him. He looked pretty bad in four appearances and two starts in 2006. Perhaps coach Brad Childress was just adding some insurance in his recent acquisition of veteran Kelly Holcomb, or maybe he’s going to have a short leash with Jackson and wants a guy who has proven he can fill in for a decent length of time.<br /><br />On the plus side for Jackson, he has Chester Taylor and stud rookie running back Adrian Peterson to hand the ball to. On the downside, with Jackson being essentially a rookie starter, teams are going to crowd the box with eight or nine guys, and with good reason: he’s unproven and his receivers are one of the league’s worst units. But hey, with the drafting of Sidney Rice in the second round, the Vikings now have not one, but two, former South Carolina Gamecocks catching passes! The other, of course, is professional bust Troy Williamson, who Minnesota took with the seventh overall pick in 2005. If he’s not ready to step up this season, he might as well be written off.<br /><br />Defensively, the Vikings were impossible to run on in 2006, allowing an amazing 61 yards rushing to lead the league by a mile. Then again, they allowed the most passing yards in the league, so maybe teams just didn’t even think of running the ball, instead salivating over their maligned secondary.<br /><br />The good news is the secondary should improve. Antoine Winfield is a solid presence at corner and second-year man Cedric Griffin has improved greatly in the offseason. Darren Sharper is a good guy to have at safety, and adding Mike Doss should help add some depth in the defensive backfield.<br /><br />Losing defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin to the Steelers will hurt big-time, as it remains to be seen if Brad Childress is cut out to be an NFL head coach. He doesn’t seem to have earned the respect of his players, and with a young team on offense, that could be a situation to monitor as the year progresses.<br /><strong><br />Best case:</strong> The secondary gets to the middle of the pack and doesn’t let QBs feast on them all day, Rice and Williamson start catching passes, Peterson looks so good he limits Taylor’s carries<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Jackson looks lost and Childress refuses to turn to Holcomb, the run defense proves to have been a fluke, the team turns on Childress<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 6-10, third in the NFC North<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://askfactmaster.com/images/en/f/f3/GreenBayPackers_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 114px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 103px" height="107" alt="" src="http://askfactmaster.com/images/en/f/f3/GreenBayPackers_100.png" border="0" /></a>19. Green Bay Packers</strong><br /><br />You get the feeling that like Joe Paterno, Brett Favre is sticking around hoping for one more big winner. Of course, Paterno is 80, and with Favre having turned a mere 73, maybe he’s got a few years more than JoePa left to wait.<br /><br />In all seriousness, Favre’s accuracy is slipping, his interceptions are rising (though he was much better taking care of the ball last year as opposed to his unfathomable total of 29 picks in 2005), and his decision-making is eroding.<br /><br />Ahman Green is gone to take the load off Favre, and replacing him is Brandon Jackson, a third-round pick from Nebraska, along with holdover Vernand Morency. Neither is going to remind anyone of Barry Sanders. But at least one of them will have to develop into a reliable back on first and second downs in order for this team to have any sort of balance. Otherwise, it’ll be Favre slinging the ball downfield 40 times a game, sometimes to Donald Driver, and most of the rest of the time, to the other team.<br /><br />The defense allowed its fair amount of yardage last year, but only Baltimore and Chicago forced more turnovers. Quite a surprise for a unit that has historically resembled one of the more well-known varieties of cheese that Wisconsin produces. Odds are the Packers won’t force 38 turnovers again though, so more of those drives that ceased as opponents entered the red zone will result in points this year.<br /><br />And that means gun-slinging Favre will be back this year. Rookie James Jones has had a strong preseason and Greg Jennings had a great first half last year, so defenses won’t be able to key on Driver as much. But after all those years, and all those consecutive starts, will Favre’s body hold up this fall as he turns 38? With Aaron Rodgers itching to prove himself after spending his first two years holding a clipboard, maybe Favre hitting the bench with a pulled groin wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Cheeseheads.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> The two skill position rookies produce, Favre takes care of the football, the turnovers keep on coming<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Team struggles to find a running game, Favre struggles and stays in the lineup, defense returns to regular Packer form <div><div><div><div><div><strong>The verdict:</strong> 7-9, second in the NFC North</div></div></div></div></div>SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-53558688188124019702007-09-05T01:36:00.000-04:002007-09-05T01:44:57.770-04:00NFL preview, part II<em>It doesn’t look good, but SOMEONE always goes from the outhouse to the penthouse…right?<br /></em><br /><strong><a href="http://www.floridabrasil.com/tickets-florida/Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers.png"><img style="WIDTH: 104px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 97px" height="101" alt="" src="http://www.floridabrasil.com/tickets-florida/Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers.png" border="0" /></a>27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers</strong><br /><br />It’s safe to say the honeymoon is over on the Gulf Coast for Jon Gruden, who has led the team to a 27-37 record since the start of the 2003 season after winning the Super Bowl in his first year in Tampa, 2002. Injuries played a key role in the team’s failures in 2006, with Chris Simms’ ruptured spleen three games in leading the way. The franchise has been in a perpetual state of malaise under center, even winning their Super Bowl despite featuring one of the two or three worst starting quarterbacks to win the big game. Luke McCown, Brian Griese, Simms and Bruce Gradkowski have now given way to free agent Jeff Garcia, who, at 37, is a Band-Aid at best for the Tampa passing game.<br /><br />The worst thing that can be said about a non-contending team in the NFL is that they’re old, and that is exactly what the Bucs are. Their two defensive stalwarts for the past decade, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber, are past their primes, and they just signed over-the-hill Jeremiah Trotter to join Brooks in the linebacking corps. Joey Galloway, their most efficient offensive threat, is their leading receiver, but he’s 35, and is bound to start becoming less effective quickly considering his most valuable trait is his speed. David Boston peaked six years ago and Ike Hilliard has been past his prime for a while. Maurice Stovall is in his second year, but he’s the lone young threat at wideout.<br /><br />Cadillac Williams fell off last year after a solid rookie season, though a weak offensive line certainly had something to do with his drop in production. He’ll need to be a lot better if the Bucs are to have much of a chance offensively, but with the lack of threats at receiver, he’ll be facing eight-man fronts consistently.<br /><br />Cato June and Kevin Carter were signed to improve the defense, but Simeon Rice was cut, partially due to injury and partially because he didn’t want to take a pay cut. Gaines Adams, the team’s first-round draft pick, should help make up for the loss of Rice, but this isn’t the dominant Bucs’ defense of five years ago.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Garcia’s mobility provides a spark the other QBs couldn’t, Williams rebounds, Adams looks like a young Rice<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Age at major positions shows, players become more disenchanted with Gruden<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 5-11, last place in the NFC South<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.sportsfanfare.net/images/small/CD-NFL-MIA-2MAG.JPG"><img style="WIDTH: 103px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 97px" height="117" alt="" src="http://www.sportsfanfare.net/images/small/CD-NFL-MIA-2MAG.JPG" border="0" /></a>26. Miami Dolphins</strong><br /><br />You have to wonder what the Dolphins would look like had they made the decision to sign Drew Brees rather than trade for Daunte Culpepper in March 2006. Culpepper was a bust last year and is now an Oakland Raider, while Brees was a Pro Bowler in his first year in New Orleans. Miami’s offensive line has been bad since before Dan Marino retired, and the unit will break in three new starters this year.<br /><br />Ronnie Brown, part of Auburn’s vaunted running back tandem in college along with Cadillac Williams, didn’t really improve last year, and his yards per carry average was slightly worse than his rookie year. Now, Cam Cameron-favorite Jessie Chatman appears to be 1B to Brown’s 1A on the depth chart. With the line either will be running behind, it may not matter much who is toting the ball.<br /><br />Aside from Nick Saban’s practically overnight departure to Tuscaloosa and the subsequent hiring of Cameron, the biggest news to come out of south Florida this offseason was the team’s decision to pass over Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn to select Ohio State kick returner, umm, wide receiver, Ted Ginn Jr. The thinking was that with the way guys like Devin Hester have been changing games with their kick return abilities, Ginn could make the difference in close games for the Dolphins.<br /><br />Unfortunately, Cameron forgot that Hester was selected at the end of the second round, not in the top 10 of the entire draft. And, oh yeah, the team Hester went to was already pretty good. Miami did get its signal-caller of the future in the second round in BYU’s John Beck, who is already 26 years old. The present belongs to 37-year-old Trent Green, brought over from Kansas City after a courtship longer than those preceding some marriages.<br /><br />The defense is aging but still effective, at least concerning the front seven. Jason Taylor had his best year as a pro in 2006, and Zach Thomas is a stalwart at middle linebacker. Joey Porter, past his prime but still capable of producing a big play here and there, came over from Pittsburgh. But the secondary is shaky, meaning Taylor and company will need to get consistent pressure or else this defense will be giving up quite a few big pass plays.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Green gets back in rhythm after missing much of ’06, Ginn does more than see the field, Taylor plays like he did a year ago<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Offensive line fails to jell, Chris Chambers continues to disappoint, secondary gets burned too often<br /><strong>The pick:</strong> 5-11, last place in the AFC East<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/4/41/AtlantaFalcons_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 97px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 97px" height="100" alt="" src="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/4/41/AtlantaFalcons_100.png" border="0" /></a>25. Atlanta Falcons</strong><br /><br />After having gone through perhaps the most tumultuous offseason in the history of the NFL, everyone has written off the Falcons, and perhaps with good merit. The face of their franchise is facing hard time for dog-fighting, new coach Bobby Petrino has never been an NFL head coach, and now, the reason he was brought in is on his way to a federal penitentiary. Hey, at least Falcons owner Arthur Blank can’t really have a short leash with Petrino, considering the circumstances.<br /><br />But the Falcons haven’t lost all of their bite offensively (and that concludes the bad dog-fighting pun section of this preview). Jerious Norwood was impressive as a rookie in a backfield that includes perennial jitterbug Warrick Dunn. The problem has been at receiver, where Michael Jenkins and Roddy White have been disappointments considering both were picked in the first round. Veteran Joe Horn was brought in to add some consistency to the passing game, which is now being led by Joey Harrington.<br /><br />Like his new core of receivers, Harrington certainly didn’t live up to his lofty draft status in Detroit. But he showed some signs of improvement last year in Miami, which hasn’t exactly been a quarterback’s best friend either. He’s certainly a fiery guy who would give anything to succeed, and he should have more of a chance to do that in Atlanta than he ever did in Motown.<br /><br />The defense is average but not a unit without some playmakers. Gone is defensive end Patrick Kerney, who spent eight good years in Atlanta, but was beginning to slip a bit. Ed Hartwell, who had a disappointing year after coming over from Baltimore, is now a Bengal. The team drafted Arkansas end Jamaal Anderson in the first round, and he’ll be a starter from day one. The perpetually overrated DeAngelo Hall leads the secondary. By no means is he a bad player, but he’s certainly not the all-knowing, lock-down guy that he thinks he is. He won’t see many passes thrown his way anyway with journeyman Lewis Sanders patrolling the other side in the secondary.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Harrington finally puts it together, Horn plays younger than 35 and helps the other receivers, Norwood breaks out<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Vick situation proves too much to overcome, running game goes south, Anderson can’t make an impact immediately<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 6-10, third in the NFC South<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/5/5f/BuffaloBills_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 100px; CURSOR: hand" height="96" alt="" src="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/5/5f/BuffaloBills_100.png" border="0" /></a>24. Buffalo Bills</strong><br /><br />If the Bills played in the NFC, they’d have a decent shot of making the playoffs. But they don’t, and here at Give and Go we judge teams by wins and losses, and they’re not going to win very many games. Their schedule is beyond brutal, particularly early, when they play six 2006 playoff teams in their first eight games (and the other two are against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, which could have easily joined that group). And if there’s one thing this team needs for its confidence, it’s a good start.<br /><br />The Bills’ offensive line is coming together nicely, with the additions of Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker to go along with converted tight end Jason Peters, who came on strong last year in western New York. And now that Willis McGahee is in Baltimore, they’ll have a newer, shiftier back to block for in rookie Marshawn Lynch. Lynch, however, struggled mightily in the preseason, but let’s see how he looks once the games matter before we go bashing that pick.<br /><br />Lee Evans is the most underrated receiver in football, and J.P. Losman, who early on looked exactly like the hotheaded problem child he often was at Tulane, actually had a nice year in 2006. When Losman had a quarterback rating above 90, the Bills were 6-0. There isn’t much behind Evans at receiver, with Peerless Price back for a second, much less successful tour of duty with the team, and Josh Reed and professional kick returner Roscoe Parrish behind him.<br /><br />Paul Posluszny was a steal in the second round for the Bills, as he will run the defense from his middle linebacker position right away. Unfortunately, gone are Nate Clements, Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher. The Bills weren’t much more than an average defense with those three, so it’s not realistic to expect this unit to be any better this year. With that said, this isn’t a bad team, but it still has holes to fill and with their schedule, 2008 is what they should look toward.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Lynch has a 1200-yard rookie season and the Bills turn into a ball-control offense, Losman doesn’t make mistakes, Posluszny is defensive rookie of the year<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Evans is again a one-man show on offense, loss of Clements and the two linebackers is too much to make up for<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 6-10, third in the AFC East <div> </div>SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-78788547423749098232007-09-04T03:20:00.000-04:002007-09-04T03:24:26.176-04:00Top 25, Week of 9/4We'll get back to the NFL preview countdown tomorrow, but as for now, here is my top 25 ballot after the first week of the college football season.<br /><br />1. USC<br />2. LSU<br />3. West Virginia<br />4. Louisville<br />5. Oklahoma<br />6. Florida<br />7. Wisconsin<br />8. Texas<br />9. California<br />10. Virginia Tech<br />11. Penn State<br />12. Ohio State<br />13. Georgia<br />14. Rutgers<br />15. UCLA<br />16. Nebraska<br />17. TCU<br />18. Arkansas<br />19. Georgia Tech<br />20. Auburn<br />21. Tennessee<br />22. Michigan<br />23. Hawaii<br />24. Boise State<br />25. Oregon<br /><br />Just missed the cut: Clemson, Texas A&M<br /><br />- Florida State had no business being ranked going into the week and proved it tonight against Clemson. That being said, Clemson was on its way into the poll before a dreadful second half and near-collapse against the 'Noles. I continue to be impressed with Oregon, and am very interested to see how the Ducks handle what should be a wild matchup in Ann Arbor this week.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-31374181988493926712007-08-31T17:32:00.000-04:002007-08-31T18:08:31.843-04:002007 NFL PreviewLike a sold-out concert tour with three big-name performers, the gods of football will spend the next few weekends rolling out a package of pigskin acts in reverse order of demand. High school football has already gotten started in many parts of the country, major college football gets its first full slate of games in tomorrow, and then, one week later, the NFL gets under way in its entirety. Here at Give-and-Go, we’ll spend the next few weeks breaking down the NFL in a tiered system designed to give you an idea of who’s got a shot at playing in January, who’s plodding along toward mediocrity, and who’ll be spending a lot of time in Fayetteville, Ark., scouting Darren McFadden. And much like any good musical montage, we’ll save the best for last. In reverse order of hope, away we go…<br /><br /><em><span style="font-family:arial;">Start charging $6 per hot dog and $20 for a foam finger, because you’re gonna need it for that signing bonus next April</span></em><br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/2/2b/KansasCityChiefs_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 113px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 97px" height="135" alt="" src="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/2/2b/KansasCityChiefs_100.png" border="0" /></a>32. Kansas City Chiefs<br /></strong><br />Boy, talk about some Hard Knocks. HBO’s latest darling of the documentary snuck into the playoffs last year at 9-7 thanks to the West Coast’s own version of Santa Claus, the San Francisco 49ers. Alex Smith and the boys stunned Denver in Mile High in overtime to close the regular season and the Chiefs’ reward was a backdoor entrance into a world of hurt via the Colts on Wild Card Weekend. The offseason saw the offensive line take a big step backwards, losing Willie Roaf to retirement and Jordan Black to the Texans in free agency. Damion McIntosh was brought in to replace Roaf at left tackle, but he suffered a knee injury during training camp and may miss the season opener.<br /><br />The man this makeshift line is supposed to be opening holes for is Larry Johnson, who should be no worse for the wear after holding out through most of the preseason. Now that his new, $43-million deal is done, he should be ready to go from opening week. Of course, if you want to question how healthy he’ll be after an NFL-record 416 carries last year, be my guest.<br /><br />The major problem lies at quarterback, where Trent Green was traded to Miami, leaving incumbent 11-year vet Damon Huard to battle second-year man Brodie Croyle for the starting job. Despite practically having the position handed to him on a platter, Croyle has all but attempted to give the job away during training camp, looking at best average and at worst atrocious in the preseason. And oh yeah, the defense. The unit that ranked 15th a year ago lost Sammy Knight and Lenny Walls, a definite hit for the secondary. Patrick Surtain and Ty Law are getting up there in age, and Surtain in particular has looked it. But most importantly, they have little to no depth if those guys go down. The linebacking core should be fine with the additions of Donnie Edwards and Nap Harris to go along with Derrick Johnson, but the defensive line is a mess outside of Tamba Hali. Rookie Tank Tyler will have to step up.<br /><br />Wide receiver is another trouble spot. Eddie Kennison is in his 12th year in the league, and rookie Dwayne Bowe held out during camp. He’ll need to contribute quickly because outside of Kennison and Samie Parker, there’s no dependable receiver (Tony Gonzalez notwithstanding) to throw to.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> LJ stays upright and motivated, Huard guts out some wins and the defense is average.<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Offensive line crumbles, cornerback tandem plays its age<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 4-12, last place in the AFC West<br /><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><br /><strong><a href="http://www.pc1inc.com/sportsfan/images/ClevelandBrowns.jpg"><img style="WIDTH: 119px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 82px" height="97" alt="" src="http://www.pc1inc.com/sportsfan/images/ClevelandBrowns.jpg" border="0" /></a>31. Cleveland Browns</strong><br /><br />Eight years after their reintroduction to the NFL, the Browns might finally be headed in the right direction. But they won’t be getting there yet. For the first time since they came back, the front office used a pick on an offensive tackle before the third round, nabbing Joe Thomas with the third overall pick. Nineteen picks later, they traded back into the first round to draft a quarterback worthy of Thomas’ protection, Brady Quinn.<br /><br />Unfortunately for the Browns, they’re in the right train but they’re headed down the wrong track. They are the only team in football that is far and away the worst team in their division. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati all have at least a legitimate shot of making the playoffs, something even the most die-hard brown and orange fan would be sluggish to admit. The other problem is their coach – Romeo Crennel is a fine coordinator but there are some serious issues with him as a head man. From the way he’s handled the quarterback derby in the preseason – which has more than somewhat resembled the four ugliest girls from high school vying for the homecoming crown – to the seemingly bizarre lack of communication he seems to have with, well, anyone on the sidelines, Crennel finds himself on the hot seat. And after the forgettable tenures of Chris Palmer and Butch Davis, this is a franchise that needs some stability at the top.<br /><br />Jamal Lewis has looked good since coming over from Baltimore in the offseason. Eric Steinbach will team with Thomas and possibly, at some point, the injured LeCharles Bentley to give the Browns an actual stable wall in front of whoever lines up under center. At least for the first few weeks that will be Charlie Frye, but the bet here is that by the time the team’s bye week rolls around in Week 7, Quinn will be the guy Crennel turns to.<br /><br />The defense is at least average and the offense features some playmakers who simply need someone to deliver them the football (Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, this means you), but in this division, this season, it’s not going to be pretty for a team that will sooner rather than later be breaking in a rookie quarterback.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Quinn forces his way into the lineup and develops a rapport with Edwards and Winslow, Lewis finds his old form<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Crennel refuses to settle on a starting QB well into the season, the defense wilts from the realization they can’t allow more than 14 points and expect to win<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 4-12, last place in the AFC North, and due to the trade for Quinn they'll send their first-rounder to Dallas<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.encyclopedia-online.info/wiki/images/e/eb/OaklandRaiders_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 100px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 85px" height="121" alt="" src="http://www.encyclopedia-online.info/wiki/images/e/eb/OaklandRaiders_100.png" border="0" /></a>30. Oakland Raiders<br /></strong><br />The Raiders accomplished what I like to call addition by demolition in the offseason. Art Shell is no longer coaching the team. That alone is good for probably three wins. Sure, they hired Lane Kiffin, who, at 32, is younger than eight of his players. But Kiffin has good NFL bloodlines (father Monte is the Bucs’ defensive coordinator), and, being the youngest coach in the history of the league, he’ll certainly be out to prove his worth. Randy Moss was dealt across the country to New England, and considering he played in Oakland like he was a shell of his former unstoppable self and was publicly unhappy (however understandable that may be), that can’t really hurt either.<br /><br />Fumble-prone Aaron Brooks is also long gone, and to replace him, the Raiders drafted quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick in the draft. Only thing is, Russell is still unsigned and having missed all of training camp and the preseason, his year is likely shot if and when he does sign.<br /><br />It would be nice if Robert Gallery morphed into something other than a turnstile. The former second overall pick in 2004 has struggled mightily at left tackle since his rookie season. He’s headed back to right tackle, where he dabbled early in his career, and his stepping up is critical for a line that has some pretty decent talent for which to block. LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes (once he returns from his four-game, substance-abuse suspension) are a nice one-two tandem at tailback, and rookie Michael Bush could be a fine goal-line presence in time.<br /><br />Daunte Culpepper looks to be the starter at quarterback as the preseason closes, which could be either great or terrible, depending on which version of himself he plans on channeling for the upcoming season: 2003-2004 Daunte, who lit up the league with 64 touchdown passes, or 2005-2006 Daunte, who was injured and ineffective with the Vikings and Dolphins. The defense, one of the league’s better units a year ago, returns mostly intact, and despite reason for optimism on the other side of the ball, they’ll need to dominate in order for the Raiders to approach seven wins.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Culpepper of old returns, Jerry Porter makes up for the absence of Moss, former busts Travis Taylor and Mike Williams combine with Porter to give Daunte lots of big targets<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Defense can’t repeat last year’s excellence, Culpepper channels his inner Aaron Brooks, Kiffin loses the players’ attention early<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 5-11, third in the AFC West<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://tanakatire.web.infoseek.co.jp/logo3/New_York_Giants.gif"><img style="WIDTH: 107px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 91px" height="104" alt="" src="http://tanakatire.web.infoseek.co.jp/logo3/New_York_Giants.gif" border="0" /></a>29. New York Giants<br /></strong><br />What can the Giants be doing here? They made the playoffs last season and nearly beat the Eagles in the Wild Card round? Two big reasons: Tiki Barber’s retirement (and conversely, the question marks surrounding his replacement Brandon Jacobs), and the growing reputation quarterback Eli Manning seems to be gaining as a poor leader in the huddle.<br /><br />Barber was one of the league’s best and most versatile backs for the last five seasons of his career. Jacobs is a hulking 6’4”, 264 pound back who runs upright and lacks the all-around game that Barber brought to the team. Much like a three-point specialist in basketball, Jacobs is good at what he does, in this case, pounding the clock and dragging defenders in goal-line situations, but when he’s getting the ball 25 times a game, things could well be a different story.<br /><br />The more pressing concern, though, is Manning’s struggles. He posted decent stats a year ago but often looked lost and frustrated. No one will mistake Eli for his brother as a quarterback, but more important is their difference in demeanor. Peyton is fiery and will take the blame if he feels he screwed up yet at the same time isn’t afraid to let it be known when one of his teammates failed him. Eli appears timid and uninterested in being a leader on the field. With the pressures of New York and some outspoken teammates still around (Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey to name a few), one has to wonder whether Eli will progress.<br /><br />Combine those elements with Tom Coughlin’s lame-duck status as head coach (the players have lost any respect they might have had for him) along with the fact the Giants play in a strong division) and you have trouble brewing. On paper the Giants might look like an 8-8 or 9-7 team, but with a defense that was 25th overall in the league last year and a lack of stable leadership on the field and on the sidelines, this is a team that could be headed for a swift, ugly decline.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Eli lets his arm do the talking, Jacobs shows he’s a bruising, upright runner a la Eddie George and the offense clicks into a balanced attack<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Coughlin further loses the team, Manning continues to work on his verbal jousting abilities with current or former teammates, the defense gives up as many passing yards as they did last year<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 5-11, last place in the NFC East<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/1/14/HoustonTexans_100.png"><img style="WIDTH: 103px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 95px" height="112" alt="" src="http://www.thebestlinks.com/images/1/14/HoustonTexans_100.png" border="0" /></a>28. Houston Texans<br /></strong><br />Perhaps never has one seemingly insignificant loss in the middle of a season so aided a player’s status as Matt Schaub’s performance on Oct. 9, 2005, against the Patriots. With Michael Vick injured, Schaub threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against the defending Super Bowl champs, and despite losing 31-28 (and being relegated to the bench a week later when Vick returned), the Schaub mythos was created. It took another season-and-a-half before the Falcons finally submitted to letting him go – a move that, oh, they might be regretting given their current situation at the position – but he has given new hope to a franchise that tired of seeing David Carr lying at the bottom of a pile of opponents.<br /><br />But should this still-fledgling franchise be so excited over a quarterback who has made just one start of note in his three-year career? Probably not. And considering hometown boy Vince Young could be under center for the Texans (or at the very least, Schaub could be handing off to Reggie Bush), and you have to wonder how fast fans will turn on Schaub when he is off.<br /><br />Amobi Okoye was a nice pick in the first round, and the Texans might eventually have themselves the makings of a real, live defensive line along with Mario Williams. DeMeco Ryans had a wonderful rookie year at linebacker, and cornerback Dunta Robinson is one of the best players few fans have heard of.<br /><br />It’s still going to take this team time though. They are still two drafts away from being able to mount a serious contender, and that may be optimistic given the fact that they share a division with Indianapolis and perennial playoff contender Jacksonville. The wide receiving corps particularly needs work; after All-Pro Andre Johnson, the other wideouts would struggle to play extras in The Longest Yard. Rookie Jacoby Jones, however, has apparently been lighting up camp, so hope may be on the horizon.<br /><br /><strong>Best case:</strong> Schaub, a rookie in many ways, has many more Patriot-like performances, Okoye and Williams create havoc up front, Johnson leads the league in catches again<br /><strong>Worst case:</strong> Schaub stays upright less often than a Real Madrid midfielder, Ahman Green’s best days are behind him, spotty defense doesn’t make plays<br /><strong>The verdict:</strong> 5-11, last place in the AFC South</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-46138310167461376082007-04-22T15:30:00.000-04:002007-04-22T15:34:36.370-04:00Cavs-Wizards Game 1 running diaryWe’re coming to you LIVE from the chowder-stained couch inside an apartment that desperately needs to be cleaned to bring you a running diary of Cavaliers-Wizards Game 1, live from The Q in Cleveland.<br /><br />12:32: TNT opens its coverage with its second-to-none studio show. Magic says the Wizards have no chance. Barkley truthfully says the Wizards have a coaching edge but that’s it. Kenny predicts a Cavaliers sweep.<br /><br />12:36: The triple-D crew of Matt Devlin and John Thompson are on hand in Cleveland. I think Devlin may have attended Ball State. Heck, he may be <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W45DRy7M1no">this guy</a>.<br /><br />12:37: Z shoots an airball on the opening possession, followed by a Jamison 15-footer to give Washington the lead, 2-0.<br /><br />12:39: Gooden with his fourth point to tie it at 4. We were also just informed that renowned sideline reporter Marty Snider is in the building. Wasn’t she the lead singer from KISS?<br /><br />12:40: A LeBron backdoor cut for a layup followed by a Pavlovic three. Throw in a reverse layup for Bron-Bron and it’s 11-4 Cleveland.<br /><br />12:41: Timeout, Wizards. Eddie Jordan will try to determine whether his mustache can extend any further over his mouth during the break.<br /><br />12:43: Coming back from commercial, TNT opts for a shot of cars driving down a random street in Cleveland. Guess they’re saving the obligatory shot of the Rock ‘N’ Roll Hall of Fame for the next break.<br /><br />12:44: Jarvis Hayes hits a 3-pointer plus a ridiculous foul on LeBron. Clearly, the Messiah still needs to work on his defense.<br /><br />12:46: Jamison drives inside and LeBron takes a Varejao-inspired offensive foul. Cavaliers broadcaster Fred McLeod is certainly happy as he looks to his “unofficial” offensive foul stats to realize that’s the first one LeBron has ever taken.<br /><br />12:47: Larry Hughes hits a deep two as the shot-clock expires. Good sign. 17-10 Cavaliers.<br /><br />12:48: DeShawn Stevenson takes a terrible turn-around jumper and Hughes, of course, fouls him. Good to see Mike Brown reminded the Cavs to never foul the jump shooter before today’s tilt.<br /><br />12:49: Our first shot of an injured Gilbert Arenas in his suit on the sideline. Hibachi!<br /><br />12:50: Ilgauskas clangs another open look off the rim. Good to see the ’05-’06 playoff version of Z decided to show up.<br /><br />12:51: Pavlovic with another lay-in, following his own miss. 19-13 Cavs. Devlin sends it to the third member of our broadcast team, who, to my surprise, is a man. He chimes in with something about Pavlovic being from Serbia. I think.<br /><br />12:52: Long pass to LeBron on the sideline and a no-look touch pass under the hoop to Varejao for a layup. 21-14 Cavs.<br /><br />12:53: Soft rims as Gooden throws in a hook that hit every part of the hoop. 23-16. Another commercial as TNT tries to determine the sex of Marty Snider.<br /><br />A quick Google search of big Marty reveals he’s the NASCAR pit reporter for TNT and NBC. So he obviously knows what’s he’s talking about. At no point in his bio do I see the word “basketball.” “NASCAR” appears four times.<br /><br />12:55: Today’s injury report brought to you by Tyler Perry’s new comedy, House of Payne. Let me clean up the coffee that just came spewing out of my nose. Remember that TNT’s motto is “We Know Drama,” not “We Know Comedy.”<br /><br />12:57: LeBron gets an and-1 thanks to the NBA rule that if you foul a guy and he completes a triple axle, double toe-loop, the basket still counts. Even makes the free throw to boot.<br /><br />12:58: Jamison with a deep jumper. 26-20 Cleveland. Eric Snow is in the game. Hide the women and children.<br /><br />12:59: NASCAR Marty tells us Caron Butler is scheduled to have his cast removed Tuesday morning and would like to play in Game 3. Really? I thought he was out for the entire series, but clearly, the Pit Boss knows best.<br /><br />1:00: Eric Snow unloads his two-handed set shot after Varjeao takes five steps before a pass. It misses. Badly.<br /><br />1:01: Varjeao misses two free throws. Wizards miss at the other end, followed by Snow unleashing a half-court shot at the buzzer. It comes closer than his previous jumper from 15 feet. 27-20 Cavaliers after one. Thompson tells us he wouldn’t feel too bad if he’s the Wizards. Fortunately, for the sanctity of the league, he isn’t the Wizards.<br /><br />1:04: Mike Brown cleans his glasses on the sideline. At least they match his suit.<br /><br />1:05: Snow tries a Jason Kidd-like bounce pass through three people on the move. J Kidd, he’s not.<br /><br />1:06: Thompson criticizes the Cavs’ lack of oomph. Snow narrowly makes a layup. Cleveland-killer Darius Songalia knock down a jumper. 29-22.<br /><br />1:07: Pit Boy tells us Eddie Jordan wants to see three passes before a shot. They just made one pass to Jamison and scored regardless. Challenge to authority?<br /><br />1:08: Hughes continues to build a house for charity with his fourth brick of the night. Then, after reading that last sentence, gets an and-1 following a Wizards’ miss. Even makes the free throw!<br /><br />1:09: Jamison answers with an and-1 of his own. He has nine points. Apparently Mike Brown’s gameplan to contain the rarely used Andray Blatche was misguided. 34-27.<br /><br />1:10: LeBron jacks up his first jumper with a man right in his face. Not a good shot. Jamison knocks one down to cut the lead to five.<br /><br />1:11: Horrible pass to Varejao winds up in Z’s hands for an uncontested layup. Jamison rims out a three to finally cool off.<br /><br />1:12: Ira Newble’s wide open three has the arc of a poorly designed trick billiards shot. Needless to say, it doesn’t go in.<br /><br />1:13: There’s a new T-Mobile spot with Dwyane Wade and Barkley. This is the second time I’ve seen it. Let’s just say it’s not nearly as amusing as the original one.<br /><br />1:14: Our first live shot of Captain NASCAR. May want to pay the electric bill, Marty. Picking out ties in the dark isn’t good for anyone.<br /><br />1:15: Blatche makes an appearance! Mike Brown rejoices. He hoists up a baseline 20-footer that barely draws iron, followed by Thompson denouncing it as a bad shot.<br /><br />1:16: Varejao grabs his seventh rebound and bounces in the first free throw. 37-29 Cleveland. TNT’s graphic tells us his role is “Team Energizer Bunny.” TNT - We Know Drama.<br /><br />1:18: LeBron grazes the rim on a three. Donyell Marshall reminds Mike Brown of the naked pictures of the coach he has in his locker and is immediately inserted in the game.<br /><br />1:20: Back from commercial with, what else, the Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall of Fame! Coming up next, the story of how the Cuyahoga River battled through adversity and made a name for itself even after catching on fire.<br /><br />1:21: Jamison knocks down two free throws to bring the Wizards within six. Jamison has 63 points.<br /><br />1:22: Uninspired pass by Hughes goes off Pavlovic out of bound. Michael Ruffin outhustles three Cavaliers to a loose ball.<br /><br />1:23: Beautiful swing pass by LeBron finds Marshall, who knocks down an open three. Good to see Donyell channeling 2003 early on here.<br /><br />1:24: LeBron misses a horrific fadeaway as the shot clock expires, followed by Devlin screaming “and a shot-clock violation, by the WASHINGTON WIZARDS!” We’ll see if Devlin makes it out of the locker room for the second half.<br /><br />1:25: Stevenson hits a three. Down to four, 40-36.<br /><br />1:26: Cavs let Daniels pass go, collect $200, and make a layup without as much as looking at him. 42-38. Timeout on the floor.<br /><br />A closer look at the box score reveals Jamison is only 6-for-15 from the floor. Not sure what game those nine misses were from, but OK.<br /><br />1:28: Back to the original T-Mobile Wade/Barkley commercial. “I’m sorry, is this your DAD?!?” That one never gets old. The look on Barkley’s face is worth a million words. Speaking of Sir Charles, we’re two-and-a half basketball minutes away from hearing him rip into the Cavs. As usual, he’ll be right.<br /><br />1:30: Noted pick-pocket Pavlovic with a steal, followed by Larry Hughes sending a cross between a chest pass an an ally-oop to no one in particular. Turnover Cavs.<br /><br />1:31: Sideline Marty tells us the Cavs’ bench looks lethargic while the Wizards bench is constantly talking to each other. A shot of both benches reveal seven players on each who look like they’d rather be sleeping.<br /><br />1:32: Hughes nails a prayer at the end of the shot clock, followed by a hideous-looking runner from Jamison. 45-40. Crowd growing restless.<br /><br />1:33: Pavlovic with a god-awful shot that allows the Wizards to get the last shot. Jamison at his season average of 19. LeBron scoreless in the quarter. 45-41.<br /><br />1:34: Thompson tells us that LeBron needs to recognize this is the “dog-gone” playoffs. Bobby Bowden says “dad gummite,” he’s right.<br /><br />1:35: Washington misses, followed by a rushed three from Hughes at the end of the half that hits nothing but the net. The first hint of emotion from the Cavs as they walk off the floor. 48-41 Cavaliers.<br /><br />1:37: A clearly overwhelmed Marty Snider stumbles over himself as he interviews LeBron before kicking it to no one in particular in the studio. Barkley tells him “you’re fired, Marty!” High comedy.<br /><br />1:38: Magic openly questions the Cavs’ strategy. Why not double Jamison, he says. Umm, because Andray Blatche is out there? Duh, Magic.<br /><br />1:39: Take the roof off the TNT studio and Kenny’s suit would be visible from space.<br /><br />1:40: Barkley says he’s “very disappointed” in the Cavs’ first half. He also mentions how New Jersey must be drooling after watching the Cavs’ play right now. Did I miss where the Raptors-Nets series was a single elimination game?<br /><br />The TNT crew really can’t be topped. Magic is the Randy Jackson of the trio in size and in voice. He’ll start off with a mild criticism, followed by Kenny babbling like Paula Abdul until he gets cut off by Barkley, who pulls no punches. He attacks the subject like Simon Cowell, then EJ, acting as a straight Ryan Seacrest, throws it to commercial. Gotta love the playoffs.<br /><br />1:56: Back for the second half. Pit boy tells us Eddie Jordan was concerned about Cleveland’s offensive rebounding while Mike Brown told the Cavs to keep it to X’s and O’s. I have no idea what that means, but since Brown is easily the worst coach in the league from and X’s and O’s standpoint, I don’t think that bodes well.<br /><br />1:57: Thompson becomes the 1,352nd member of the TNT crew today to bemoan the Cavaliers’ lack of a point guard. TNT – We Know Obvious.<br /><br />1:58: Pavlovic called for a carry. Apparently the refs missed the 29 Dwyane Wade carries that weren’t whistled yesterday.<br /><br />1:59: Hughes knocks down another jumper to give him 14 points. 52-43 Cavs. Hayes answers with a hook shot to cut it back to seven.<br /><br />2:00: Thompson critiques the lack of a “fluid flow” to the Cavs’ offense. Uh-huh.<br /><br />2:01: Hayes hits a three, 52-48. A terrible Cavs’ possession leads to a foul on Pavlovic at the other end. Hayes hits two at the line to cut the lead to two.<br /><br />2:02: Paging LeBron James. Please come to the white courtesy phone. James picks up and gets fouled before knocking down two free throws. Jamison hits a jumper at the other end to give him 23. Don’t want to double team that guy. Gooden can guard him by himself.<br /><br />2:03: LeBron makes a runner. LeBron on the ground in pain. Appears to have come down on Etan Thomas’ ankle after the shot and turned it pretty badly. Might as well just end this series now and give the Nets-Raptors winner a free pass to the conference finals.<br /><br />2:06: James still in the game. Bricks the free throw. I still don’t know how Thomas got called for a foul for LeBron landing on his foot, but whatever.<br /><br />2:07: Gooden with a turnaround jumper to give the Cavs a 58-52 lead.<br /><br />2:08: Hayes with a runner. 58-54. No one saw the Cavs sleepwalking through this series. NO ONE.<br /><br />2:10: The Cavs get a steal that leads to, GASP!, a fast-break basket and a foul. Hughes nails the free throw. Good to see him playing well offensively for once. 63-54 Cavs.<br /><br />2:12: Gooden knocks down an 18-footer and the lead is double digits. Starting tonight, this game will be on the shelves at Target next to “soothing sounds of the jungle” as tools to help the sleep-deprived.<br /><br />2:15: Four straight Wizards points out of the timeout. Must be nice to have a coach who talks strategy during timeouts.<br /><br />2:17: Hughes hits another shot followed by a LeBron steal, foul around the free-throw line, and the ensuing continuation that results in a layup. Nails the free throw.<br /><br />2:18: Someone named Roger Mason Jr. comes in the game and immediately hits a three. Hughes bounces back with a front-rim jumper that bounces in. 72-61.<br /><br />2:19: Questionable officiating leads to Songalia at the line. Pavlovic, who wasn’t in the same area code as Songalia, is called for his fourth. 72-63.<br /><br />2:20: Gooden throws a 93 MPH pass to Hughes, who is flashing into the paint two feet away from him. The patch of hair on the back of his head is finally weighing Gooden down.<br /><br />2:21: Marshall reappears after hanging out on a milk carton since the early second quarter. Andray Blatche also enters the game. Mike Brown immediately goes to a triangle-and-two defense. The triangle will cover Blatche.<br /><br />2:22: Jamison misses two free throws. Cavs with a chance to open up some serious distance in the last minute-and-a-half of the quarter.<br /><br />2:23: Hughes called for a carry. Devlin mentions how that call has been a “point of emphasis” over the last few years in the league. A point of emphasis to completely ignore it?<br /><br />2:24: James lets a free throw leave his hand, followed by yelling “aww, you asshole” at the ball as soon as he realizes it’s off line. Nails the second. 74-63.<br /><br />2:25: Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are separated by three seats on the Wizards’ bench. Probably should be five seats and a restraining order. If the Wizards could somehow acquire Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest and Ron Artest’s dogs in the offseason, BET’s next reality show would be in the works.<br /><br />2:26: Marshall sends up yet another contested three, giving the Wizards the last possession of the quarter. Daniels hits a deep two to cut the lead to seven. Varejao throws a 65-footer off the shot clock. End of three with your score: the Globetrotters 74 and the Washington Generals 67.<br /><br />2:30: The fourth starts with Thompson saying the Wizards are in a position Eddie Jordan wants to be in. JT will be starring in “Being Eddie Jordan” next fall on TNT. TNT – We Know Reality TV.<br /><br />2:31: Hughes hits another shot, giving him 23 points. 76-67. I think this guy was supposed to be the second option the Cavs are paying $60 million to.<br /><br />2:33: James gets a steal, throws a pass to Hughes at midcourt that had no chance of getting to him, and Roger Mason Jr. takes the ball to the hoop for a bucket and a foul from Z. Z bricks a jumper at the other end and has been nonexistent to say the least in this one. 76-70.<br /><br />2:34: Varejao gets called for an offensive foul. It’s called a taste of your own medicine, Andy.<br /><br />2:35: The Cavs have a four-on-two that ends with Hughes airballing a 13-foot jumper, Z getting the rebound and getting fouled. THAT’S the guard that Cavs are paying $60 million to. Z’s free throws give the Cavs a 78-70 lead.<br /><br />2:36: Hughes with two free throws to put the Cavs up 10. The Cavs double Jamison (GASP!) and he throws up a horrendous shot off the glass. No one makes quicker adjustments than Mike Brown. Let the record show that throwing two men at the Wizards’ best player took slightly over 39 minutes of game action. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2006-07 NBA Coach of the Year.<br /><br />2:41: The Wizards throw an inbounds pass to halfcourt to a streaking Larry Hughes. Hughes is everywhere. Two at the line give him 27 for the afternoon.<br /><br />2:42: Z with some good D on Etan Thomas, forcing Thomas to throw the ball off his own leg out of bounds.<br /><br />2:43: LeBron streaks into the lane with a kick pass to a (believe it or not) wide-open Eric Snow! Snow clangs the jumper but Z gets the rebound. Songalia picks up his 11th foul, sending Z to the line.<br /><br />2:44: The officials wipe off the basketball as we see our first shot of David Wesley in a suit. The underside of the backboard is safe, at least for today.<br /><br />2:45: Jamison nails a three to cut the lead to 83-73. 28 for ‘Twan.<br /><br />2:46: Ilgauskas with a confidence-inspiring 18-footer. Cavs back up 12. Songalia sends up an air-ball fadeaway three as the clock expires. Matt Devlin tries to remember which team the violation is on.<br /><br />2:47: Hughes gets caught up in the air and turns the ball over, leading to a runout. Daniels takes one step from halfcourt to the basket, but gets to the free throw line regardless. 85-74.<br /><br />2:48: LeBron gets the Eric Snow treatment. Wide open for a three on the right wing that isn’t even close. A Jamison miss leads to a Z post-up in the paint (what an idea!) and he easily hooks one in for a 13-point lead. As usual, since it work once, the Cavs won’t go back to it. A tried and true Mike Brown strategy – if it’s effective once, they might eventually catch on, so NEVER try it twice.<br /><br />2:50: TNT returns from a commercial with a shot of the giant LeBron “We are all witnesses” billboard on the side of a downtown building. Sadly, probably the second most-recognizable landmark in the city. TNT – We Know Billboards.<br /><br />2:51: Hayes hoists up a brutal fadeaway, and the Cavs get the ball back into Z in the post!!! Since he’s six inches taller than the man guarding him, he gets fouled. Songalia picks up his 15th, and the league decides that’s enough. Interesting – getting the ball to your best post scorer against a team that has no inside presence may help you take control of the game. Someone tell Mike Brown to never employ that again.<br /><br />2:53: Eric Snow makes a layup after gathering a pass that nearly bounces off his head. 91-76 Cleveland. Stevenson hits a three to cut it back to 12.<br /><br />2:55: Another sideline report from Pit Road where the mood of the benches is discussed. Now the Cleveland bench is the one that’s full of chatter. Shots of both benches show, once again, no one speaking on either end.<br /><br />2:57: LeBron with a falling-out-of-bounds, 26-foot three attempt. Would have been a good pass to Z had the shot clock not expired.<br /><br />2:58: LeBron straight to the hole for an easy layup. 95-80 Cleveland. Washington looks tired.<br /><br />3:01: The local “Scratch & Dent World” commercial runs for the 6,327th time today, featuring a girl showing off washers and dryers wearing a hideous late-70s era plaid skirt and a giant knee brace. Nothing sells washers and dryers like an unattractive woman in a knee brace.<br /><br />3:02: Z throws one in with one second left on the shot clock to give the Cavs a 97-80 lead. He’s been big since the middle of the third when Brown realized he was still a part of the team.<br /><br />3:03: Does the Chalupa guarantee run through the playoffs? Crowd seems a bit antsy, so perhaps it does. John Thompson feels the Wizards have a lot of positives to take from this game. He’ll let you know what one of those is as soon as he makes it up.<br /><br />3:05: Our first plug for “The Closer,” returning in June, around the time the NBA playoffs will be winding down the second round. TNT – We Know Drama!<br /><br />3:06: Daniel Gibson (finally) gets in the game and launches a jumper off the front of the rim. Eric Snow beams with pride on the bench.<br /><br />3:07: Andray Blatche with a big bucket to cut the lead to 97-82. Gibson dribbles out the clock and the Cleveland crowd is awakened from its slumber and told to go home. No chalupas tonight.<br /><br />3:08: Marty Snider asks Larry Hughes about the blown tire he suffered on the turn on Lap 79. Hughes credits his pit crew for keeping him in the race.<br /><br />3:11: Hoping for some analysis from the TNT studio crew, we’re instead sent to “World’s Worst Drivers 2: Caught on Tape,” joined in progress. I hate to think what we might have missed during those first 11 minutes. TNT – We Know Voyeurism!SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-12536675038072030622007-04-22T15:20:00.000-04:002007-04-22T15:29:40.008-04:00Upsets? UPSETS?!?!It’s NBA playoff time again, and the eight opening matchups look better on paper than the usual first-round fodder. Perhaps it’s the fact that the upset-mad world of March Madness is fresh in everyone’s mind, but it seems all those around the NBA periphery want to discuss is who the “Cinderella” of the playoffs will be. News flash folks: this ain’t college hoops. VCU would’ve gone 0-82 against an NBA schedule.<br /><br />Even if the playoffs were a one-and-done deal like the NCAA Tournament, major upsets would be rare. With the best-of-five in the first round (which existed from 1984 until 2002), they were slightly more common, but with the current best-of-seven sets, they’re damn near impossible to come by.<br /><br />Since the league expanded to that format in the first round, four teams who have had worse regular season records that their opponent have won series in the conference quarterfinals. Three of those teams finished one, one and two games, respectively, behind the opponent they bested in the first round (the ’03 Lakers over the Timberwolves, the ’05 Pacers over the Celtics and the ’05 Wizards over the Bulls). While the Pacers, in that aforementioned matchup with Boston, were actually one game worse during the regular season, two other six seeds won first-round matchups over that period, but they both had better regular season records, and thus, home-court advantage, over the three seeds they faced in round one.<br /><br />As evidenced by this, due to the NBA’s ass-backwards playoff seeding and its refusal to re-seed teams after the first round, true upsets aren’t given much of a chance to happen, and thanks to a best-of-seven that virtually guarantees the better team will win, they almost never exist. The only series that could have been classified as a mild upset in the past four years existed when the 44-38 Boston Celtics topped the 48-34 Indiana Pacers in the first round. Boston then was swept by Detroit in the conference semifinals.<br /><br />Is there any chance of a first-round upset this year? Let’s examine.<br /><strong><br />Eastern Conference<br /></strong><br /><strong><u>1) Detroit vs. 8) Orlando<br /></u></strong><em>Win differential:</em> 13<br /><br />Detroit swept the season series, 4-0. Detroit has been to at least the conference finals for four straight years. If Chauncey Billups isn’t scoring, Rip Hamilton will. If Hamilton isn’t, Rasheed Wallace will. A team’s leading perimeter scorer will have to deal with Tayshaun Prince. Except, in this case, the Magic have no one who would be mistaken with an effective slasher/perimeter scorer, so Prince can likely rest up for Dwyane Wade or Luol Deng in Round Two.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Worse than odds of Pauly Shore returning to Hollywood with a box-office smash. Detroit in four.<br /><br /><u><strong>2) Cleveland vs. 7) Washington</strong></u><br /><em>Win differential:</em> 9<br /><br />The Cavaliers won the season series, 2-1. This one takes on a whole different dynamic due to the likely season-ending injuries to the Wizards’ two best players, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. The two teams met in the first-round last year in a tightly contested series that went six games and featured three one-point finishes. Antawn Jamison can give Cleveland fits, but no one else on the Wizards is capable of scoring consistently. The Cavaliers often lack mental focus (along with a competent coach), so that will likely cost them one game.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> On par with the odds of “Saturday Night Live” being funny again in the near future. Cleveland in five.<br /><br /><u><strong>3) Toronto vs. 6) New Jersey</strong></u><br /><em>Win differential:</em> 6<br /><br />Easily the best chance for an “upset” since the expansion to the best-of-seven in the first round. A veteran New Jersey team that has playoff experience but faced major injuries during the season. An untested Toronto team that came out of nowhere to win a truly terrible division, but did so in convincing fashion. The Raptors are a better team but New Jersey has better individual scorers, despite its lack of a post presence. Chris Bosh has to show he can carry a team in the playoffs because the backcourt edge is decidedly in favor of New Jersey.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Up there with the odds of Drew Barrymore finding herself as the lead in a romantic comedy in the next six months. This one’s a toss up, but Toronto will win in seven.<br /><br /><u><strong>4) Miami vs. 5) Chicago<br /></strong></u><em>Win differential:</em> 5 (in favor of Chicago)<br /><br />So the Bulls won five more games than the Heat, yet they’re placed as the five seed even though they do have home-court advantage. Yep, the NBA cares all right. This, more than anything, tells you how significant seeding is in the NBA playoffs. Chicago’s loss to New Jersey on the last day of the regular season ensured these two teams would face each other, costing the Bulls a matchup with injury-riddled Washington and locking Miami into a series against a team they can’t seem to beat. Chicago relies almost entirely on its outside shooting, while Miami still has the Big Diesel patrolling the paint. The Bulls have Miami’s number, but Miami has Wade, who, even at 75 percent is better than what Chicago has to offer.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Is this series an upset either way? Wade is hurt, the Bulls have home-court and a better record, so it’s not an upset for Chicago. And on the other side, the Heat are the defending champions and played well while Wade was down. Shaq appears primed for a playoff run, so it’s not an upset for Miami. Generally if a team has the two most dominant players in a series, I’m taking that team. Miami in six.<br /><br /><strong>Western Conference<br /></strong><br /><u><strong>1) Dallas vs. 8) Golden State</strong></u><br /><em>Win differential:</em> An alarming 25<br /><br />No match, right? Well, despite the Grand Canyon-like gap between these team’s regular season records, the Warriors swept the season series, 3-0. That said, one of those wins was during the last week of the season with Dallas resting its starters. Golden State has been on fire since the All-Star break, but Dallas has been on a tear since the second week in November. Don Nelson knows Dallas’ personnel, but most marginal major league pitchers know the Yankees’ lineup, too. After last season’s Finals’ collapse against Miami, the regular season was just a training ground for the Mavericks. They will be focused.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Around the same as Mark Cuban looking good with a goatee. Dallas in five.<br /><br /><u><strong>2) Phoenix vs. 7) Los Angeles Lakers<br /></strong></u><em>Win differential:</em> 19<br /><br />Well, the Lakers have given Phoenix fits in recent years and should have knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago when the seeding was the same. That, however, was a better Lakers team and a clearly inferior Suns team minus Amare Stoudemire. Kobe could average 55 and the Lakers could get swept. With that said, if Colonel Jackson can find a way to slow the pace of this series, it could be interesting. If Mike D’Antoni gets into the track meet tempo he’d like to see, it’ll be over quick.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Something close to Keanu Reeves and Best Actor appearing in the same sentence. Phoenix in six.<br /><br /><u><strong>3) San Antonio vs. 6) Denver</strong><br /></u><em>Win differential:</em> 13<br /><br />Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. A pairing that made no sense in December and still doesn’t. But they have won 10 of their last 11 and they two are finally looking like they might be able to co-exist in that Rocky Mountain air. But Denver’s defense has more holes than a Michael Bay plot and our two aforementioned offensive studs lead the charge in showing no interest on that end of the floor. San Antonio runs about as disciplined an offense as you’ll find in the league, and the Spurs are as experienced a group as you’ll find in crunch-time situations.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Same as Joey Crawford and Tim Duncan sharing a milkshake with two straws. San Antonio in five.<br /><br /><strong><u>4) Houston vs. 5) Utah<br /></u></strong><em>Win differential:</em> 1<br /><br />These two were battling it out for home-court advantage until the last few days of the regular season. Houston is truly the darkhorse of these playoffs. They have the one-two punch to give Dallas and Phoenix fits or they could just as easily succumb to Utah in the first round. This won’t be the prettiest series to watch. It will be physical and the pace will be nearly entirely a half-court game rather than the up-and-down tempo you’ll likely find in the other Western Conference matchups. Tracy McGrady has never won a first-round series, but he’s ready to be held accountable this time. He will take over if needed. And Yao has been busy developing a bit of a nasty streak. Don’t want to piss the 7’6” man off. Much like the other 4-5 matchup, I’ll take the team with the two best players 10 times out of 10.<br /><br /><em>Odds of upset:</em> Again, is this much of an upset either way? Utah lacks the playoff experience, but Houston (and McGrady in particular) has some postseason demons to exorcise. The Rockets are better, but not by much. Houston in seven.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Bottom line:</strong> New Jersey has a good shot at Toronto and the 4-5 series could go either way. But the only real upsets will be if either of the top two in the East or any of the top three in the West go down in the first round. Given the nature of the bottom two seeds in the East and the strength of the top three out West, these would truly be monumental upsets, something the NBA playoffs haven’t seen since Clinton was in office.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-88523098719148852682007-03-11T17:07:00.000-04:002007-03-11T17:17:52.966-04:00March to MadnessWell, we’re officially immersed in championship week, which is basically an excuse for conferences to sell sponsorships and give bubble teams epileptic seizures for 10 consecutive days. All in all, the week tells us less about the top-enders, the teams that have a shot to star in the lead-in to “One Shining Moment,” and more about those underachievers who may be getting hot enough at the right time to deliver an early-round upset once the Big Dance begins.<br /><br />Since it’s frivolous to spend time separating the Purdues and Drexels and Kansas States of the world from each other, let’s step behind the line and tackle two big questions: 1) Who’s good enough to reach the Final Four? And 2) Who can actually win the whole thing on Monday night in the ATL as Jim Nantz pretends to be interested in 19-year-old hoopsters while secretly wondering when the next bus leaves for Augusta. I can see it now … “the under-eight timeout – a tradition unlike any other!” Of course, it’ll be a three-man booth for the Final Four this year, with Nantz and the tag team of Billy Packer’s lips and Mike Krzyzewski’s ass. But back to the topic at hand.<br /><br />The NCAA Tournament comes down to one basic issue: what team can win six consecutive games? There are plenty of talented teams out there every year, but few have the cohesion necessary to put together six in a row. So with that, let’s start with the list of teams that are capable of getting out of their region under the right circumstances, and work our way up to the exclusive list of squads that can cut down the nets at the Georgia Dome. The next four teams will likely be seeded between four and six, but have what it takes to get to Atlanta.<br /><br /><strong>Can weasel their way to the Final Four but stabbed too many backs along the way (and possibly pissed off Jeff Probst) to win it all:</strong><br /><br /><strong>Marquette<br /></strong><br /><em>Why they’re ATL-bound:</em> Solid guard play wins you games in March, right? The Golden Eagles (or whatever they’re going by these days) have one of the nation’s best leading men in Dominic James, and Jerel McNeal was the Big East’s defensive player of the year. McNeal is nursing a thumb injury but is expected back by the Big Dance if not sooner. Most importantly, Marquette has one of the nation’s best coaches in Tom Crean, a guy who may not always have the more talented team, but more often than not will come away with a win.<br /><br /><em>Why they’re out like Neil Patrick Harris:</em> Free-throw shooting. Marquette knocks ’em down at a whopping 66%, and you just know that’s gonna come back to get them at some point. James is even worse, than the team average, at around 64%. And while they have a great backcourt, they don’t get a lot out of their big guys. Ousmane Barro is their best big, and he’s not exactly Greg Oden. Oh, and Dwyane Wade left school in 2003.<br /><br /><em>Gettin’ outta town with a W:</em> Texas Tech, @ Duke, @ Pitt, Pitt<br /><em>How’d they choke that one away?:</em> North Dakota State<br /><br /><strong>Maryland</strong><br /><br /><em>Why they’re ATL-bound:</em> They’re one of the hottest teams in the country, with seven wins in a row in the best conference in the country. D.J. Strawberry is finally turning into the stud people thought he could be as a freshman. They hit nearly 40% of their 3-point attempts, and while Strawberry leads them in scoring, they have five guys averaging double figures. And nobody plays 30 minutes a night outside of Strawberry, so they should be fresh. That Gary Williams guy can coach a bit, too – despite winning a National Championship in the last five years, this may be his best coaching job after a 1-4 start in the ACC.<br /><br /><em>Why they’re out like Melissa Ethridge:</em> Turnovers. Maryland’s penchant for an up-tempo game isn’t always beneficial. The Terps give the ball away 16 times a game on average, tops (or bottoms) in the ACC. And while they’re battled-tested against ACC foes, their non-conference schedule left a bit to be desired.<br /><br /><em>Gettin’ outta town with a W:</em> Duke, @ Duke, North Carolina, @ Illinois<br /><em>How’d they choke that one away?:</em> Miami<br /><br /><strong>Oregon<br /></strong><br /><em>Why they’re ATL-bound:</em> The Ducks have that Arizona-in-1997 look about them. Playing the role of Miles Simon, the underappreciated senior who leads the team in scoring, Aaron Brooks. The part of Mike Bibby will be played by 5-foot-6 freshman Tajuan Porter, who inexplicably leads the team in three-pointers and clutch shooting. Malik Hairston will be posing as Jason Terry, highly touted out of high school, struggling to find his way while contributing in his first three years, then (next year) breaking out to be a lottery pick. Beyond those striking similarities, they take care of the basketball and are in the top 10 in the country in free-throw percentage.<br /><br /><em>Why they’re out like T.R. Knight:</em> Also, like those ’Cats from a decade ago, they’re not exactly the most consistent bunch out there. Started out the season 18-1, 6-1 in the Pac-10, then dropped five of six conference games at one point. And more importantly, no one of this junior- and senior-laden group has played in the tournament before, so how they react when they’re facing a hungry 11- or 12-seed in the first round is anyone’s guess. Played a horrendous non-conference slate outside of one big win, that being…<br /><br /><em>Gettin’ outta town with a W:</em> @ Georgetown, UCLA, Wazzou, @ Wazzou<br /><em>How’d they choke that one away?:</em> @ Cal<br /><br /><strong>Notre Dame<br /></strong><br /><em>Why they’re ATL-bound:</em> They shoot the ball well and, believe it or not, shooting the ball well typically is key in March. Four regulars shoot 40% from downtown and two other bench guys that play sparingly can knock one down if called upon. The top five scorers are all good free throw shooters and Russell Carter has developed into a legit go-to presence in his senior season. Won six in a row before falling in a heartbreaker to Georgetown in the Big East semis, though they weren’t exactly playing the Showtime Lakers during the streak.<br /><br /><em>Why they’re out like Ellen DeGeneres:</em> Didn’t play a particularly difficult Big East schedule, avoiding Pittsburgh altogether and getting throttled by Georgetown during their one regular season meeting. Mike Brey has had more talented teams than this group in the past decade and has historically underachieved in the tournament. Not really a marquee win to hang their hat on considering their best non-conference win came against a team that, while formidable now, was playing far from their best when it happened.<br /><br /><em>Gettin’ outta town with a W:</em> @ Maryland, Villanova, @ Syracuse, Marquette<br /><em>How’d they choke that one away?:</em> @ South Florida<br /><br />Now that we’ve got our Final Four sleepers out of the way, let’s look at the bigger picture. There are five, I repeat FIVE teams that have a chance to cut down the nets on April 2. No big surprises here, all these teams will be top 3 seeds when CBS busts out the brackets later today. Let’s briefly break down the big names that aren’t on this list.<br /><br /><strong>UCLA<br /></strong><br />Have lost a couple head-scratchers of late, particularly the game against Cal to open the Pac-10 Tournament. They rely too much on Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison and lack the size to bang inside if those two guards aren’t hitting from outside. Not a very good free-throw shooting team, ghastly if you take away Afflalo, Collison and Josh Shipp. And, here at Give and Go we believe history matters, and no team that has lost its first conference tournament game has gone on to win the national championship. Oregon is a much safer Pac-10 bet to get to the Peach State.<br /><br /><strong>Wisconsin<br /></strong><br />Brian Butch, their best big guy, and one who also has some range, is likely out for the season. Alando Tucker is a great player but hasn’t proven himself as a guy who will take on all comers when it counts. Plus you know coaches will be planning to throw everything short of the water boy at Tucker to deny him the ball. Kammron Taylor is a nice sidekick, but beyond him, who will score for the Badgers. Play a slow-down style reminiscent of the New Jersey Devils’ neutral-zone trap. In other words, if they get the lead, they’re in good shape. If they fall behind, well, spring practice for the gridiron gang starts soon.<br /><br /><strong>Georgetown<br /></strong><br />Have won 14 of 15. Won the Big East regular season and tournament championships. Have the conference player of the year and a 7’2” center who seemingly gets better every time he gets on the floor. What’s not to like, right? Well, they tend to be careless with the ball on offense, as evidenced by their even assist/turnover ratio. But their kryptonite will be evident as soon as they run into a team that likes to, well, run. Georgetown has athletes, but they aren’t the quickest bunch you’ll find. If you run into a team with steady guard play that likes to penetrate, the Hoyas will be exposed faster than Tom Brady’s future in the birth control business.<br /><br /><strong>Memphis<br /></strong><br />Does anyone know what to expect from this team? They’ve essentially been the 15-year-old bully among a group of pre-teens for the past two months. Games against Kentucky, Georgia Tech and Arizona out of Conference USA that would normally look good look like nothing given the down years of those programs. They went to Spokane and beat Gonzaga in late February, but that was right after mushroom-gate was hanging over the Bulldogs’ program. A very young team that may find itself in over its heads once they get punched in the mouth. Then again, if they rallied and went to the Final Four, it wouldn’t be a complete stunner. An enigma that will likely get a two-seed, they have the talent to win some games but aren’t a serious national championship contender.<br /><br />That leaves four teams (and one wildcard) to compete for the national title. In reverse order of their prospects for the next three weeks, they are:<br /><br /><strong>4) Florida<br /></strong><br />Well, they’ve been here before, and that helps. Or does it? Spent the two weeks prior to the SEC Tournament sleep-walking before getting a jolt of life once they got to Atlanta. Good omen? Maybe, but their path through the conference tourney has been a walk in the park. They don’t have a real go-to player on offense, but depending on who’s hitting, that can be Al Horford, Lee Humphrey, Corey Brewer or Taurean Green. They’re one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament from beyond the arc, and even if they’re not hitting, Joakim Noah and Horford are there to clean things up. They defend very well on the perimeter, and their big guys do as good a job showing and getting back into the paint as anyone. Will motivation be a factor? Quite frankly it shouldn’t. This is their chance to be the first repeat winners since Duke did it 14 years ago. They have as good of a chance as anyone on paper, but the difficulty of a repeat can’t be underestimated.<br /><br /><strong>3) North Carolina<br /></strong><br />Possibly the most talented team in the tournament and easily the deepest, often playing 10 guys. That bench will likely grow shorter as the month wears on though, and their fate will be in the hands of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandon Wright. Look for Rayshawn Terry to step up when things get tight toward the end of a game. They have one of the best coaches in the business in Roy Williams and are as quick a team as you’ll find. Are not particularly deep in the frontcourt though, and if Hansbrough gets in foul trouble, they rely on a rail-thin Wright for most of their post play.<br /><br /><strong>Enigma) Texas<br /></strong><br />We put them here because we’re not sure if they belong at No. 5, No. 1, or off the list entirely. On this list because of one man: the growing legend that is Kevin Durant. He’s not only the best player in the country, he’s the best college basketball player since Tim Duncan. He can go inside, but is most comfortable in a mid-range game. Has ridiculous range for a man his size and will pull up for 27-footers knowing there’s nothing his defender can do. That being said, they’re not all Durant. D.J. Augustin is the closest thing the college game has seen to Jameer Nelson since, well, Nelson himself. A.J. Abrams is an assassin from beyond the arc. In fact, they feature four regulars who hit at least 40%. Their troubles could come from the sidelines. Rick Barnes often looks as if he has no clue how to get Durant the basketball in the best position to do damage, and Texas will often go multiple possessions down the stretch without letting Durant touch the ball. Obviously, that’s a problem, because without Durant doing his thing, that limits the effectiveness of Augustin and Abrams from three-point range. But they’ll have the best player on the court every time they play, and often, because of Augustin, they’ll have the two best.<br /><br /><strong>2) Ohio State<br /></strong><br />Speaking of teams being here primarily because of one guy, here’s another: the Buckeyes and Greg Oden. Oden dominates game in a different fashion than Durant – on the defensive end. And, like Texas, they have other guys who can step up. Oden’s high school teammate Mike Conley Jr. has emerged as a great leader at the point guard position as a freshman. Daequan Cook is a remarkable athlete with range, and unlike the Longhorns, Ohio State has a group of upperclassmen who can play in Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler and Ivan Harris. They’re very fundamentally sound and they take care of the basketball. A lot will depend on Oden staying out of foul trouble. Their only three losses came against North Carolina, Wisconsin and Florida, which is either impressive or a cause for alarm depending on your point of view. Can they hang with the super athletic teams?<br /><br /><strong>1) Kansas</strong><br /><br />A team full of stars, the brightest being Julian Wright, though he doesn’t get near the recognition that Oden, Durant, or even Brandon Wright get. Five guys average between 9.5 and 13.5 points per game. They defend, they’re athletic and they have shooters. Wright is a great passer and can expose a zone by getting in the middle and dishing inside or out. As is the case with four of our top five teams, they rely primarily on their freshmen and sophomores to get the job done. If there’s a chink in their armor, it could be free-throw shooting. They can also get moving too fast for their own good at times, which can lead to turnovers. Overall, though, they have to be considered the favorite as we wait for the brackets to be unveiled.<br /><br />More to come as we break down the brackets…SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-24965803759200835552007-02-21T12:15:00.000-05:002007-02-21T12:19:26.555-05:00The title that money can't buy<em>“One bounce, that's all it took. One pingpong ball, and LeBron James stays home. One pingpong ball, and the Cavaliers go from the team with the NBA's worst record and lowest attendance to perhaps the hottest ticket in town. One pingpong ball, and suddenly experienced coaches will want to come to Cleveland, and viable veterans should want to play for the Cavs. One pingpong ball And Cavs fans have hope.”</em><br /><br /> -Akron Beacon Journal, May 23, 2003<br /><br /><br />In some ways, I remember May 22, 2003, like I remember Sept. 11, 2001. Like people remember when the Challenger exploded in 1986. Like people remember when JFK was gunned down in Dallas. It was one of those occasions, at least to one town, one fan base, where you remember who you were with, where you were and how much your face hurt from smiling.<br /><br />It was the day the Cleveland Cavaliers won the NBA Draft lottery, guaranteeing themselves that LeBron James would cruise into the league wearing wine and gold.<br /><br />(My parents’ living room. Home from college. Pacing back and forth. Went outside and screamed loud enough to bother the neighbors six houses down. With my dad sitting in his brown La-Z-Boy).<br /><br />Some kids who grow up sports fans remember the smell of the grass at their first baseball game. I remember a four digit combination of ping-pong balls.<br /><br />This was IT for Cleveland. The Drive, the Fumble, the Shot, the Mesa Meltdown … it was all ancient history. The most hyped amateur athlete ever was ours. And he’d be playing in his own backyard.<br /><br />Game-winning shots. 50-point games. League MVP.<br /><br />Even the big words weren’t laughable anymore. Ch-cha-championship. People weren’t afraid to say it. Heck, I’ll take your title talk and make it plural. We had Houdini in high-tops. Eleven other players, a coach, a front office … none of it mattered on May 22, 2003…<br /><br /><em>“Here's what I know. I had four conversations with connected NBA people over the weekend that centered around the same themes: LeBron isn't playing nearly as hard as he did last season; it looks like his only goal right now is to get his coach fired; he's regressing as a basketball player (especially his passing skills and his shot selection); he made a huge mistake firing his agent and turning his career over to his buddies back home (all of whom are in over their heads); he was a much bigger problem during the Olympics than anyone realized; he doesn't seem to be enjoying himself anymore; he has an overrated sense of his own worth and his own impact in the sports world (as witnessed by the ESPN interview last week when he answered the ‘What are your goals?’ question with two words: ‘Global icon’); he's been protected by magazine fluff pieces and buddy-buddy TV interviews for far too long; he doesn't have the same relentless drive to keep dominating everyone like Wade and Kobe have; and basically, we're much closer to LeBron re-enacting the career arc of Martina Hingis, Eric Lindros and Junior Griffey than anyone realizes. This will evolve into THE dominant NBA story of the next two months. You watch.”</em><br /><br /> -ESPN.com, Feb. 20, 2007<br /><br /><br /><br />And here we are three years and nine months later. Heck, nine months ago we were still knee-deep in the glory of that first paragraph. The Cavaliers had knocked off the Wizards in LeBron’s first playoff series and had battled the seemingly invincible Pistons tooth-and-nail in a seven-game circus ride in Round Two.<br /><br />LeBron signed an extension in the summer. Progress was being made. The foundation was there. The Finals weren’t far off. Size up those ring fingers, boys.<br /><br />We sat down to watch this season, the popcorn buttered and the soda on ice, feet up, ready to witness what was next. Only once we were strapped in, the video was a little bit ahead of the audio, like one of those old movies in Japanese that’s given an English translation. Lips were reciting words that didn’t quite seem to fit. We sat down anticipating The Empire Strikes Back but instead we’re seeing The Phantom Menace.<br /><br />Maybe we all expected this one man to do too much. Placing the weight of an NBA franchise on an 18-year-old kid had never been dreamed of before this. But the thing was, with all the hype, with the expectations, he came out and exceeded all of it that first year. What else could we anticipate other than excellence?<br /><br />Then, a funny thing happened as the arc continued upward in years two and three, leading to this fourth season of extraordinary expectation. Beyond the shoe deals, trading card cash and sports drink dinero, LeBron had a new goal in mind: to be “the richest man in the world.”<br /><br />Michael Jordan was arguably the greatest basketball player to ever walk this Earth. He made more money than the average person could dream of. But the richest man in the world? That’s a title reserved for guys like Bill Gates, Paul Allen and Warren Buffett (who LeBron met with over milkshakes this summer). Not long after that meeting, he clued us in to his “richest man” wishes, and soon after, earning potential surpassed assist-to-turnover ratio on LeBron’s hot list. Jordan didn’t set out to be a global icon, like LeBron claims he wants to be. He worked until he was the best player in the game, one who transcended his sport, and his popularity took off.<br /><br />We’re led to believe Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Eric Snow are to blame for what has been an underwhelming season in Cleveland, and there are certainly elements of truth to that. Hughes is more fragile than a Faberge egg, Ilgauskas is hot and cold, and Snow would struggle to shoot the ball into a whirlpool consistently. But, as the self-proclaimed leader of this team, LeBron has to pick up the slack. He can’t wander around the perimeter dribbling incessantly, then jack up a 25-footer as the shot clock winds down. He can’t disappear in the fourth quarter, something you’d never dream of seeing out of this wunderkind last year.<br /><br />Maybe most of all, he needs to stop construction on that Habitat for Humanity home he’s building with his bricks from the free-throw line. And as any basketball mind worth his salt knows, free throws are mental.<br /><br />As long as LeBron James is employed by the National Basketball Association, he’ll be one of the league’s top 10 players. He’s simply too talented, too special to be anything else. But as far as he’s come since entering the NBA, he hasn’t crossed that bridge from individual superstar to winner, and I’m afraid he never will. The great ones all had megawatt talent – Jordan, Bird, Russell, Kareem, Magic. Most, if not all of them, had less than LeBron. But the reason those guys have their fingers decked out with rings is because they wanted it more than anything. They had that burning desire to cut their opponents’ throat, that fire in their eyes to always take and make that last shot to win a ballgame, or, if necessary, to stop the best guy on the other team from doing the same.<br /><br />That’s one trait that LeBron may never possess. Like height, I don’t know if that champion’s mentality can be taught.<br /><br />One thing’s for sure: it can’t be bought and sold, or traded like a stock. And without it, LeBron will never be the richest man in the world.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1138392783451757672006-01-27T14:17:00.000-05:002006-01-27T16:33:10.840-05:00Steelers MVP? A 'Mad'dening choiceLooking back on the Pittsburgh Steelers' 11-5 season and their remarkable road warrior run once they hit the playoffs, it's hard to pick a most valuable player.<br /><br />Hines Ward and Casey Hampton shared the award voted on by the players, and neither is a foolish choice. Ward is the heart and soul of what the Steelers do. He'll drag defensive backs to the turf when blocking downfield, or he'll go over the middle to make that tough catch when it's needed most. Hampton is the unsung hero in the middle of the defense. His job isn't necessarily to make tackles - it's to provide penetration in the offensive line and free up his teammates to get after the opponent.<br /><br />And it's not like Ward and Hampton were the only viable candidates for the award. Willie Parker came out of nowhere to rush for 1,200 yards. Alan Faneca had another Pro Bowl-caliber year plowing holes for Parker and Jerome Bettis. Troy Polamalu wasn't just an intimidating presence in the secondary - he was the best safety in the NFL.<br /><br />But here's betting if the vote took into account postseason success instead of just the 16-game jaunt through the regular season, there would be no co-MVPs. In fact, the winner would be unanimous. He lines up every day under center, and knows what it's like to have a cult following in the Steel City. He's heard thousands of fans scream his name in a playoff win.<br /><br />He's Tommy Maddox.<br /><br />Sure, Ben Roethlisberger gets the headlines, the commercials, the endorsements and the girls. He's the one who threw for 2400 yards in the 12 games he played, the one who won his first 16 games as a starter in the NFL.<br /><br />But what the ex-insurance salesman did is all that mattered.<br /><br />Maddox started two games this season - the first following an injury to Roethlisberger, the second after Charlie Batch had broken his hand.<br /><br />In the first game, against Jacksonville, Maddox wasn't just bad. He set the forward pass back 15 years. He completed 14 of 28 passes on the day - not great, but not horrible for a guy who hadn't seen action in 13 months. Unfortunately for Tommy Teriffic, three of those passes went to Jacksonville defenders, the final one a wounded duck in overtime that Jags DB Rashean Mathis took 40 yards to the house. That loss dropped the Steelers to 3-2.<br /><br />Big Ben returned the next week and led the Black and Gold to a 27-13 thumping of the eventual-AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals in the Queen City, and the Steelers dispatched of the Ravens the next week during a Monday night affair in Pittsburgh. But No. 7's right knee, injured during a Week 5 victory in San Diego, was hit with a cleat, forcing him to miss the next three games.<br /><br />Because no NFL coach with an interest in keeping his job would have trotted Maddox out there with ANY better option available, Batch took the helm. He struggled somewhat against Green Bay but got the win. He looked phenomonal against Cleveland before breaking said hand shortly before halftime, leaving the Steelers with Touchdown Tommy as their only healthy QB. With a lead that could have been as easily protected by a blind, one-legged giraffe, Tommy threw only seven passes and the Steelers won the game.<br /><br />In Week 11, it was up to Tommy again. He responded by getting sacked six times and missing wide open receivers in a 16-13 loss to the Ravens, a game which, it's safe to say, could have been managed and won by nearly any practice squad QB in the NFL, CFL, NFL Europe or the local Pop Warner league had he had any semblance of accuracy or feet quicker than those of a paralyzed turtle in concrete.<br /><br />We all know the rest of the story. Ben returns the next week, and by the time he truly get his feet under him again, the Steelers hit their stride.<br /><br />They finished the season 11-5, tied with the Bengals for first place in the North, but due to a tiebreaker, the Steelers go from the three seed (if they win the division) to the six seed - otherwise known as playoff doom and gloom, a spot that requires three road wins to get to the Super Bowl. In other words, right where they wanted to be.<br /><br />Had Roethlisberger never been injured, the Steelers would have won at least 13 games. The Baltimore game, and especially the Jacksonville game, would have turned out drastically different.<br /><br />Thirteen wins would have taken the division, and forced the Steelers to play Cincinnati at home in the first round. Had they won, they would have gone to Denver - where they won the AFC championship - but this would have been a round earlier. Assuming they win that game, it's either to New England (the last place Pittsburgh would have wanted to go) or Indianapolis (for a Colts team that would have had a chance to regroup after not having played a meaningful game in a month).<br /><br />If that were the path, who knows if the Steelers even make it out of the wild card round against Cincinnati. Sure, it can be argued, possibly with great merit, that these Steelers are a team of destiny, that they were bound and determined to accomplish unthinkable feats regardless of who they played and where.<br /><br />But one thing's for certain. This is a team that thrives with its back against the wall. They went into Week 14 against Chicago knowing that they couldn't lose again if they wanted their season to continue - and they've won every game since.<br /><br />Tommy Maddox's play during his two starts in 2005 did nothing but hurt his team. But in the end, his inadequacies as a quarterback may have helped set the Steelers up to do what they haven't done since Jimmy Carter was in office and Wayne Gretzky was a wide-eyed 18-year-old rookie in the NHL - win a Super Bowl.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1133250906076312472005-11-29T02:04:00.000-05:002005-11-29T02:55:06.106-05:0011-0 and still rollingWell, it became painfully clear to the rest of the NFL Monday night that the Colts are very much no longer the one-trick pony they used to be. They punched the typically physical Steelers right in Bill Cowher's proverbial jaw on their way to a 26-7 victory that wasn't even that close.<br /><br />The Steelers came in with a simple game plan: control the clock and keep the ball away from Peyton Manning and friends. Unfortunately, as has been far too often the case in Bill Cowher's 15 years of spittle-inducing fury on the sidelines, that plan was exposed early for what is was: vanilla and unrealistic.<br /><br />The Steelers have not been able to run the ball succesfully against good defenses this year. They went for 104 against San Diego, but ran for under 80 against Baltimore, Jacksonville, and a New England defense that in September wasn't quite the M.A.S.H. unit it currently resembles. Yes, they ran all over the Bengals, but Cincinnati's defense has yet to earn the label of elite unit.<br /><br />So what did they try to do Monday night? Run, run, and run some more to play "clockball." They ran the ball on nine of their first 12 first downs and gained two or fewer yards on six of those attempts. The Colts knew the Steelers were going to run. Tony Dungy knew the Steelers were going to run. Heck, even John Madden knew the Steelers were going to run. But their lack of success and Cowher's stubborn nature didn't stop them from throwing the ball early against a defense geared to stop the run.<br /><br />Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the '05 Steelers is their lack of interest in even ATTEMPTING a pass more than 20 yards downfield. Ben Roethlisberger, at one point Monday evening, had completed 13 passes for about 65 yards. Five yards per completion isn't gonna get it done against the 49ers, let alone the Colts.<br /><br />This simply isn't the same squad as the '04 group that easily could have gone to and won the Super Bowl had it not been for the same style of coaching that has let them down time and time again in big games over the last decade and a half. The offensive line has been banged up (in the case of Marvel Smith), less effective than usual and aging (Alan Faneca, Jeff Hartings), inexperienced and probably not very good to begin with (Trai Essex), far more bad than good (Max Starks) and flat-out abysmal (Kendall Simmons). Jerome Bettis is a year older and a few tires wider. The superbly talented Plaxico Burress has been replaced by the marginally talented Cedric Wilson. Antwaan Randle El has been replaced with an even less useful Antwaan Randle El.<br /><br />On the defensive side of the ball, Joey Porter has been on the decline since the middle of '04 at the latest, Larry Foote is putrid and Clark Haggans and James Farrior have been hurt. The secondary has taken a lot of heat when the team has been struggling, but the real culprit has been the defensive front, which generates pressure on the opposing QB about as often as we're treated to Haley's comet in the night sky. The 3-4 defense isn't the optimal defense for getting penetration up front against a passing attack, but combined with the lack of any semblance of effective blitzing, which far too often involves the corners or safeties, it has been rendered obsolete.<br /><br />The greatest problem though is the change that didn't take place in the offseason. Bill Cowher is still wearing the headset on the sidelines and gazing peculiarly at the events unfolding before him like a man walking in on his wife making love to a unicorn. Pick your poison from Monday night's throttling and you can make a case for a man who should no longer be in control of the NFL team that has done the least with its superior talent in the past 10 years. It doesn't matter whether it was the run-first attitude that didn't change following its lack of success, the completely absurd onside kick to start the second half, or the unconscionable 4th-and-5 decision to let Roethliberger run a QB draw ... each epitomized Cowher's coaching style. To put it simply, he's scared to lose, and that was painfully clear Monday night.<br /><br />Particularly in the case of the onside kick, he basically admitted that his offense, which did nothing in the first half that wasn't handed to them, needed the ball, while his defense, which came together quite nicely following the debacle that was the first play from scrimmage, was not to be trusted with the Colts starting at their own 25 or so.<br /><br />In the meantime, the Colts are clearly the class of the NFL and, despite having a coach who has come up as big in critical game over his career as Cowher has, will vault over that hump this year. With Manning essentially running the show and the defensive line ensuring the big plays against will be kept to a minimum, there isn't a team in the league that should be able to run with the Colts. Denver is the closest option, but Jake Plummer in a road playoff game? Not likely.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1132347857044076002005-11-18T15:28:00.000-05:002005-11-18T16:04:17.060-05:00Rivalry weekendAfter nearly a month of the laptop being on hiatus thanks to, in the words of the fine Asian gentleman who fixed it, a "shot hard drive," the blog returns as college football (and in a small way, the NFL) heads into rivalry weekend.<br /><br />When we came to you last, Penn State was reeling from a last-second loss at the Big House in Ann Arbor, a result of a vanilla defense, questionable officiating from a crew chief that, like most Big 11 zebras, hailed from the great state of Michigan, and perhaps most significantly, lobbying from Lloyd Carr for two more seconds on the clock. Since then, the Lions have reeled off three impressive "on-the-surface" wins - less impressive when you consider the fact the opponents were a team playing above its heads in Barry Alvarez's final season, perhaps the single biggest disappointment in D-I college football, and perhaps the worst team from a major conference in the past 15 years not named Temple.<br /><br />Now, the Lions head into East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that is playing the role its most comfortable with: late-season spoiler, trying to salvage its own season after running off to a lightning-quick start and proceeding to collapse in mid-October. No one knows the role better than Michigan State. Add in the fact that the Spartans are 9-1 against Top 10 opponents since 1997 (one of the truly great "are you kidding?" stats to come along in a while), and the upset alert is on.<br /><br />The stakes are simple enough: win and PSU is the Big 11 Champion, on its way to a BCS bowl, and on the couch for the next two weeks hoping USC or Texas, among others, falter so that it may have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Lose and more than likely head to Orlando for a second trip in four years to the Crapital One Bowl. Not good times.<br /><br />One of the most interesting questions to consider at this point is where Penn State would be had Chad Henne not hit Mario Maningham in the end zone on that fortuitous final play. The answer seems pretty clear - third in the BCS, third in all the polls, as they would be the third undefeated team behind SC and Texas. So basically, all it did in the long run was cost Penn State one spot in the BCS rankings.<br /><br />As it currently stands, Penn State needs to win at Michigan State and get help in the following form: SC or Texas must lose, and either Miami or possibly LSU must lose as well.<br /><br />Why LSU you ask, a team that Penn State is one spot ahead of in the BCS? LSU still sits ahead of Penn State in the two polls that count toward the BCS. Should Penn State move up one spot in each it may - and I stress may - be enough to surpass the Hurricanes even should Miami win out. However, the more likely scenario is the PSU needs a loss by the 'Canes in addition to Goliath A or Goliath B faltering.<br /><br />I'd place the odds of Penn State slithering into the Rose Bowl at about 5 percent: Though I believe the Lions would give SC or Texas a hell of a game, those two are looking semi-invincable (or in the case of Texas, in-Vince-ible) and Miami is playing its best ball at the right time.<br /><br />On to some picks for the weekend:<br /><br /><strong>IOWA</strong> (-4.5) over Minnesota:<br />I'll take Minnesota in the dome, but Iowa's pink locker rooms will do the trick in this one. Laurence Maroney is probable, and though the Gophers can run with or without home, look for Iowa, reinvigorated from its win at Wisconsin, to pull it out late.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Iowa 38, Minnesota 30<br /><br /><strong>Northwestern </strong>(-15.5) over ILLINOIS:<br />Team A can score points. Team B can't. Team A can play defense on occasion. Team B can't. Team A has a quarterback who throws it to his own receivers. Team B has a quarterback who throws to Teams C, D, E, F, G, H and I. Team A ain't Illinois.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Northwestern 48, Illinois 20<br /><br /><strong>INDIANA </strong>(+12.5) over Purdue:<br />Indiana, despite trouncing Illinois earlier in the fall, has done everything possible over the last month to make people believe they are just as bad as the Illini. But they're not quite that bad, and thanks to the nature of this game in the state of Indiana (and ONLY in the state of Indiana), they'll hang close for a while.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Purdue 34, Indiana 26<br /><br /><strong>Ohio State </strong>(-3) over MICHIGAN:<br />Winner of this one takes the Big Ten's BCS bid should Penn State falter. Despite it being in Ann Arbor, it's as simple as this: Ohio State is deserving of winning or sharing the conference crown; this Michigan team, despite showing marked improvement in the past month, is not.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Ohio State 27, Michigan 20<br /><br /><strong>MICHIGAN STATE </strong>(+8) over Penn State:<br />History suggest the battle for the Land Grant trophy will be a blowout in favor of the home team. Logic, among other strong variables, suggest it will be a blowout in favor of the road team. Michigan State's season comes down to this game, and East Lansing will be alive for this game, whereas if any other team were waltzing in at this point, the Spartans may have simply rolled over. But Penn State will be ready.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Penn State 31, Michigan State 26<br /><br />And the upset special of the week, leaving Penn State one SC/Texas loss shy of the Rose Bowl:<br /><strong>Georgia Tech</strong> (+18) over MIAMI:<br />Miami has its final two games at home before a likely ACC championship game tilt against Florida State. Unfortunately for the 'Canes, this is a team that can often go out feeling it has something to prove on the road, while playing lackluster ball at home. This college football season has lacked the big, big upset, all season, and an 18-point dog going into the No. 3 team in the nation's house and winning would do the trick.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1129925151204531482005-10-21T15:38:00.000-04:002005-10-21T16:05:51.216-04:00Some mid-October rumblings...College football hits the midpoint of its season this week, and as usual, things have been as wild as ever. Last Saturday featured some of the most fantastic finishes you'll see on any gridiron, including three wild Big Ten games that were decided within the last two minutes and another, Ohio State-Michigan State, that the Buckeyes won despite not running <strong>1 PLAY!</strong> in Michigan State territory until under six minutes remained in the game. Ridiculous.<br /><br />Penn State had a chance to take a chokehold on the conference with a win at Michigan, but playing a Charmin Ultra defense and having to deal with some corrupt officiating for their second Big House visit in a row, the Nittany Lions lost, 27-25 on the last play of the game. Hats off to Michigan for playing a tough game, but if the Big Ten is going to continue to be the pioneers of instant replay they claim to be, then use it.<br /><br />Nonetheless, it's on to Week 5 in conference play. First off, here are the current Big Ten power rankings.<br /><br />1. Penn State<br />2. Ohio State<br />3. Wisconsin<br />4. Michigan State<br />5. Iowa<br />6. Minnesota<br />7. Michigan<br />8. Northwestern<br />9. Indiana<br />10. Purdue<br />11. Illinois<br /><br />Teams 3-8 could realistically be flip-flopped in almost any order and it wouldn't be outlandish. Though Michigan will have a firm grasp on 8th place if they lose to Iowa this weekend. Purdue is an absolute disgrace considering some folks thought they were a preseason top 10 team. Indiana has shown improvement but still isn't more than a bottom-tier team in the league for now. And Illinois has been awful since conference play started.<br /><br />Now, to the matchups.<br /><br /><strong>IOWA</strong> (-2.5) over Michigan:<br />Iowa has a 22-game winning streak at home. Michigan should be sky-high after its last second heroics against Penn State. Michigan will also have to deal with Iowa's visiting pink locker rooms, which seem to have scared off the last 22 teams that have used them for the afternoon. At this point, it's safe to say we know less about Iowa than any other Big Ten team. They got smoked at Ohio State and have handled the three bottom-feeders with ease.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Iowa 30, Michigan 24<br /><br /><strong>INDIANA </strong>(+16) over Ohio State:<br />Indiana has at least shown signs of competitiveness in its first season under Terry Hoeppner. Ohio State looked awful for most of the Michigan State game, and that was preceded by looking absolutely awful in Happy Valley for 60 minutes (save for one drive). Ohio State shouldn't have much to get up for in this one, and may in fact be looking ahead to a toughie at Minnesota next week. If the Buckeyes can't get their offense going in Bloomington, they may never get it going. But 16 points is just too much for a team this offensively challeneged.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Ohio State 27, Indiana 14<br /><br /><strong>Northwestern </strong>(+12.5) over MICHIGAN STATE:<br />How this line is so big is a mystery to me. Northwestern has been one of the league's pleasant surprises, and Michigan State continues to be a mystery. Still, Michigan State's offense is prolific enough that the Spartans could win the league. This game will be extremely high-scoring and it may come down to whichever defense can come up with any sort of stop. A must-win for MSU to remain in the conference title race. Look for about 800 yards passing combined between Brett Basanaez and Drew Stanton.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Michigan State 48, Northwestern 38<br /><br /><strong>Purdue </strong>(+7.5) over WISCONSIN:<br />No logical reason behind this one, other than Purdue is "due" to play well. While they're not the top 10 program some may have thought, they still have too much talent to go 2-5. Or do they? Wisconsin is playing over its heads and is coming off a miraculous last-minute win in Minneapolis last week. Still, it will be awfully tough for the Boilers to win this one in Madison. Purdue owes Wisconsin a little bit of payback for a heartbreaking loss last year in West Lafayette, and will be primed to play.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Wisconsin 33, Purdue 28<br /><br /><strong>ILLINOIS </strong>(+18) over Penn State:<br />Same situation as the OSU-Indiana game. Penn State's offense, particularly now that they're missing Derrick Williams, is not good enough to trust as 18-point favorites on the road. This is Illinois' homecoming and would make their season, plain and simple, if they could pull the upset. Penn State has fallen apart in recent years after heartbreaking losses, most notably in 1999, the last time they were undefeated in October. It will say a lot about the Nittany Lions' mental toughness if they can come into Champaign and pound a hungry Illinois team.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Penn State 31, Illinois 16SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1128495572483082402005-10-05T02:35:00.000-04:002005-10-06T04:45:33.256-04:00Doesn't get much bigger than thisAs a Penn State alumnus who attended school from the fall of 2000 until the spring of 2004, I was in State College for some lean years on the gridiron. Growing up a Nittany Lion fan, I came to expect nothing but the best out of Joe Paterno's teams year in and year out, and while, as a whole, everything following the undefeated 1994 season until the end of the decade was a bit of a letdown, the team would still win nine or 10 games each year.<br /><br />Then, Nov. 6, 1999 happened. The 1999 team was in many ways the inverse of the offensively superior 1994 squad - a dominant defense to go with a more-than-capable, if unspectacular offense. The only problem was that for one windy November afternoon, Penn State let Minnesota hang around just a bit too long, and it bit them after a game-winning field goal as time expired, following a miraculous fourth-down completion via a deflection. Tom Brady and Michigan came to town the following week and won, and the season ended with a blowout loss at Michigan State. They salvaged something with an Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M, but those dreams of a national championship had been blown up two months before that day.<br /><br />2000 began with a 29-5 Kickoff Classic loss to an awful, non-bowlgoing, pre-Pete Carroll USC team, followed by a 24-6 home loss to Toledo ... Penn State's first such trip-up to a MAC team, and really that game that sounded the alarm in Happy Valley.<br /><br />From there, the unthinkable happened - a season without a bowl game to look forward to. It continued in 2001, though Joe Paterno's record-breaking 324th victory, a come-from-behind thriller over Ohio State, brought some solace to a 5-6 campaign.<br /><br />2002 seemingly began a turnaround, as the team went 9-4 and could have easily been at least 12-1 had the Lions had a couple plays (and one very incorrect call) go their way. But that team's core was almost solely comprised of seniors, and in some dark recruiting times, 2003 began with the cupboard mostly bare yet again.<br /><br />The wheels fell off again, as the team went 3-9, thus ending my tenure as a student with a 22-26 record and one disturbingly ugly bowl game defeat.<br /><br />Last year was more of the same, with the team sporting a slightly improved 4-7 record but having an offense so bad, it once was outscored 4-0 by its own defense in a sickening 6-4 setback to Iowa.<br /><br />And then, something happened.<br /><br />On Dec. 22, 2004, Derrick Williams committed to "The University of Penn State." So he was an 18-year-old kid, probably nervous in front of a national audience on ESPNEWS ... no one in State College cared, because "UPS" had landed the No. 1 recruit in the nation.<br /><br />Much like the real UPS, Joe Paterno had delivered once again.<br /><br />Justin King was already on board. Two warm bodies with speed the Nittany Lions had previously only seen in the form of Ronnie Brown and Ted Ginn Jr. streaking past their defense. Two difference makers.<br /><br />Throw in Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood, who had spent 2004 in a redshirt and grayshirt respectively, and Penn State had an infusion of young talent and speed at wideout. Hell, this was a university that hadn't seen a legitimate threat to catch more than a 10-yard pass since Bryant Johnson graduated in 2002.<br /><br />Five wins in 2005 later, and here we are: an undefeated Penn State team playing at home against what, to me at least, a lifelong Ohioan, is an anguishingly despicable Ohio State program coached by Mr. Rogers Jr., Jim Tressel. Only thing is, Mr. Rogers wouldn't have looked the other way if a cat was taking milk from a booster, or worse yet, being skinned in front of his eyes ... but that's neither here nor there.<br /><br />To borrow from the inimitable Bill Simmons, let's break this under-the-lights, prime time spectacular down Dr. Jack-style.<br /><br /><strong>Quarterback: </strong><br /><strong>Troy Smith </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Michael Robinson </strong>(PSU):<br />Robinson is a fifth-year senior who is playing quarterback full-time for the first time. It's been a mixed bag of results: he's 5-0 but he's turned the ball over eight times, including four times in a half against Northwestern. He really came into his own against Minnesota last week when he ran the ball, which is where he's clearly at his best. Smith is a junior who only now knows he's the guy in Jim Tressel's offense, but if he struggles in Happy Valley, don't think it will stay that way for long with Justin Zwick on the bench. Then again, Tressel lost the Buckeyes their game against Texas because he couldn't stick with one or the other. Smith is also an excellent runner, and is a SLIGHTLY more polished passer than Robinson. Robinson throws the deep ball better; Smith has more touch on shorter passes.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Even<br /><br /><strong>Running back:</strong><br /><strong>Antonio Pittman </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Tony Hunt </strong>(PSU):<br />When Big Ten running back discussions take place, every conversation starts and ends with Laurence Maroney, as it should. But last I checked, Mr. Maroney ran for 48 yards last week while Hunt gained over 100. Hunt is a big, powerful back who is light on his feet and can make people miss, and is one of the most underrated players in the conference. Similarly underrated is the 5'11", 195-pound Pittman, who emerged last year when the Buckeyes realized that Maurice Hall was more of a gargoyle than a tailback. Pittman is smaller but is very shifty and has a nose for hitting the hole at precisely the right moment.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Penn State<br /><br /><strong>Wide receiver:</strong><br /><strong>Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, Ted Ginn Jr., Roy Hall, etc. </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Justin King, etc. </strong>(PSU):<br />A year ago, this would have been more of a mismatch than Texas Tech and one of the all girls' high schools the Red Raiders call a non-conference game. Penn State had Mark Rubin, who emerged as a moderate possession receiver, and a bunch of kids whose position had changed more times than George W. Bush had mispronounced the word "nuclear." Now, it's at least up for discussion. While the Buckeyes may have the best receiving corps in the country, Penn State has, potentially, its best group since 1994. Holmes will be the best receiver on the field Saturday, and would still be the best even if Ted Ginn wasn't serving as a "decoy," as some seem to think. Frankly, Holmes is just that good. Butler has been Penn State's best receiver thus far, and is the most viable deep threat. Ginn, Williams and King are all more effective at this point getting the ball on gadget plays and utilizing their superior speed to make defenders miss. Gonzalez has emerged as Smith's No. 2 target and has responded rather well, while Norwood was Robinson's go-to guy for a large portion of the Northwestern game. These two groups have easily the most talent that will be on the field during a Big Ten conference game this season, though OSU has a major edge in experience.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Ohio State<br /><br /><strong>Offensive line:</strong><br /><strong>Doug Datish, Rob Sims, Nick Mangold, T.J. Downing, Kirk Barton </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Levi Brown, Charles Rush, E.Z. Smith, Tyler Reed, John Wilson </strong>(PSU):<br />Neither offensive line is anywhere near as dominant as both programs have come to expect over the years. Mangold may be the best of the bunch, and he paves the way for the Ohio State ground game up the middle. Rob Sims is no slouch either. The right side of the line, with Downing and Barton, is the place to attack. Penn State's line was porous last year and looked average through the season's first four games, particularly at Northwestern when anyone thrown out there was being pushed back into Robinson's face. That said, the group rebounded to absolutely tear through Minnesota, paving the way for 100-yard rushing days from Hunt and Robinson. Brown is a solid player at left tackle, and Smith and Reed are effective in the middle. Rush is up and down and Wilson is not good.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Even<br /><br /><strong>Tight end:</strong><br /><strong>Ryan Hamby </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Isaac Smolko </strong>(PSU):<br />Hamby is a better receiving tight end than Smolko and is utilized more often in the passing game. Smolko is the better blocker and can be counted on if needed to make a big catch here or there. Will often get wide open only to find Robinson looking for anyone but him.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Ohio State<br /><br /><strong>Defensive line:</strong><br /><strong>David Patterson, Marcus Green, Quinn Pitcock and Mike Kudla </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Tamba Hali, Jay Alford, Scott Paxson and Matthew Rice </strong>(PSU):<br />Both solid groups but much like their counterparts on the offensive line, not quite as intimidating as some of what we've seen from these schools over the years. No Courtney Browns or Will Smiths in the group, but lots of toughness throughout. Kudla has 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble and Pitcock led the defensive line in tackles last year ... Patterson and Green are relatively unspectacular. Hali is the best of the bunch for Penn State talent-wise, though Paxson gets the most out of what talent he has, and he is, quite frankly, a behemoth in the middle. Rice is quick and Alford is turning into a quality tackle.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Penn State<br /><br /><strong>Linebackers:</strong><br /><strong>Anthony Schlegel, A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Tim Shaw, Dan Connor and Paul Posluszny </strong>(PSU):<br />Two of the very elite groups in the country. Hawk is an All-American to the tee and Carpenter is nearly as good. Schlegel doesn't get the glory the other two do, but he's no slouch either. Connor should be back in the lineup for good after missing the first three games due to suspension. Posluszny may turn out to be every bit the player Hawk is by his senior season and Shaw has gained a reputation as a big hitter. You couldn't go wrong going into battle with either of these groups, but OSU's threesome is more experienced and better in coverage as a whole.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Ohio State<br /><br /><strong>Secondary:</strong><br /><strong>Ashton Youboty, Tyler Everett, Nate Salley and Donte Whitner </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Alan Zemaitis, Anwar Phillips, Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry </strong>(PSU):<br />Yet another reason why these are two of the better defenses in the nation. Penn State's starters are all seniors, and Zemaitis is the best of the bunch. While he doesn't appear to be a true shutdown corner in some people's eyes, he doesn't have to be, because he is rarely challenged by opposing QBs. Phillips is more athletic but doesn't quite have the football instincts of Zemaitis. Harrell and Lowry are solid center-fielders and Harrell especially isn't afraid to the lay the wood. Youboty has blossomed into a nice player and is a likely future first-round draft pick, but he is not quite as reliable as Zemaitis. Everett is impressive as well but isn't the true corner that Youboty is. Salley is a safety to be feared in the secondary and is the best hitter of the bunch for either team, while Whitner may be the most athletic of the group, a safety who was formerly a cornerback.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Even<br /><br /><strong>Special teams:</strong><br /><strong>KR Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn Jr., PR Ginn; K Josh Huston and P A.J. Trapasso </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>KR Derrick Williams and Justin King, PR Calvin Lowry; K Kevin Kelly and P Jeremy Kapinos </strong>(PSU):<br />Speed, speed and more speed. Four of the fastest players you'll find make for a strong possibility that a game this close could be decided on special teams. Then you throw in Calvin Lowry, who has as much business returning punts as Weird Al Yankovic has being nominated for a Grammy. The only borderline logical explanation for his returning kicks is that Paterno simply wants a safe choice who he can trust to hang onto the ball ... only problem is, Lowry fumbled more in the last two years than a greased-up Tony Banks or Kurt Warner. Ginn is the man to watch ... he has yet to get going this season but is too talented to avoid the endzone much longer. If you're interested in gambling, call up the MGM Grand and see what kind of odds you can get on Calvin Lowry scoring on special teams before the aforementioned fantastic four. Huston is no Mike Nugent but he's awfully good and Kevin Kelly is 8-for-10 for the Nittany Lions as a true freshman, including a 47-yarder last week.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Ohio State<br /><br /><strong>Coaching</strong><br /><strong>Jim Tressel </strong>(OSU) vs. <strong>Joe Paterno </strong>(PSU):<br />Yes, Jim Tressel won a national championship three years ago, and yes, Joe Paterno has had four losing seasons in five autumns in State College. But if there's one thing that can be taken away from watching this team in the new millenium, it's that even though his teams may not have 1/3 of the talent that some of the teams in the mid-80s or mid-90s had, Paterno isn't afraid to try things. First the shotgun, then the option and now the spread offense. Meanwhile, Tressel continues to play things as close to the (sweater) vest as possible for a Division I college coach with national title aspirations. Yes, he accomplished in three seasons what John Cooper couldn't do in 13, but if someone tells you Tressel is full utilizing all his talen, he's drunk or lying. The difference now for Paterno is that while he's still trying innovative things, he now has some true talent to help run things. Certainly Galen Hall, Penn State's offensive coordinator, deserves a large portion of that credit, but it's as if Paterno is living on borrowed time and he knows it. He's recognized that going out with a bang, even if it's not the Rose Bowl peg he'd like to hang it up on, is a hell of a lot better than three yards and a cloud of dust. He understands that college football has changed and he has to change, grudgingly or not, along with it.<br /><br />Tressel is a wonderful college football coach who seems to have his teams as well-prepared as possible most Saturdays for what they're about to face. But the Texas game showed the nation that he doesn't always have it together when it comes to making adjustments within the context of a game. Outside of Ryan Hamby having about 13 chances to bring one simple Troy Smith pass down in the end zone, Tressel's coaching was the primary reason Ohio State didn't walk away winners that night in Columbus. He didn't adjust to Vince Young's success throwing the ball to take away the pass and he didn't settle on one quarterback or get Antonio Pittman as involved as he could have. And Ginn has really been nowhere to be found through four games. Of course, all that could change this week. But, as of yet, it hasn't.<br /><strong>EDGE: </strong>Penn State<br /><br /><strong>Prediction:</strong><br />After 23 years of obsessive fanatacism following sports, I've learned two things: when you think you're right, you're wrong, and when you get too excited about your team, bad things happen. Both reasons typically preclude me from picking games in which I have more than a vested rooting interest.<br /><br />With that said, all things considered, <strong>Ohio State should win the game 20-16.</strong> They will strike once on special teams, once through the air, and Josh Huston will boot two field goals. Penn State will have a chance late in the game, but a late fumble from Michael Robinson will prove too much to overcome.<br /><br />Just remember ... I've been wrong before.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1128024787536651502005-09-29T15:34:00.000-04:002005-09-29T16:13:07.550-04:00Not yet October, but the heat is onLast week's Big Ten picks were a moderate success, going 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread. Illinois didn't quite keep within double digits of Michigan State like I thought, and Penn State failed to win by a full touchdown over Northwestern ... BUT, considering I nailed Wisconsin beating Michigan and Minnesota's 3OT upset over Purdue, I'll take it.<br /><br />On to Week 2 in the conference, where Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines are feeling some major heat, and it's not even October. Michigan is in East Lansing this week to battle Michigan State, and its only gimme win the rest of the way is a home tilt against a still-meek Indiana squad in mid-November. Assuming they lost to the Spartans, next week's homecoming matchup against Minnesota will likely tell all we need to know about both of those programs: the Gophers haven't been able to clear the Michigan hurdle for a long, long time, and should Michigan lose to wind up at 2-4, going bowling will be a pipe dream and the Bassett Hound who roams the sidelines for the maize and blue may be out of a job.<br /><br />Other things we learned last week:<br /><br />1. Iowa was vastly overrated.<br />2. Ohio State's pretty damn good.<br />3. Michael Robinson could single-handedly win a few games and lose a few games for the Nittany Lions this year.<br />4. Wisconsin isn't exciting to watch, but it's a fitting team for Barry Alvarez to have in his final year as the Badgers' head coach.<br />5a. Minnesota likes to run the ball.<br />5b. Minnesota can pass the ball.<br />5c. Minnesota has a serviceable defense.<br />5d. OK, we knew the first of those previous three statements. But it's the next two that matter, anyway.<br />6. Purdue should still rebound just fine.<br />7. Michigan State can score with the best of 'em. I, for one, am witholding judgment until they play Michigan at home and Ohio State on the road in their next two contests.<br />8. Indiana shouldn't be campaigning for top 25 votes until it wins a conference game. Which ain't happening this week in Madison.<br /><br />On to the Week 2 picks:<br /><br />MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) over Michigan<br />Michigan State still has a lot to prove to the rest of the country as far as being a consistently dangerous team, but it doesn't have anything to prove to itself. The Spartans rolled through Kent State, Hawaii and Illinois, and held on at Notre Dame despite blowing a 21-point lead. Drew Stanton has completed 73 percent of his passes thus far, throwing for 13 touchdown and just two interceptions. True freshman running back Javon Ringer and sophomore Jehuu Caulcrick both have 300 yards rushing, something the Spartans have struggled to do consistently since oh, about 1997. Michigan is reeling but you know the Bassett Hound himself will have his Wolverines ready for the big intrastate showdown. Believe it or not, Michigan State still has the pressure in this matchup, though that is by no means saying that the Wolvereines aren't feeling heat. But if the Spartans win here, no one will question their status as a top 10 team. Michigan's secondary is too vulnerable and Ryan Mundy is out for the year. Stanton will light the maize and blue up and the Spartan defense will do enough to give Michigan State its first win since 2001 against Michigan.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Michigan State 37, Michigan 28<br /><br /><strong>Minnesota </strong>(-2.5) over PENN STATE<br />Another game where there is a good amount of pressure on both teams. Minnesota finally beat a quality team last week in Purdue, and Penn State won a conference road game outside of Bloomington. But again, these are two teams that have been unable to get past certain hurdles in recent years. Penn State is 4-0 but has turned the ball over an amazing 13 times in those wins. Justin King, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler give this offense three game-breakers, and Jordan Norwood stepped up last week in Evanston. Meanwhile, Laurence Maroney carried the ball 46 times last week, though Bryan Cupito did manage to throw for 271 yards and 3 TDs as well. This game will come down to two big IFs. IF Penn State can avoid critical turnovers (and the alarming volume with which they've occured) it should win. IF Laurence Maroney doesn't have as much success on the ground against a stout PSU D, and Cupito is forced to win the game, Minnesota should lose. That said, Maroney will find enough running room to keep the Penn State defense on the field until it tires in the fourth quarter, and the Gophers escape.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Minnesota 27, Penn State 24<br /><br /><strong>IOWA </strong>(-18) over Illinois<br />Iowa got smoked in Columbus, but Kirk Ferentz will make sure his team keeps the ill-effects to a minimum. This spread is a bit tricky considering Iowa's offense has been poor, but Iowa's D is capable of shutting down anyone, particularly an average offense like Illinois. Iowa has to rebound quickly with a trip to West Lafayette on the horizon next week, but at the same time, it can't afford to look ahead. Iowa should use this week to get its offensive kinks worked out, and odds are it will do enough to cover an 18-point spread.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Iowa 34, Illinois 14<br /><br /><strong>WISCONSIN </strong>(-18) over Indiana<br />Quite frankly, this spread is nowhere near as tricky as the other 18-point spread. Right now, at least, Wisconsin is a better team than Iowa and despite its record, Indiana is a worse team than Illinois. Remember, Indiana struggled mightily to put away a mighty Nicholls State squad just two weeks earlier. Wisconsin showed how dominant it can be against a JV team like Temple and JV defense like Bowling Green. Indiana would struggle to win three conference games playing in the MAC West, so don't look for any miracles from Terry Hoeppner's boys just yet. Brian Calhoun will have plenty of running room in this one and it really shouldn't be close. The Badgers play at Northwestern next week, so it's not as if there's much to look ahead to. The Hoosiers' only chance to keep it close Wisconsin still being caught up in last week's thrilling win over Michigan. Still, Indiana isn't good enough.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Wisconsin 41, Indiana 16<br /><br /><strong>PURDUE </strong>(-3) over Notre Dame<br />This game should be quite a spectacle, as Purdue tries to win three in a row against the Irish for the first time in over 30 years. It's at night in West Lafayette and the place should be rocking as Charlie Weis brings his boys into town. Purdue will have to suffer through the hangover of a close loss at Minnesota, and should struggle early. But Brandon Kirsch and that offense are too talented to be kept down for too long, and Notre Dame's defense was proven to be a bit of a paper tiger by a talented Michigan State offense a few weeks back. Notre Dame will put up some points thanks mostly to Brady Quinn and Maurice Stovall, but the key for the Irish is getting Darius Walker the ball early and often. Purdue had the No. 1 rushing defense in the country heading into the Metrodome last week, but limped out after being run over by the Laurence Maroiney freight train. Walker won't do nearly as much damage though, and Purdue's home crowd should give it enough of a push to fend off an admirable effort by the Irish.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Purdue 31, Notre Dame 27<br /><br />-- Northwestern and Ohio State have the week off before the Wildcats host Wisconsin next week and Penn State welcomes the Buckeyes to Happy Valley for a 7:45 night tilt to be televised by ESPN.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1127332764404739132005-09-21T15:03:00.000-04:002005-09-21T15:59:24.430-04:00Big how many out of Ten?The joke with the Big Ten conference over the years has always been that it's more like the Big 2 (Ohio State and Michigan) and Little 8 (everyone else). Things started to change when Penn State joined the conference full-time in 1993 and as Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota became actual warm-blooded football programs. Northwestern, for the doormat it is typically considered to be, has won or shared more Big Ten titles since 1995 than everyone but Michigan.<br /> But recently, the Big Ten has become a target for pundits to preach its status as overrated. Michigan has lost a non-conference game in each of the last six years with their loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago included. Penn State has won just one league title since it joined the league. Minnesota and Purdue have been respectable but have earned reputations as peaking in September and subsequently "choking" when the weather gets cold. Illinois and Indiana have been, well, Illinois and Indiana. And Michigan State's Jekyll and Hyde approach (beat a top 10 team, lose to an unranked team the following week) has won it few supporters.<br /> (Of course, when Penn State joined the name "Big Ten" became a bit of a joke in itself, as the conference was now home to 11 schools. But back to the point at hand.)<br /> Come 2005, the Big Ten was supposed to be back. Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State were all top 10 teams and the conference was supposed to have depth not seen in years.<br /> Then came Sept. 10.<br /> Ohio State lost, 25-22 to No. 2 Texas in Columbus. Disappointing but hardly heartbreaking for the conference. Ohio State did nothing to disprove itself as a top 10 team; Texas was just better on that day. But Michigan put up 10 points in a loss at home to Notre Dame. And Iowa was embarrased by rival Iowa State in a 23-3 shellacking.<br /> Conference play hadn't begun and the Big 3 were, for all intents and purposes, out of the national championship race.<br /> But make no mistake about it ... the Big Ten is actually back this season. OSU's loss was to a team no one except USC could really hang with right now. Michigan lost to a Notre Dame team that was ready to rebound under Charlie Weis sooner than anyone expected. Iowa's loss, though startling, was to a major in-state rival, on the road, and their star quarterback Drew Tate was injured early and never came back.<br /> For certain, those three teams will be right there at the end of the season. But the key this time is what's beyond those three. It's Purdue, which misses Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule, but has a solid team and perhaps the easiest path to 8-0 in conference. It's Penn State, which has an offense to go with a phenomenal defense. It's Michigan State, which won for the fifth straight time in South Bend and has put up 40+ points in three games. It's Wisconsin, which made national sleeper Bowling Green look silly. It's Minnesota, which features a stud running back and offensive line to keep it in any game. Throw in Northwestern, which has won seven straight home games for the first time since the mid-90s and Illinois, which is slowly slipping out of its bottom-feeder status under Ron Zook and you finally have a true Big Ten. At least truer than it's been in years.<br /> Unfortunately, Indiana is still lurking around in the conference. But the league only needs 10 teams to live up to its namesake anyway.<br /> Big Ten, Little IU. It's settled.<br /> As for what will actually happen this season...<br /> <strong>Purdue</strong>, as mentioned earlier, has the easiest path to 8-0. In fact, its biggest roadblock may be this week at Minnesota. Iowa is at home and Michigan and Ohio State are nowhere to be found. The Boilers still have to play at Wisconsin and at Penn State, but as usual, nothing in this conference will come easy. Look for Purdue to end up 7-1, with a loss this week at Minnesota as its only blemish.<br /> <strong>Michigan</strong> also has a tough opener in conference play, at Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing over their heads right now, but going to Madison isn't easy for any team. Michigan State and Iowa are additional road games, and Penn State and Ohio State, along with Minnesota, come to the Big House. The Wolverines will likely lose at Iowa and are a good bet to be upset this week in Madison, leaving them 6-2 at the end of the conference year.<br /> <strong>Ohio State </strong>is, talent-wise, the best team in the conference. But a schedule that included a non-conference game against Texas won't get any easier. Iowa visits this week and Penn State, Minnesota and Michigan loom on the road later on. Happy Valley will be more than revved up for a night game against the Buckeyes, and Michigan is due for a win over their hated rivals, especially in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes will finish 6-2 in a tie for second place in the conference.<br /> <strong>Iowa</strong> got off to a rough start to the season by losing to Iowa State, but losing badly out of conference happened to the Hawkeyes last year as well, and they rebounded nicely with 10 wins. At Ohio State and at Purdue are likely to be losses, and look for Northwestern to spring an upset on the Hawkeyes late in the season. 5-3 is the likely finish for the Hawkeyes, which will be good for a tie in fourth place with a team they won't find on their schedule ...<br /> <strong>Penn State</strong>, which is looking for an offense to go with that stud defense, and just may have found one with its speedy freshman wideouts. The Lions' toughest road game is at Michigan, a team Penn State hasn't beaten since 1996. Michigan State will be tough at home at the end of the year as well, and Purdue's visit to State College at the end of October may well wind up as the conference game of the year. Should the Nittany Lions win, there may be as many as five Big Ten teams tied for the conference title at 6-2.<br /> <strong>Minnesota</strong> has a fine offensive line and Lawrence Maroney behind it, but Bryan Cupito is still a question at QB and the defense hasn't been tested as of yet. After possibly taking out Purdue this weekend, the Gophers play at Penn State and at Michigan before returning home for Wisconsin and Ohio State. Iowa is in to close the year, ending a very difficult slate for Minnesota. 4-4 is their likely outcome, a step up over last year's late season collapse.<br /> <strong>Michigan State </strong>is coming off a huge win at Notre Dame, and is actually 9-1 in its last 10 games against top 10 teams. But so often, they follow those games with a stinker against an unranked team a few weeks later. Illinois visits this week and that should be a win, but the schedule heats up after that. Michigan and at Ohio State could well be losses, and at Purdue and Minnesota to start November won't be very forgiving. A big late-season win at home over Penn State could mean the Spartans end up at 4-4, tied with Minnesota and ...<br /> <strong>Wisconsin</strong>, a team that didn't expect to contend but looked solid in three non-conference wins. Purdue, Penn State, Michigan and Minnesota is a tough slate to negotiate and Iowa visits Madison late in the season. Look for the Badgers to drop four of those games, but if they get off a good start this weekend against Michigan, things could be looking up. It's hard to separate those three 4-4 teams, but they're definitely a step up over the bottom three teams, starting with ...SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1126815778046688502005-09-15T15:35:00.000-04:002005-09-17T03:57:00.193-04:00Week 2 picks and other thoughtsTime to break out the Week 2 picks. For the record, though I didn't get them posted for last week, I went 9-7. Not horrible for the first week of the season, but we'll look to improve this time around. Home teams are in caps.<br /><br /><strong>Baltimore</strong> (-4) over TENNESSEE<br />The Ravens aren't as bad as they looked against the Colts, and we don't really know if the Titans are as bad as they looked against the Steelers. Tennessee's defense is porous and the Ravens should be able to win this game by controlling the clock with Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor. Kyle Boller is out, which, as usual, is a blessing in disguise for Baltimore. The Titans need to get Tyrone Calico and Drew Bennett involved downfield in order to have a chance.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Baltimore 23, Tennessee 16<br /><br /><strong>Pittsburgh</strong> (-6) over HOUSTON<br />Though Bill Cowher warned the media his team isn't looking ahead to next week's showdown against the Patriots, that won't be proven until the Steelers take the field Sunday. It is the very definition of a trap game save for one crucial element: the Texans stink. That said, they did beat the Steelers 24-6 in their only meeting three years ago. With Dunta Robinson ailing, look for Ben Roethlisberger to throw more than 11 times this game. Willie Parker will top 100 yards, and the Steelers should force David Carr to turn the ball over at least twice.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Pittsburgh 26, Houston 13<br /><br /><strong>Jacksonville </strong>(+9) over INDIANAPOLIS<br />This game is by far the biggest roadblock to the Colts' chances of starting the season 7-0 before their bye week. Jacksonville took a big step toward playoff contention last year and should get in this year. They don't have enough offensive firepower to dethrone the Colts in the AFC South, but they can hang with them. Look for Peyton Manning to be stifled by the Jags' defense early in the game, similar to last week's effort against the Ravens. The Jaguars need a big game out of Fred Taylor and they can't afford to have Byron Leftwich make mistakes. The Colts should put it away late, but don't be surprised if Jacksonville wins outright.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 21<br /><br /><strong>CHICAGO </strong>(+2) over Detroit<br />There are going to be a lot of close games in the NFC North this season and the Bears' defense is a big reason for that. Since the Bears' offense should continue to set the passing game back 50 years, Brian Urlacher and company will have to keep the team in games. Look for them to confuse Joey Harrington and take Roy Williams and Charles Rogers out of the game, forcing Detroit to try to pound it out on the ground with Kevin Jones. If Kyle Orton can hand the ball off to Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones, and occasionally find Muhsin Muhammed for 10 yards or so, the Bears should grind this one out at Soldier Field.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Chicago 16, Detroit 12<br /><br /><strong>Minnesota</strong> (+3) over CINCINNATI<br />Well, Chad Johnson is at it again. This time, the Bengals' loquacious wideout publicly attacked Vikings cornerback Fred Smoot, saying "Smoot ... Smoot ... let's go." He went on to say that Smoot talked a better game than he played. Johnson's comments shouldn't make much of a difference though, because both teams will score at will. Minnesota's defense is slightly better than a Bengals' unit that is still looking for an identity, and after last week's home loss to a mediocre Tampa Bay team, the Vikings need a win desperately. Daunte Culpepper should rebound from his dreadful Week 1 performance and though Carson Palmer will have a big day as well, look for Minnesota to pull this one out.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Minnesota 34, Cincinnati 30<br /><br /><strong>San Francisco </strong>(+13.5)<strong> </strong>over PHILADELPHIA<br />Maybe the 49ers aren't as bad as everyone thought. Though the Rams outgained San Francisco by 200 yards, the young 49ers still pulled out a victory at home last week. Donovan McNabb is questionable though he has said he'll play. The Eagles should be primed to explode after a drab effort at Atlanta on Monday night, and Terrell Owens always has a little extra motivation when he's playing his much-loved former team. That said, look for the 49ers to get a late score to make the score look respectable and make the oddsmakers pout.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Philadelphia 28, San Francisco 17<br /><br /><strong>TAMPA BAY </strong>(-2.5) over Buffalo<br />One of the true tough games to pick this week. Both teams came off pretty convincing Week 1 victories, with the Bucs' win being over a better team on the road in Minnesota. J.P. Losman looked like he was up to the task of managing the game to let Willis McGahee and his defense win it against Houston last week, but he faces a more formidable defense this time around. If Brian Griese can avoid having an interception returned for six points and if Cadillac Williams can come close to equaling his effort against the Vikings, Tampa Bay should be able to win in the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Tampa Bay 19, Buffalo 14<br /><br /><strong>New England</strong> (-3) over CAROLINA<br />Possibly the game of the week, and what many feel is a Super Bowl preview, should live up to its billing. But the Panthers lost Kris Jenkins for the season last week, and they still have what looks to be a vulnerable secondary. Tom Brady won't have as easy of a time picking Carolina apart as he did against the Raiders' woeful defense, but he should still be able to put up 275+ yards since the Panthers should be keying on Corey Dillon. Dillon is very much a second-half back, taking advantage of fatigued defenses late in games, and look for that trend to continue today after Brady and the wideouts score some early points through the air. Jake Delhomme will need to find someone other than Steve Smith this week, as Belichick and his staff will find a way to contain the Panthers No. 1 receiver.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>New England 24, Carolina 20<br /><br /><strong>Atlanta </strong>(+1) over SEATTLE<br />Seattle's defense is certainly a downgrade from the unit Michael Vick and the Faclons faced last week, and this is a team Vick should be able to run against more often. He looked shaky throwing the ball last week, still trying to find a No. 1 receiver. Michael Jenkins stepped up for a few big plays, and Vick still has his No. 1 target roaming around in Alge Crumpler. Matt Hasselbeck is mistake-prone and Atlanta has a playmaking defense. Shaun Alexander's ability to run the ball will be key for the Seahawks, who will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. But the combination of Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett and Vick getting to the outside will be something the Seahawks will struggle to contain all day.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Atlanta 27, Seattle 17<br /><br /><strong>St. Louis </strong>(+1) over ARIZONA<br />Yet another road underdog is the pick in a game that could really go either way. St. Louis, expected to be back to their explosive pre-2003 style on offense and expected to be improved on defense, looked like it didn't really care when it counted against the 49ers last week. The Cardinals have a chance to be a good football team, but as the offense transitions to Kurt Warner leading the attack, it will take some time to completely adjust. If this game is played in Week 6, the Cards would be the pick, but look for the Rams to put up enough points to hold off a late Arizona charge, as Warner looks for Larry Fitzgerald often. If the Cardinals terrible running game can get going, watch out.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>St. Louis 30, Arizona 23<br /><br /><strong>GREEN BAY </strong>(-6.5) over Cleveland<br />Let's face it, if Brett Favre can't lead his team to a win at home over one of the worst teams in football, No. 4 should hang it up on Monday morning. With or without Javon Walker, the Packers should be too much for the Browns depleted secondary. Gary Baxter may be back at cornerback for the Browns this week, and he is really Cleveland's only chance. Otherwise, Leigh Bodden and an injury-riddled Daylon McCutcheon will be out there together. Trent Dilfer should be able to pile up some yards throwing to Antonio Bryant, Frisman Jackson and possibly Braylon Edwards, but the Browns running game needs to pick a back and get moving. This will not be a defensive struggle by any stretch.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Green Bay 31, Cleveland 21<br /><br /><strong>NY JETS</strong> (-6) over Miami<br />Miami shocked everyone by clobbering Denver in Week 1 and Gus Frerotte looked very good in doing so. The Jets looked miserable in getting clobbered by Kansas City and Chad Pennington looked very bad in doing so. Actually, Pennington wasn't just bad ... he was six fumbles and two interceptions bad. In reality, going by the old cliche, Miami isn't as good as it looked and the Jets aren't as bad as they looked. Pennington will bounce back to a degree this week and Curtis Martin will find some running room. Laveranues Coles has to get his hands on the ball and hold onto it because the Jets don't have much else to throw to. As for Miami's running game ... with that offensive line, Ronnie Brown is going to have trouble running against what is a fairly stout front four of the Jets.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>NY Jets 19, Miami 10<br /><br /><strong>San Diego </strong>(+3) over DENVER<br />We already mentioned how good Denver looked last week and San Diego struggled as well, losing on a late score to the Cowboys. But Drew Brees was without his favorite target, Antonio Gates, who will return from his one game suspension this weekend. Denver is a team on the decline and the Broncos offense is especially a mess. Jake Plummer can explode in any given week, but it's a lack of a consistent running threat that had Denver's O unusually average. Mike Anderson is banged up and Tatum Bell seems to be in Mike Shanahan's doghouse. The Chargers will get LaDainian Tomlinson revved up in the mile-high air and Brees will find Gates early and often. Invesco Field is a good home-field advantage typically, but San Diego is simply a better team.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>San Diego 27, Denver 24<br /><br /><strong>Kansas City</strong> (-1) over Oakland<br />The Chiefs delivered arguably the most impressive performance in the league last weekend, throttling a Jets team that nearly played in the AFC Championship game last year. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson loooked like the most dynamic combo in the same backfield since Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen and the Kansas City defense, moribund for the past three years, shut the Jets out for all intents and purposes. The offense should continue to roll this week, as Oakland's defense really can't stop anyone as proven against New England in Foxboro. But the Raiders will get some points, especially playing at home in the Black Hole. Look for Randy Moss to gain 150+ yards and grab two TDs, but the Chiefs will hold Lamont Jordan under 100 yards and walk out with a win over their dreaded rivals.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Kansas City 33, Oakland 28<br /><br /><strong>New Orleans </strong>(+3) over NY GIANTS<br />This is actually the Saints' first home game, despite the fact it's being played in Giants Stadium. After the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, no one knew what to expect from the Saints physically, mentally and emotionally last week at Carolina. But the Saints played with an immense amount of heart and knocked off a very highly regarded Panthers team. Whether that was just one week of all-out effort or a sign of things to come is what the league will be looking at this week. One things's for sure: the talent is there. Aaron Brooks has all the physical skills to be a star QB and Deuce McAllister is a Pro Bowler. Look for McAllister to have a big game and the Saints D to attack Eli Manning. Tiki Barber will have to do it all if the Giants are to win this one. The Giants' 42 points were a bit deceiving last week as 14 came on special teams. They are due for a bit of a letdown and the Saints should be sky high with the game being on Monday night as part of the league's Katrina relief effort.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>New Orleans 24, NY Giants 17<br /><br /><strong>DALLAS </strong>(-6) over Washington<br />The Redskins had the good fortune of playing the Bears last week and should be well aware that they likely would have lost to anyone other than Kyle Orton and Co. The Cowboys were very impressive on the road in San Diego and Drew Bledsoe looked revived playing for Bill Parcells. The Cowboys are getting some playmakers that they've lacked for the past few years, as Julius Jones is ready to explode and Patrick Crayton has shown some promise as a speedy wideout. Throw in Jason Witten, who wasn't used much last week, and the Cowboys are a fairly dangerous offense. Mark Brunell gets the start for the Redskins, who have Clinton Portis and not much else to speak of on offense. Dallas' defense will give Portis some trouble, which means Washington will be in big trouble. Brunell isn't exactly the most mobile guy behind center anymore.<br /><strong>Pick: </strong>Dallas 21, Washington 9SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1126598412914746832005-09-13T02:50:00.000-04:002005-09-13T04:00:12.956-04:00And it has begun...Well, Week One of the NFL season is officially in the books with tonight's 14-10 victory by the Falcons over the Eagles on Monday Night Football. And thus, America's fascination with the gridiron game is back for another fall of 60-minute battles from Minneapolis to Mexico City (yes, the fine folks south of the border get Cards-49ers in October...how lucky they are). Some thoughts after a small sampling of the action from around the league...<br /><br /><ul><li>The Bears offense is going to be painful to watch for quite a while. They are a team that will find their way eventually because Lovie Smith is a quality NFL coach, but Cedric Benson needs some time to get his footing in the league and Kyle Orton got benched briefly for a Big Ten team about 10 months ago. Fortunately for Chicago, they compete in the NFC, which right now is no better than the NBA's Eastern Conference circa 2002 or the woebegone NL West circa right now. </li><li>The Redskins offense isn't much better. </li><li>The Bengals keep getting better every year, but it's yet to reflect in the standings at the end of the year. They've been 8-8 for the past two years and the next logical leap is the playoffs, where in the NFC they'd be no worse than the conference's third or fourth best team. But, they pass and catch in the AFC, where right now New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Jacksonville, San Diego, Buffalo and Baltimore are all arguably as good or better. They may go 9-7 or 10-6, but it might now be enough. </li><li>The Browns will win no more than 5 games, with 4 being the more likely number. If they go 7-9, Romeo Crennel should not only be the NFL's Coach of the Year - he should be sainted and given a Purple Heart for working with a team who started Leigh Bodden at cornerback in the first week of action.</li><li>Tom Brady is a much better passer than many people think. Anyone who doesn't think he's a good Fantasy Football player has a few screws loose - the guy can throw for 300 yards any time he wants and he has no fewer than seven solid options to throw the ball to. New England wins the AFC East in a landslide.</li><li>Kerry Collins and Randy Moss might hook up for about 12 or 15 TD passes of 30+ yards this year, but Collins' passer rating might top at right around the price we're paying for a barrel of oil right now.</li><li>If Gus Frerotte throws for 275 yards every week, the Dolphins might go 12-4. But if A.J. Feeley threw for 275 yards every week, the discontinuation of taxes and women's menstrual cycles might not be out of the question.</li><li>This just in, nine years into his NFL career, Jake Plummer still doesn't get it. </li><li>Hi, I'm Brian Billick and if anyone could recover the naked pictures Kyle Boller has of me, please return them to my office at M&T Stadium before I'm unemployed.</li><li>The Colts will go no worse than 13-3 with the offense they've had for a while and the somehow obscenely easy schedule they're playing despite winning the AFC South last year. But it's their speedy, resilient defense that will give them a shot come January.</li><li>Houston, we have a ... nah, too easy.</li><li>J.P. Losman, get back to me when you score some points against a better team than the Texans. The next "soft" defense you get is in Week 7 at Oakland.</li><li>Well done New Orleans, well done. No one should be questioning the heart of Jim Haslett or the Saints after that performance. It would be great to see them keep it up for the next four months, but it they can't, no one would blame them.</li><li>Jinx No. 1: Carolina should be just fine. But then you hear Kris Jenkins is out for the year after about a half of one game. What if Jake Delhomme misses any time? Chris Weinke's AARP meetings might cut into his studying the playbook. That and he's not even a viable CFL quarterback. If it turns into last year and they spend more time in the infirmary than the end zone, the SI cover jinx will be the least of their problems.</li><li>Jinx No. 2: Until Ben Roethlisberger loses Hines Ward, Alan Faneca, Marvel Smith, Jeff Hartings, Willie Parker, Heath Miller, Antwaan Randle El, Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis all in the same week, the sophomore jinx won't happen.</li><li>Steve McNair deserves better than the team he's going to be playing with for the next 15 Sundays.</li><li>Jeff Fisher, the mullet is still out.</li><li>All those who thought the Minnesota Vikings would be vastly improved, raise your hands. Keep those hands up if you considered that Mike Tice is still their head coach. Where'd the hands go?</li><li>Tampa Bay will be the mercurial team of the 2005 season. They'll win when they should lose, lose when they should win, and they'll do it all with a Cadillac stretching defenses thin and a man who once hurt himself tripping over his dog in his own driveway throwing passes. Thank God for Brian Griese.</li><li>Kansas City won't allow fewer than 10 points the rest of the season. Hold off on printing the Super Bowl XL tickets until they face a varsity offense.</li><li>I'm sorry Mr. Vermeil, I didn't mean to offend you. Tissue?</li><li>Jacksonville is a lot better than people realize. Playoff-caliber good this year and maybe more once Leftwich really gets going.</li><li>Is Mike Holmgren still coaching the Seahawks? He's done less with more over a longer period of time than George W. Bush. </li><li>Chad Pennington and Herm Edwards need some marriage counseling. </li><li>The Kurt Warner of 1999 probably isn't going to emerge in the desert this fall. And even if he does, the Cards might want to try stopping someone.</li><li>The Giants aren't very good. </li><li>Green Bay might be worse. Javon Walker out for the year. Brett Favre looking older and less patient with the football. Mike Sherman still on the sidelines. If they don't beat Cleveland this week, No. 4 might want to call it quits.</li><li>Dallas will hang around the playoff race until Week 16 in Carolina when Drew Bledsoe gets sacked an NFL record 343 times in one game.</li><li>Maybe the Chargers should have let that Antonio Gates suspension go when the real games began. </li><li>The march of the Mike's continues with Mike Martz having his team finely tuned for their game at San Francisco. Try to avoid throwing the ball 60 times next week at Arizona, Mike. One man who was ready to take advantage of Martz's diminishing skills as a coach was ...</li><li>Mike Nolan, who needs to send a greeting card to Marc Bulger for throwing the game away in the final minutes, and a fruit cake to the NFL offices for allowing his virgin head coaching experience to include coaching against a man who probably believes he could run a four-minute mile while eating more hot dogs than Takeru Kobayashi.</li><li>Joey Harrington, your team should probably be scoring more than 17 points against Green Bay's defense. </li><li>The Eagles may be headed directly toward a self-destructive situation with Terrell Owens' silly feud with Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook's lack of a new contract. But it's still tough to pick anyone else to emerge from the NFC except maybe ...</li><li>The Atlanta Falcons. If Michael Vick can play the role of Trent Dilfer (OK, bad comparison) and simply not make mistakes (asking a lot, I know), then Atlanta could easily win the NFC. And there's something inherently likable about Jim Mora Jr. Playoffs?!? For this Mora, definitely.</li></ul><p>Back later this week for more NFL and college football thoughts, some predictions for next week, and whatever else comes to mind. New England at Carolina looks like the prime game of the week, with Jacksonville at Indianapolis not far behind. If you know what's good for yourself, avoid Detroit at Chicago at all costs. The revolutionary concept of the forward pass may become obsolete at Soldier Field on Sunday.</p>SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1119854267096984922005-06-27T02:03:00.000-04:002005-06-27T02:52:45.606-04:00Some thoughts before the stormAs I mentioned in the introduction, a lot of the material posted here will be related to the NBA. And there honestly may not be a more intriguing time of year to write about the NBA than right now.<br /><br />As a fan of the Cavaliers, the team is about to embark on what is far and away the most important offseason in the history of the franchise. With somewhere around $25 million in salaries to throw around (and I used that term because it's what I'm afraid they may do), this is the team's best (and perhaps only) opportunity to build a contending team around LeBron James before he can decide whether he wants to remain a Cavalier or take the first plane out of Hopkins after his four-year sentence in basketball Siberia is up.<br /><br />The Cavaliers are going to announce Danny Ferry as their new General Manager, and presumably President of Basketball Operations, sometime later today. It's been a position of great speculation since Jim Paxson was finally let go two months ago, and now there's finally an answer as to who is running this ship that's been lost at sea for so long.<br /><br />Possibly the most interesting news to come out of the hiring of Ferry is that, according to Brian Windhorst's article in today's Akron Beacon Journal, Larry Brown is out of the mix for a position in the Cavaliers' front office.<br /><br />And the fans of Cleveland should be thanking their lucky stars.<br /><br />Larry Brown in Cleveland might have worked out great ... if and only if his responsibility was to coach. Once it became known that he would only be a part of the organization in some capacity in the front office, with what was allegedly going to be great say over personnel decisions, I'd been waiting and waiting for this thing to fall through. Thankfully, it sound like it has.<br /><br />Brown is a fine coach with one of the better basketball minds the sport has seen since James Naismith attached that peach basket to a post 114 years ago. But he's a basketball vagabond, not only in the nature of his moves, holding 11 different posts in 33 years in the league, but also in his mindset while he jumps off the circus ride for long enough to stop and make his mark on a city and a franchise. He falls in and out of love with players just as he does with whatever franchise he's working for, though these particular grudges/infatuations can be spawned overnight.<br /><br />He can manage players on the court with a pedigree of few who have come before him but when left in charge of salaries, contracts and bringing in players, he's consistently come up short, particularly recently when he had control of personnel decisions in Philadelphia. We're talking about a guy who was hell-bent on trading Allen Iverson for Jerry Stackhouse. The Sixers are still trying to climb out from under some of the unenviable positions he put them in financially.<br /><br />But enough about Larry Brown. He'll enter the Mayo Clinic Wednesday to have his health checked yet again, and according to the nomad himself, by Friday he hopes to have a decision made as to where his basketball future lies.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have brought Danny Ferry back in the fold, this time (fortunately) as an executive in the front office rather than a player. If I hear one more person question the move due to his rather dubious playing career as a Cavalier, I may lose faith in mankind altogether. Ferry's failure to be the next Larry Bird, or whatever it was that people saw in his game at Duke, has NOTHING to do with his ability to evaluate talent or run a team. But unlike his playing days, he won't have a year to spend in Europe honing his craft.<br /><br />The draft is tomorrow and teams can start negotiating with free agents on Friday. Talk about jumping right in. Fortunately, Ferry has been well-groomed, coming from a Spurs organization that is extremely well-run by R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich.<br /><br />We don't know what Ferry will bring to the table in Cleveland. I don't know what input, if any, he has in signing Ginobili to an extension, bringing Brent Barry aboard via free agency, or pilfering Nazr Mohammed from Ray Charles (err....Isiah Thomas) in February. But I do know he's as right for the job as anyone at this point, and considering he learned how to be an NBA executive from people who actually have been successful (unlike his predecessor Paxson), the Cavaliers are off to a good start.<br /><br />As for the draft tomorrow, I wouldn't be letting Ferry steer the ship completely (assuming, of course, the Cavaliers actually can acquire a pick and be part of the festivities). I'd leave that to Mark Warkentein, who had been the team's interim GM. It's up to Warkentein to get into the middle of the first round and get this team the young point guard it so desperately needs.<br /><br />I realize this is probably more of a fantasy than reality, and I'm certain Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Raymond Felton will be long gone before the Cavaliers can even think about having enough ammo to acquire a pick. But Jarrett Jack will be readily available. And anyone who knows my thoughts about basketball knows how big of a fan I am of the former Georgia Tech guard's game. Amazingly, he's not mentioned anywhere near as much as the three previously mentioned points. But he should be. And just enough teams don't seem to realize this that if the Cavaliers can get a pick in the 15-20 range, Jack will be there and the Cavaliers will have had to give up far less than they would to acquire Paul, Williams or Felton. Most importantly, they will have drafted a player who is a proven winner, excellent passer, solid scorer, and stout defender who can be averaging 11 assists per night in a year or two next to Mr. James. If the guy could make Luke Schenscher into a decent player, imagine what a potentially re-signed Zydrunas Ilgauskas could do on his team.<br /><br />But enough dreaming. Until further notice, the Cavaliers are on the sidelines for the draft, something we haven't been able to say about this franchise for a very, very long time.<br /><br />That's all for now. Until next time...SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13828574.post-1119319707532137352005-06-20T21:57:00.000-04:002005-06-20T22:08:27.543-04:00A little introductionWelcome to <strong>Give and Go</strong>, a blog that over time you'll find is mostly sports-related. The title of this site is, of course, a basketball term, and I thought it was fitting because a good portion of the content I discuss will deal with the NBA and college basketball.<br /><br />Of course, the NBA isn't my only passion. Football, baseball, international soccer are also of high interest to me, and maybe at some point over the course of the next 10 years (or even this summer), the NHL will get its act together and be back on the ice come October. And despite the irreparable damage that <strong>Gary Bettman</strong>, <strong>Bob Goodenow</strong> and company have done to their sport, it will still be back and a good portion of its already niche fan base will return as well.<br /><br />Sports won't be the only topic of discussion here at <strong>Give and Go</strong>. Movies will be another big subject, and I'll give you thoughts on current releases at the box office or good stuff to check out on DVD from time to time. Though I don't watch a lot of non-sports related TV, there are a few shows that I don't miss (such as Fox's masterful "24") and I'll get plenty of talk in about those as well.<br /><br />That should give you a good overview of what <strong>Give and Go</strong> is all about. I'll give you a topic and go with it from there. If you're interested in what I have to say, feel free to keep reading and keep coming back. If you're not, as you might be aware, there are a few of these other "blogs" on the Web to check out.SouthPawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18337724743069325461noreply@blogger.com0