Well, we’re officially immersed in championship week, which is basically an excuse for conferences to sell sponsorships and give bubble teams epileptic seizures for 10 consecutive days. All in all, the week tells us less about the top-enders, the teams that have a shot to star in the lead-in to “One Shining Moment,” and more about those underachievers who may be getting hot enough at the right time to deliver an early-round upset once the Big Dance begins.
Since it’s frivolous to spend time separating the Purdues and Drexels and Kansas States of the world from each other, let’s step behind the line and tackle two big questions: 1) Who’s good enough to reach the Final Four? And 2) Who can actually win the whole thing on Monday night in the ATL as Jim Nantz pretends to be interested in 19-year-old hoopsters while secretly wondering when the next bus leaves for Augusta. I can see it now … “the under-eight timeout – a tradition unlike any other!” Of course, it’ll be a three-man booth for the Final Four this year, with Nantz and the tag team of Billy Packer’s lips and Mike Krzyzewski’s ass. But back to the topic at hand.
The NCAA Tournament comes down to one basic issue: what team can win six consecutive games? There are plenty of talented teams out there every year, but few have the cohesion necessary to put together six in a row. So with that, let’s start with the list of teams that are capable of getting out of their region under the right circumstances, and work our way up to the exclusive list of squads that can cut down the nets at the Georgia Dome. The next four teams will likely be seeded between four and six, but have what it takes to get to Atlanta.
Can weasel their way to the Final Four but stabbed too many backs along the way (and possibly pissed off Jeff Probst) to win it all:
Marquette
Why they’re ATL-bound: Solid guard play wins you games in March, right? The Golden Eagles (or whatever they’re going by these days) have one of the nation’s best leading men in Dominic James, and Jerel McNeal was the Big East’s defensive player of the year. McNeal is nursing a thumb injury but is expected back by the Big Dance if not sooner. Most importantly, Marquette has one of the nation’s best coaches in Tom Crean, a guy who may not always have the more talented team, but more often than not will come away with a win.
Why they’re out like Neil Patrick Harris: Free-throw shooting. Marquette knocks ’em down at a whopping 66%, and you just know that’s gonna come back to get them at some point. James is even worse, than the team average, at around 64%. And while they have a great backcourt, they don’t get a lot out of their big guys. Ousmane Barro is their best big, and he’s not exactly Greg Oden. Oh, and Dwyane Wade left school in 2003.
Gettin’ outta town with a W: Texas Tech, @ Duke, @ Pitt, Pitt
How’d they choke that one away?: North Dakota State
Maryland
Why they’re ATL-bound: They’re one of the hottest teams in the country, with seven wins in a row in the best conference in the country. D.J. Strawberry is finally turning into the stud people thought he could be as a freshman. They hit nearly 40% of their 3-point attempts, and while Strawberry leads them in scoring, they have five guys averaging double figures. And nobody plays 30 minutes a night outside of Strawberry, so they should be fresh. That Gary Williams guy can coach a bit, too – despite winning a National Championship in the last five years, this may be his best coaching job after a 1-4 start in the ACC.
Why they’re out like Melissa Ethridge: Turnovers. Maryland’s penchant for an up-tempo game isn’t always beneficial. The Terps give the ball away 16 times a game on average, tops (or bottoms) in the ACC. And while they’re battled-tested against ACC foes, their non-conference schedule left a bit to be desired.
Gettin’ outta town with a W: Duke, @ Duke, North Carolina, @ Illinois
How’d they choke that one away?: Miami
Oregon
Why they’re ATL-bound: The Ducks have that Arizona-in-1997 look about them. Playing the role of Miles Simon, the underappreciated senior who leads the team in scoring, Aaron Brooks. The part of Mike Bibby will be played by 5-foot-6 freshman Tajuan Porter, who inexplicably leads the team in three-pointers and clutch shooting. Malik Hairston will be posing as Jason Terry, highly touted out of high school, struggling to find his way while contributing in his first three years, then (next year) breaking out to be a lottery pick. Beyond those striking similarities, they take care of the basketball and are in the top 10 in the country in free-throw percentage.
Why they’re out like T.R. Knight: Also, like those ’Cats from a decade ago, they’re not exactly the most consistent bunch out there. Started out the season 18-1, 6-1 in the Pac-10, then dropped five of six conference games at one point. And more importantly, no one of this junior- and senior-laden group has played in the tournament before, so how they react when they’re facing a hungry 11- or 12-seed in the first round is anyone’s guess. Played a horrendous non-conference slate outside of one big win, that being…
Gettin’ outta town with a W: @ Georgetown, UCLA, Wazzou, @ Wazzou
How’d they choke that one away?: @ Cal
Notre Dame
Why they’re ATL-bound: They shoot the ball well and, believe it or not, shooting the ball well typically is key in March. Four regulars shoot 40% from downtown and two other bench guys that play sparingly can knock one down if called upon. The top five scorers are all good free throw shooters and Russell Carter has developed into a legit go-to presence in his senior season. Won six in a row before falling in a heartbreaker to Georgetown in the Big East semis, though they weren’t exactly playing the Showtime Lakers during the streak.
Why they’re out like Ellen DeGeneres: Didn’t play a particularly difficult Big East schedule, avoiding Pittsburgh altogether and getting throttled by Georgetown during their one regular season meeting. Mike Brey has had more talented teams than this group in the past decade and has historically underachieved in the tournament. Not really a marquee win to hang their hat on considering their best non-conference win came against a team that, while formidable now, was playing far from their best when it happened.
Gettin’ outta town with a W: @ Maryland, Villanova, @ Syracuse, Marquette
How’d they choke that one away?: @ South Florida
Now that we’ve got our Final Four sleepers out of the way, let’s look at the bigger picture. There are five, I repeat FIVE teams that have a chance to cut down the nets on April 2. No big surprises here, all these teams will be top 3 seeds when CBS busts out the brackets later today. Let’s briefly break down the big names that aren’t on this list.
UCLA
Have lost a couple head-scratchers of late, particularly the game against Cal to open the Pac-10 Tournament. They rely too much on Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison and lack the size to bang inside if those two guards aren’t hitting from outside. Not a very good free-throw shooting team, ghastly if you take away Afflalo, Collison and Josh Shipp. And, here at Give and Go we believe history matters, and no team that has lost its first conference tournament game has gone on to win the national championship. Oregon is a much safer Pac-10 bet to get to the Peach State.
Wisconsin
Brian Butch, their best big guy, and one who also has some range, is likely out for the season. Alando Tucker is a great player but hasn’t proven himself as a guy who will take on all comers when it counts. Plus you know coaches will be planning to throw everything short of the water boy at Tucker to deny him the ball. Kammron Taylor is a nice sidekick, but beyond him, who will score for the Badgers. Play a slow-down style reminiscent of the New Jersey Devils’ neutral-zone trap. In other words, if they get the lead, they’re in good shape. If they fall behind, well, spring practice for the gridiron gang starts soon.
Georgetown
Have won 14 of 15. Won the Big East regular season and tournament championships. Have the conference player of the year and a 7’2” center who seemingly gets better every time he gets on the floor. What’s not to like, right? Well, they tend to be careless with the ball on offense, as evidenced by their even assist/turnover ratio. But their kryptonite will be evident as soon as they run into a team that likes to, well, run. Georgetown has athletes, but they aren’t the quickest bunch you’ll find. If you run into a team with steady guard play that likes to penetrate, the Hoyas will be exposed faster than Tom Brady’s future in the birth control business.
Memphis
Does anyone know what to expect from this team? They’ve essentially been the 15-year-old bully among a group of pre-teens for the past two months. Games against Kentucky, Georgia Tech and Arizona out of Conference USA that would normally look good look like nothing given the down years of those programs. They went to Spokane and beat Gonzaga in late February, but that was right after mushroom-gate was hanging over the Bulldogs’ program. A very young team that may find itself in over its heads once they get punched in the mouth. Then again, if they rallied and went to the Final Four, it wouldn’t be a complete stunner. An enigma that will likely get a two-seed, they have the talent to win some games but aren’t a serious national championship contender.
That leaves four teams (and one wildcard) to compete for the national title. In reverse order of their prospects for the next three weeks, they are:
4) Florida
Well, they’ve been here before, and that helps. Or does it? Spent the two weeks prior to the SEC Tournament sleep-walking before getting a jolt of life once they got to Atlanta. Good omen? Maybe, but their path through the conference tourney has been a walk in the park. They don’t have a real go-to player on offense, but depending on who’s hitting, that can be Al Horford, Lee Humphrey, Corey Brewer or Taurean Green. They’re one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament from beyond the arc, and even if they’re not hitting, Joakim Noah and Horford are there to clean things up. They defend very well on the perimeter, and their big guys do as good a job showing and getting back into the paint as anyone. Will motivation be a factor? Quite frankly it shouldn’t. This is their chance to be the first repeat winners since Duke did it 14 years ago. They have as good of a chance as anyone on paper, but the difficulty of a repeat can’t be underestimated.
3) North Carolina
Possibly the most talented team in the tournament and easily the deepest, often playing 10 guys. That bench will likely grow shorter as the month wears on though, and their fate will be in the hands of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandon Wright. Look for Rayshawn Terry to step up when things get tight toward the end of a game. They have one of the best coaches in the business in Roy Williams and are as quick a team as you’ll find. Are not particularly deep in the frontcourt though, and if Hansbrough gets in foul trouble, they rely on a rail-thin Wright for most of their post play.
Enigma) Texas
We put them here because we’re not sure if they belong at No. 5, No. 1, or off the list entirely. On this list because of one man: the growing legend that is Kevin Durant. He’s not only the best player in the country, he’s the best college basketball player since Tim Duncan. He can go inside, but is most comfortable in a mid-range game. Has ridiculous range for a man his size and will pull up for 27-footers knowing there’s nothing his defender can do. That being said, they’re not all Durant. D.J. Augustin is the closest thing the college game has seen to Jameer Nelson since, well, Nelson himself. A.J. Abrams is an assassin from beyond the arc. In fact, they feature four regulars who hit at least 40%. Their troubles could come from the sidelines. Rick Barnes often looks as if he has no clue how to get Durant the basketball in the best position to do damage, and Texas will often go multiple possessions down the stretch without letting Durant touch the ball. Obviously, that’s a problem, because without Durant doing his thing, that limits the effectiveness of Augustin and Abrams from three-point range. But they’ll have the best player on the court every time they play, and often, because of Augustin, they’ll have the two best.
2) Ohio State
Speaking of teams being here primarily because of one guy, here’s another: the Buckeyes and Greg Oden. Oden dominates game in a different fashion than Durant – on the defensive end. And, like Texas, they have other guys who can step up. Oden’s high school teammate Mike Conley Jr. has emerged as a great leader at the point guard position as a freshman. Daequan Cook is a remarkable athlete with range, and unlike the Longhorns, Ohio State has a group of upperclassmen who can play in Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler and Ivan Harris. They’re very fundamentally sound and they take care of the basketball. A lot will depend on Oden staying out of foul trouble. Their only three losses came against North Carolina, Wisconsin and Florida, which is either impressive or a cause for alarm depending on your point of view. Can they hang with the super athletic teams?
1) Kansas
A team full of stars, the brightest being Julian Wright, though he doesn’t get near the recognition that Oden, Durant, or even Brandon Wright get. Five guys average between 9.5 and 13.5 points per game. They defend, they’re athletic and they have shooters. Wright is a great passer and can expose a zone by getting in the middle and dishing inside or out. As is the case with four of our top five teams, they rely primarily on their freshmen and sophomores to get the job done. If there’s a chink in their armor, it could be free-throw shooting. They can also get moving too fast for their own good at times, which can lead to turnovers. Overall, though, they have to be considered the favorite as we wait for the brackets to be unveiled.
More to come as we break down the brackets…
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
The title that money can't buy
“One bounce, that's all it took. One pingpong ball, and LeBron James stays home. One pingpong ball, and the Cavaliers go from the team with the NBA's worst record and lowest attendance to perhaps the hottest ticket in town. One pingpong ball, and suddenly experienced coaches will want to come to Cleveland, and viable veterans should want to play for the Cavs. One pingpong ball And Cavs fans have hope.”
-Akron Beacon Journal, May 23, 2003
In some ways, I remember May 22, 2003, like I remember Sept. 11, 2001. Like people remember when the Challenger exploded in 1986. Like people remember when JFK was gunned down in Dallas. It was one of those occasions, at least to one town, one fan base, where you remember who you were with, where you were and how much your face hurt from smiling.
It was the day the Cleveland Cavaliers won the NBA Draft lottery, guaranteeing themselves that LeBron James would cruise into the league wearing wine and gold.
(My parents’ living room. Home from college. Pacing back and forth. Went outside and screamed loud enough to bother the neighbors six houses down. With my dad sitting in his brown La-Z-Boy).
Some kids who grow up sports fans remember the smell of the grass at their first baseball game. I remember a four digit combination of ping-pong balls.
This was IT for Cleveland. The Drive, the Fumble, the Shot, the Mesa Meltdown … it was all ancient history. The most hyped amateur athlete ever was ours. And he’d be playing in his own backyard.
Game-winning shots. 50-point games. League MVP.
Even the big words weren’t laughable anymore. Ch-cha-championship. People weren’t afraid to say it. Heck, I’ll take your title talk and make it plural. We had Houdini in high-tops. Eleven other players, a coach, a front office … none of it mattered on May 22, 2003…
“Here's what I know. I had four conversations with connected NBA people over the weekend that centered around the same themes: LeBron isn't playing nearly as hard as he did last season; it looks like his only goal right now is to get his coach fired; he's regressing as a basketball player (especially his passing skills and his shot selection); he made a huge mistake firing his agent and turning his career over to his buddies back home (all of whom are in over their heads); he was a much bigger problem during the Olympics than anyone realized; he doesn't seem to be enjoying himself anymore; he has an overrated sense of his own worth and his own impact in the sports world (as witnessed by the ESPN interview last week when he answered the ‘What are your goals?’ question with two words: ‘Global icon’); he's been protected by magazine fluff pieces and buddy-buddy TV interviews for far too long; he doesn't have the same relentless drive to keep dominating everyone like Wade and Kobe have; and basically, we're much closer to LeBron re-enacting the career arc of Martina Hingis, Eric Lindros and Junior Griffey than anyone realizes. This will evolve into THE dominant NBA story of the next two months. You watch.”
-ESPN.com, Feb. 20, 2007
And here we are three years and nine months later. Heck, nine months ago we were still knee-deep in the glory of that first paragraph. The Cavaliers had knocked off the Wizards in LeBron’s first playoff series and had battled the seemingly invincible Pistons tooth-and-nail in a seven-game circus ride in Round Two.
LeBron signed an extension in the summer. Progress was being made. The foundation was there. The Finals weren’t far off. Size up those ring fingers, boys.
We sat down to watch this season, the popcorn buttered and the soda on ice, feet up, ready to witness what was next. Only once we were strapped in, the video was a little bit ahead of the audio, like one of those old movies in Japanese that’s given an English translation. Lips were reciting words that didn’t quite seem to fit. We sat down anticipating The Empire Strikes Back but instead we’re seeing The Phantom Menace.
Maybe we all expected this one man to do too much. Placing the weight of an NBA franchise on an 18-year-old kid had never been dreamed of before this. But the thing was, with all the hype, with the expectations, he came out and exceeded all of it that first year. What else could we anticipate other than excellence?
Then, a funny thing happened as the arc continued upward in years two and three, leading to this fourth season of extraordinary expectation. Beyond the shoe deals, trading card cash and sports drink dinero, LeBron had a new goal in mind: to be “the richest man in the world.”
Michael Jordan was arguably the greatest basketball player to ever walk this Earth. He made more money than the average person could dream of. But the richest man in the world? That’s a title reserved for guys like Bill Gates, Paul Allen and Warren Buffett (who LeBron met with over milkshakes this summer). Not long after that meeting, he clued us in to his “richest man” wishes, and soon after, earning potential surpassed assist-to-turnover ratio on LeBron’s hot list. Jordan didn’t set out to be a global icon, like LeBron claims he wants to be. He worked until he was the best player in the game, one who transcended his sport, and his popularity took off.
We’re led to believe Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Eric Snow are to blame for what has been an underwhelming season in Cleveland, and there are certainly elements of truth to that. Hughes is more fragile than a Faberge egg, Ilgauskas is hot and cold, and Snow would struggle to shoot the ball into a whirlpool consistently. But, as the self-proclaimed leader of this team, LeBron has to pick up the slack. He can’t wander around the perimeter dribbling incessantly, then jack up a 25-footer as the shot clock winds down. He can’t disappear in the fourth quarter, something you’d never dream of seeing out of this wunderkind last year.
Maybe most of all, he needs to stop construction on that Habitat for Humanity home he’s building with his bricks from the free-throw line. And as any basketball mind worth his salt knows, free throws are mental.
As long as LeBron James is employed by the National Basketball Association, he’ll be one of the league’s top 10 players. He’s simply too talented, too special to be anything else. But as far as he’s come since entering the NBA, he hasn’t crossed that bridge from individual superstar to winner, and I’m afraid he never will. The great ones all had megawatt talent – Jordan, Bird, Russell, Kareem, Magic. Most, if not all of them, had less than LeBron. But the reason those guys have their fingers decked out with rings is because they wanted it more than anything. They had that burning desire to cut their opponents’ throat, that fire in their eyes to always take and make that last shot to win a ballgame, or, if necessary, to stop the best guy on the other team from doing the same.
That’s one trait that LeBron may never possess. Like height, I don’t know if that champion’s mentality can be taught.
One thing’s for sure: it can’t be bought and sold, or traded like a stock. And without it, LeBron will never be the richest man in the world.
-Akron Beacon Journal, May 23, 2003
In some ways, I remember May 22, 2003, like I remember Sept. 11, 2001. Like people remember when the Challenger exploded in 1986. Like people remember when JFK was gunned down in Dallas. It was one of those occasions, at least to one town, one fan base, where you remember who you were with, where you were and how much your face hurt from smiling.
It was the day the Cleveland Cavaliers won the NBA Draft lottery, guaranteeing themselves that LeBron James would cruise into the league wearing wine and gold.
(My parents’ living room. Home from college. Pacing back and forth. Went outside and screamed loud enough to bother the neighbors six houses down. With my dad sitting in his brown La-Z-Boy).
Some kids who grow up sports fans remember the smell of the grass at their first baseball game. I remember a four digit combination of ping-pong balls.
This was IT for Cleveland. The Drive, the Fumble, the Shot, the Mesa Meltdown … it was all ancient history. The most hyped amateur athlete ever was ours. And he’d be playing in his own backyard.
Game-winning shots. 50-point games. League MVP.
Even the big words weren’t laughable anymore. Ch-cha-championship. People weren’t afraid to say it. Heck, I’ll take your title talk and make it plural. We had Houdini in high-tops. Eleven other players, a coach, a front office … none of it mattered on May 22, 2003…
“Here's what I know. I had four conversations with connected NBA people over the weekend that centered around the same themes: LeBron isn't playing nearly as hard as he did last season; it looks like his only goal right now is to get his coach fired; he's regressing as a basketball player (especially his passing skills and his shot selection); he made a huge mistake firing his agent and turning his career over to his buddies back home (all of whom are in over their heads); he was a much bigger problem during the Olympics than anyone realized; he doesn't seem to be enjoying himself anymore; he has an overrated sense of his own worth and his own impact in the sports world (as witnessed by the ESPN interview last week when he answered the ‘What are your goals?’ question with two words: ‘Global icon’); he's been protected by magazine fluff pieces and buddy-buddy TV interviews for far too long; he doesn't have the same relentless drive to keep dominating everyone like Wade and Kobe have; and basically, we're much closer to LeBron re-enacting the career arc of Martina Hingis, Eric Lindros and Junior Griffey than anyone realizes. This will evolve into THE dominant NBA story of the next two months. You watch.”
-ESPN.com, Feb. 20, 2007
And here we are three years and nine months later. Heck, nine months ago we were still knee-deep in the glory of that first paragraph. The Cavaliers had knocked off the Wizards in LeBron’s first playoff series and had battled the seemingly invincible Pistons tooth-and-nail in a seven-game circus ride in Round Two.
LeBron signed an extension in the summer. Progress was being made. The foundation was there. The Finals weren’t far off. Size up those ring fingers, boys.
We sat down to watch this season, the popcorn buttered and the soda on ice, feet up, ready to witness what was next. Only once we were strapped in, the video was a little bit ahead of the audio, like one of those old movies in Japanese that’s given an English translation. Lips were reciting words that didn’t quite seem to fit. We sat down anticipating The Empire Strikes Back but instead we’re seeing The Phantom Menace.
Maybe we all expected this one man to do too much. Placing the weight of an NBA franchise on an 18-year-old kid had never been dreamed of before this. But the thing was, with all the hype, with the expectations, he came out and exceeded all of it that first year. What else could we anticipate other than excellence?
Then, a funny thing happened as the arc continued upward in years two and three, leading to this fourth season of extraordinary expectation. Beyond the shoe deals, trading card cash and sports drink dinero, LeBron had a new goal in mind: to be “the richest man in the world.”
Michael Jordan was arguably the greatest basketball player to ever walk this Earth. He made more money than the average person could dream of. But the richest man in the world? That’s a title reserved for guys like Bill Gates, Paul Allen and Warren Buffett (who LeBron met with over milkshakes this summer). Not long after that meeting, he clued us in to his “richest man” wishes, and soon after, earning potential surpassed assist-to-turnover ratio on LeBron’s hot list. Jordan didn’t set out to be a global icon, like LeBron claims he wants to be. He worked until he was the best player in the game, one who transcended his sport, and his popularity took off.
We’re led to believe Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Eric Snow are to blame for what has been an underwhelming season in Cleveland, and there are certainly elements of truth to that. Hughes is more fragile than a Faberge egg, Ilgauskas is hot and cold, and Snow would struggle to shoot the ball into a whirlpool consistently. But, as the self-proclaimed leader of this team, LeBron has to pick up the slack. He can’t wander around the perimeter dribbling incessantly, then jack up a 25-footer as the shot clock winds down. He can’t disappear in the fourth quarter, something you’d never dream of seeing out of this wunderkind last year.
Maybe most of all, he needs to stop construction on that Habitat for Humanity home he’s building with his bricks from the free-throw line. And as any basketball mind worth his salt knows, free throws are mental.
As long as LeBron James is employed by the National Basketball Association, he’ll be one of the league’s top 10 players. He’s simply too talented, too special to be anything else. But as far as he’s come since entering the NBA, he hasn’t crossed that bridge from individual superstar to winner, and I’m afraid he never will. The great ones all had megawatt talent – Jordan, Bird, Russell, Kareem, Magic. Most, if not all of them, had less than LeBron. But the reason those guys have their fingers decked out with rings is because they wanted it more than anything. They had that burning desire to cut their opponents’ throat, that fire in their eyes to always take and make that last shot to win a ballgame, or, if necessary, to stop the best guy on the other team from doing the same.
That’s one trait that LeBron may never possess. Like height, I don’t know if that champion’s mentality can be taught.
One thing’s for sure: it can’t be bought and sold, or traded like a stock. And without it, LeBron will never be the richest man in the world.
Friday, January 27, 2006
Steelers MVP? A 'Mad'dening choice
Looking back on the Pittsburgh Steelers' 11-5 season and their remarkable road warrior run once they hit the playoffs, it's hard to pick a most valuable player.
Hines Ward and Casey Hampton shared the award voted on by the players, and neither is a foolish choice. Ward is the heart and soul of what the Steelers do. He'll drag defensive backs to the turf when blocking downfield, or he'll go over the middle to make that tough catch when it's needed most. Hampton is the unsung hero in the middle of the defense. His job isn't necessarily to make tackles - it's to provide penetration in the offensive line and free up his teammates to get after the opponent.
And it's not like Ward and Hampton were the only viable candidates for the award. Willie Parker came out of nowhere to rush for 1,200 yards. Alan Faneca had another Pro Bowl-caliber year plowing holes for Parker and Jerome Bettis. Troy Polamalu wasn't just an intimidating presence in the secondary - he was the best safety in the NFL.
But here's betting if the vote took into account postseason success instead of just the 16-game jaunt through the regular season, there would be no co-MVPs. In fact, the winner would be unanimous. He lines up every day under center, and knows what it's like to have a cult following in the Steel City. He's heard thousands of fans scream his name in a playoff win.
He's Tommy Maddox.
Sure, Ben Roethlisberger gets the headlines, the commercials, the endorsements and the girls. He's the one who threw for 2400 yards in the 12 games he played, the one who won his first 16 games as a starter in the NFL.
But what the ex-insurance salesman did is all that mattered.
Maddox started two games this season - the first following an injury to Roethlisberger, the second after Charlie Batch had broken his hand.
In the first game, against Jacksonville, Maddox wasn't just bad. He set the forward pass back 15 years. He completed 14 of 28 passes on the day - not great, but not horrible for a guy who hadn't seen action in 13 months. Unfortunately for Tommy Teriffic, three of those passes went to Jacksonville defenders, the final one a wounded duck in overtime that Jags DB Rashean Mathis took 40 yards to the house. That loss dropped the Steelers to 3-2.
Big Ben returned the next week and led the Black and Gold to a 27-13 thumping of the eventual-AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals in the Queen City, and the Steelers dispatched of the Ravens the next week during a Monday night affair in Pittsburgh. But No. 7's right knee, injured during a Week 5 victory in San Diego, was hit with a cleat, forcing him to miss the next three games.
Because no NFL coach with an interest in keeping his job would have trotted Maddox out there with ANY better option available, Batch took the helm. He struggled somewhat against Green Bay but got the win. He looked phenomonal against Cleveland before breaking said hand shortly before halftime, leaving the Steelers with Touchdown Tommy as their only healthy QB. With a lead that could have been as easily protected by a blind, one-legged giraffe, Tommy threw only seven passes and the Steelers won the game.
In Week 11, it was up to Tommy again. He responded by getting sacked six times and missing wide open receivers in a 16-13 loss to the Ravens, a game which, it's safe to say, could have been managed and won by nearly any practice squad QB in the NFL, CFL, NFL Europe or the local Pop Warner league had he had any semblance of accuracy or feet quicker than those of a paralyzed turtle in concrete.
We all know the rest of the story. Ben returns the next week, and by the time he truly get his feet under him again, the Steelers hit their stride.
They finished the season 11-5, tied with the Bengals for first place in the North, but due to a tiebreaker, the Steelers go from the three seed (if they win the division) to the six seed - otherwise known as playoff doom and gloom, a spot that requires three road wins to get to the Super Bowl. In other words, right where they wanted to be.
Had Roethlisberger never been injured, the Steelers would have won at least 13 games. The Baltimore game, and especially the Jacksonville game, would have turned out drastically different.
Thirteen wins would have taken the division, and forced the Steelers to play Cincinnati at home in the first round. Had they won, they would have gone to Denver - where they won the AFC championship - but this would have been a round earlier. Assuming they win that game, it's either to New England (the last place Pittsburgh would have wanted to go) or Indianapolis (for a Colts team that would have had a chance to regroup after not having played a meaningful game in a month).
If that were the path, who knows if the Steelers even make it out of the wild card round against Cincinnati. Sure, it can be argued, possibly with great merit, that these Steelers are a team of destiny, that they were bound and determined to accomplish unthinkable feats regardless of who they played and where.
But one thing's for certain. This is a team that thrives with its back against the wall. They went into Week 14 against Chicago knowing that they couldn't lose again if they wanted their season to continue - and they've won every game since.
Tommy Maddox's play during his two starts in 2005 did nothing but hurt his team. But in the end, his inadequacies as a quarterback may have helped set the Steelers up to do what they haven't done since Jimmy Carter was in office and Wayne Gretzky was a wide-eyed 18-year-old rookie in the NHL - win a Super Bowl.
Hines Ward and Casey Hampton shared the award voted on by the players, and neither is a foolish choice. Ward is the heart and soul of what the Steelers do. He'll drag defensive backs to the turf when blocking downfield, or he'll go over the middle to make that tough catch when it's needed most. Hampton is the unsung hero in the middle of the defense. His job isn't necessarily to make tackles - it's to provide penetration in the offensive line and free up his teammates to get after the opponent.
And it's not like Ward and Hampton were the only viable candidates for the award. Willie Parker came out of nowhere to rush for 1,200 yards. Alan Faneca had another Pro Bowl-caliber year plowing holes for Parker and Jerome Bettis. Troy Polamalu wasn't just an intimidating presence in the secondary - he was the best safety in the NFL.
But here's betting if the vote took into account postseason success instead of just the 16-game jaunt through the regular season, there would be no co-MVPs. In fact, the winner would be unanimous. He lines up every day under center, and knows what it's like to have a cult following in the Steel City. He's heard thousands of fans scream his name in a playoff win.
He's Tommy Maddox.
Sure, Ben Roethlisberger gets the headlines, the commercials, the endorsements and the girls. He's the one who threw for 2400 yards in the 12 games he played, the one who won his first 16 games as a starter in the NFL.
But what the ex-insurance salesman did is all that mattered.
Maddox started two games this season - the first following an injury to Roethlisberger, the second after Charlie Batch had broken his hand.
In the first game, against Jacksonville, Maddox wasn't just bad. He set the forward pass back 15 years. He completed 14 of 28 passes on the day - not great, but not horrible for a guy who hadn't seen action in 13 months. Unfortunately for Tommy Teriffic, three of those passes went to Jacksonville defenders, the final one a wounded duck in overtime that Jags DB Rashean Mathis took 40 yards to the house. That loss dropped the Steelers to 3-2.
Big Ben returned the next week and led the Black and Gold to a 27-13 thumping of the eventual-AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals in the Queen City, and the Steelers dispatched of the Ravens the next week during a Monday night affair in Pittsburgh. But No. 7's right knee, injured during a Week 5 victory in San Diego, was hit with a cleat, forcing him to miss the next three games.
Because no NFL coach with an interest in keeping his job would have trotted Maddox out there with ANY better option available, Batch took the helm. He struggled somewhat against Green Bay but got the win. He looked phenomonal against Cleveland before breaking said hand shortly before halftime, leaving the Steelers with Touchdown Tommy as their only healthy QB. With a lead that could have been as easily protected by a blind, one-legged giraffe, Tommy threw only seven passes and the Steelers won the game.
In Week 11, it was up to Tommy again. He responded by getting sacked six times and missing wide open receivers in a 16-13 loss to the Ravens, a game which, it's safe to say, could have been managed and won by nearly any practice squad QB in the NFL, CFL, NFL Europe or the local Pop Warner league had he had any semblance of accuracy or feet quicker than those of a paralyzed turtle in concrete.
We all know the rest of the story. Ben returns the next week, and by the time he truly get his feet under him again, the Steelers hit their stride.
They finished the season 11-5, tied with the Bengals for first place in the North, but due to a tiebreaker, the Steelers go from the three seed (if they win the division) to the six seed - otherwise known as playoff doom and gloom, a spot that requires three road wins to get to the Super Bowl. In other words, right where they wanted to be.
Had Roethlisberger never been injured, the Steelers would have won at least 13 games. The Baltimore game, and especially the Jacksonville game, would have turned out drastically different.
Thirteen wins would have taken the division, and forced the Steelers to play Cincinnati at home in the first round. Had they won, they would have gone to Denver - where they won the AFC championship - but this would have been a round earlier. Assuming they win that game, it's either to New England (the last place Pittsburgh would have wanted to go) or Indianapolis (for a Colts team that would have had a chance to regroup after not having played a meaningful game in a month).
If that were the path, who knows if the Steelers even make it out of the wild card round against Cincinnati. Sure, it can be argued, possibly with great merit, that these Steelers are a team of destiny, that they were bound and determined to accomplish unthinkable feats regardless of who they played and where.
But one thing's for certain. This is a team that thrives with its back against the wall. They went into Week 14 against Chicago knowing that they couldn't lose again if they wanted their season to continue - and they've won every game since.
Tommy Maddox's play during his two starts in 2005 did nothing but hurt his team. But in the end, his inadequacies as a quarterback may have helped set the Steelers up to do what they haven't done since Jimmy Carter was in office and Wayne Gretzky was a wide-eyed 18-year-old rookie in the NHL - win a Super Bowl.
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
11-0 and still rolling
Well, it became painfully clear to the rest of the NFL Monday night that the Colts are very much no longer the one-trick pony they used to be. They punched the typically physical Steelers right in Bill Cowher's proverbial jaw on their way to a 26-7 victory that wasn't even that close.
The Steelers came in with a simple game plan: control the clock and keep the ball away from Peyton Manning and friends. Unfortunately, as has been far too often the case in Bill Cowher's 15 years of spittle-inducing fury on the sidelines, that plan was exposed early for what is was: vanilla and unrealistic.
The Steelers have not been able to run the ball succesfully against good defenses this year. They went for 104 against San Diego, but ran for under 80 against Baltimore, Jacksonville, and a New England defense that in September wasn't quite the M.A.S.H. unit it currently resembles. Yes, they ran all over the Bengals, but Cincinnati's defense has yet to earn the label of elite unit.
So what did they try to do Monday night? Run, run, and run some more to play "clockball." They ran the ball on nine of their first 12 first downs and gained two or fewer yards on six of those attempts. The Colts knew the Steelers were going to run. Tony Dungy knew the Steelers were going to run. Heck, even John Madden knew the Steelers were going to run. But their lack of success and Cowher's stubborn nature didn't stop them from throwing the ball early against a defense geared to stop the run.
Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the '05 Steelers is their lack of interest in even ATTEMPTING a pass more than 20 yards downfield. Ben Roethlisberger, at one point Monday evening, had completed 13 passes for about 65 yards. Five yards per completion isn't gonna get it done against the 49ers, let alone the Colts.
This simply isn't the same squad as the '04 group that easily could have gone to and won the Super Bowl had it not been for the same style of coaching that has let them down time and time again in big games over the last decade and a half. The offensive line has been banged up (in the case of Marvel Smith), less effective than usual and aging (Alan Faneca, Jeff Hartings), inexperienced and probably not very good to begin with (Trai Essex), far more bad than good (Max Starks) and flat-out abysmal (Kendall Simmons). Jerome Bettis is a year older and a few tires wider. The superbly talented Plaxico Burress has been replaced by the marginally talented Cedric Wilson. Antwaan Randle El has been replaced with an even less useful Antwaan Randle El.
On the defensive side of the ball, Joey Porter has been on the decline since the middle of '04 at the latest, Larry Foote is putrid and Clark Haggans and James Farrior have been hurt. The secondary has taken a lot of heat when the team has been struggling, but the real culprit has been the defensive front, which generates pressure on the opposing QB about as often as we're treated to Haley's comet in the night sky. The 3-4 defense isn't the optimal defense for getting penetration up front against a passing attack, but combined with the lack of any semblance of effective blitzing, which far too often involves the corners or safeties, it has been rendered obsolete.
The greatest problem though is the change that didn't take place in the offseason. Bill Cowher is still wearing the headset on the sidelines and gazing peculiarly at the events unfolding before him like a man walking in on his wife making love to a unicorn. Pick your poison from Monday night's throttling and you can make a case for a man who should no longer be in control of the NFL team that has done the least with its superior talent in the past 10 years. It doesn't matter whether it was the run-first attitude that didn't change following its lack of success, the completely absurd onside kick to start the second half, or the unconscionable 4th-and-5 decision to let Roethliberger run a QB draw ... each epitomized Cowher's coaching style. To put it simply, he's scared to lose, and that was painfully clear Monday night.
Particularly in the case of the onside kick, he basically admitted that his offense, which did nothing in the first half that wasn't handed to them, needed the ball, while his defense, which came together quite nicely following the debacle that was the first play from scrimmage, was not to be trusted with the Colts starting at their own 25 or so.
In the meantime, the Colts are clearly the class of the NFL and, despite having a coach who has come up as big in critical game over his career as Cowher has, will vault over that hump this year. With Manning essentially running the show and the defensive line ensuring the big plays against will be kept to a minimum, there isn't a team in the league that should be able to run with the Colts. Denver is the closest option, but Jake Plummer in a road playoff game? Not likely.
The Steelers came in with a simple game plan: control the clock and keep the ball away from Peyton Manning and friends. Unfortunately, as has been far too often the case in Bill Cowher's 15 years of spittle-inducing fury on the sidelines, that plan was exposed early for what is was: vanilla and unrealistic.
The Steelers have not been able to run the ball succesfully against good defenses this year. They went for 104 against San Diego, but ran for under 80 against Baltimore, Jacksonville, and a New England defense that in September wasn't quite the M.A.S.H. unit it currently resembles. Yes, they ran all over the Bengals, but Cincinnati's defense has yet to earn the label of elite unit.
So what did they try to do Monday night? Run, run, and run some more to play "clockball." They ran the ball on nine of their first 12 first downs and gained two or fewer yards on six of those attempts. The Colts knew the Steelers were going to run. Tony Dungy knew the Steelers were going to run. Heck, even John Madden knew the Steelers were going to run. But their lack of success and Cowher's stubborn nature didn't stop them from throwing the ball early against a defense geared to stop the run.
Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the '05 Steelers is their lack of interest in even ATTEMPTING a pass more than 20 yards downfield. Ben Roethlisberger, at one point Monday evening, had completed 13 passes for about 65 yards. Five yards per completion isn't gonna get it done against the 49ers, let alone the Colts.
This simply isn't the same squad as the '04 group that easily could have gone to and won the Super Bowl had it not been for the same style of coaching that has let them down time and time again in big games over the last decade and a half. The offensive line has been banged up (in the case of Marvel Smith), less effective than usual and aging (Alan Faneca, Jeff Hartings), inexperienced and probably not very good to begin with (Trai Essex), far more bad than good (Max Starks) and flat-out abysmal (Kendall Simmons). Jerome Bettis is a year older and a few tires wider. The superbly talented Plaxico Burress has been replaced by the marginally talented Cedric Wilson. Antwaan Randle El has been replaced with an even less useful Antwaan Randle El.
On the defensive side of the ball, Joey Porter has been on the decline since the middle of '04 at the latest, Larry Foote is putrid and Clark Haggans and James Farrior have been hurt. The secondary has taken a lot of heat when the team has been struggling, but the real culprit has been the defensive front, which generates pressure on the opposing QB about as often as we're treated to Haley's comet in the night sky. The 3-4 defense isn't the optimal defense for getting penetration up front against a passing attack, but combined with the lack of any semblance of effective blitzing, which far too often involves the corners or safeties, it has been rendered obsolete.
The greatest problem though is the change that didn't take place in the offseason. Bill Cowher is still wearing the headset on the sidelines and gazing peculiarly at the events unfolding before him like a man walking in on his wife making love to a unicorn. Pick your poison from Monday night's throttling and you can make a case for a man who should no longer be in control of the NFL team that has done the least with its superior talent in the past 10 years. It doesn't matter whether it was the run-first attitude that didn't change following its lack of success, the completely absurd onside kick to start the second half, or the unconscionable 4th-and-5 decision to let Roethliberger run a QB draw ... each epitomized Cowher's coaching style. To put it simply, he's scared to lose, and that was painfully clear Monday night.
Particularly in the case of the onside kick, he basically admitted that his offense, which did nothing in the first half that wasn't handed to them, needed the ball, while his defense, which came together quite nicely following the debacle that was the first play from scrimmage, was not to be trusted with the Colts starting at their own 25 or so.
In the meantime, the Colts are clearly the class of the NFL and, despite having a coach who has come up as big in critical game over his career as Cowher has, will vault over that hump this year. With Manning essentially running the show and the defensive line ensuring the big plays against will be kept to a minimum, there isn't a team in the league that should be able to run with the Colts. Denver is the closest option, but Jake Plummer in a road playoff game? Not likely.
Friday, November 18, 2005
Rivalry weekend
After nearly a month of the laptop being on hiatus thanks to, in the words of the fine Asian gentleman who fixed it, a "shot hard drive," the blog returns as college football (and in a small way, the NFL) heads into rivalry weekend.
When we came to you last, Penn State was reeling from a last-second loss at the Big House in Ann Arbor, a result of a vanilla defense, questionable officiating from a crew chief that, like most Big 11 zebras, hailed from the great state of Michigan, and perhaps most significantly, lobbying from Lloyd Carr for two more seconds on the clock. Since then, the Lions have reeled off three impressive "on-the-surface" wins - less impressive when you consider the fact the opponents were a team playing above its heads in Barry Alvarez's final season, perhaps the single biggest disappointment in D-I college football, and perhaps the worst team from a major conference in the past 15 years not named Temple.
Now, the Lions head into East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that is playing the role its most comfortable with: late-season spoiler, trying to salvage its own season after running off to a lightning-quick start and proceeding to collapse in mid-October. No one knows the role better than Michigan State. Add in the fact that the Spartans are 9-1 against Top 10 opponents since 1997 (one of the truly great "are you kidding?" stats to come along in a while), and the upset alert is on.
The stakes are simple enough: win and PSU is the Big 11 Champion, on its way to a BCS bowl, and on the couch for the next two weeks hoping USC or Texas, among others, falter so that it may have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Lose and more than likely head to Orlando for a second trip in four years to the Crapital One Bowl. Not good times.
One of the most interesting questions to consider at this point is where Penn State would be had Chad Henne not hit Mario Maningham in the end zone on that fortuitous final play. The answer seems pretty clear - third in the BCS, third in all the polls, as they would be the third undefeated team behind SC and Texas. So basically, all it did in the long run was cost Penn State one spot in the BCS rankings.
As it currently stands, Penn State needs to win at Michigan State and get help in the following form: SC or Texas must lose, and either Miami or possibly LSU must lose as well.
Why LSU you ask, a team that Penn State is one spot ahead of in the BCS? LSU still sits ahead of Penn State in the two polls that count toward the BCS. Should Penn State move up one spot in each it may - and I stress may - be enough to surpass the Hurricanes even should Miami win out. However, the more likely scenario is the PSU needs a loss by the 'Canes in addition to Goliath A or Goliath B faltering.
I'd place the odds of Penn State slithering into the Rose Bowl at about 5 percent: Though I believe the Lions would give SC or Texas a hell of a game, those two are looking semi-invincable (or in the case of Texas, in-Vince-ible) and Miami is playing its best ball at the right time.
On to some picks for the weekend:
IOWA (-4.5) over Minnesota:
I'll take Minnesota in the dome, but Iowa's pink locker rooms will do the trick in this one. Laurence Maroney is probable, and though the Gophers can run with or without home, look for Iowa, reinvigorated from its win at Wisconsin, to pull it out late.
Pick: Iowa 38, Minnesota 30
Northwestern (-15.5) over ILLINOIS:
Team A can score points. Team B can't. Team A can play defense on occasion. Team B can't. Team A has a quarterback who throws it to his own receivers. Team B has a quarterback who throws to Teams C, D, E, F, G, H and I. Team A ain't Illinois.
Pick: Northwestern 48, Illinois 20
INDIANA (+12.5) over Purdue:
Indiana, despite trouncing Illinois earlier in the fall, has done everything possible over the last month to make people believe they are just as bad as the Illini. But they're not quite that bad, and thanks to the nature of this game in the state of Indiana (and ONLY in the state of Indiana), they'll hang close for a while.
Pick: Purdue 34, Indiana 26
Ohio State (-3) over MICHIGAN:
Winner of this one takes the Big Ten's BCS bid should Penn State falter. Despite it being in Ann Arbor, it's as simple as this: Ohio State is deserving of winning or sharing the conference crown; this Michigan team, despite showing marked improvement in the past month, is not.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20
MICHIGAN STATE (+8) over Penn State:
History suggest the battle for the Land Grant trophy will be a blowout in favor of the home team. Logic, among other strong variables, suggest it will be a blowout in favor of the road team. Michigan State's season comes down to this game, and East Lansing will be alive for this game, whereas if any other team were waltzing in at this point, the Spartans may have simply rolled over. But Penn State will be ready.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 26
And the upset special of the week, leaving Penn State one SC/Texas loss shy of the Rose Bowl:
Georgia Tech (+18) over MIAMI:
Miami has its final two games at home before a likely ACC championship game tilt against Florida State. Unfortunately for the 'Canes, this is a team that can often go out feeling it has something to prove on the road, while playing lackluster ball at home. This college football season has lacked the big, big upset, all season, and an 18-point dog going into the No. 3 team in the nation's house and winning would do the trick.
Pick: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27
When we came to you last, Penn State was reeling from a last-second loss at the Big House in Ann Arbor, a result of a vanilla defense, questionable officiating from a crew chief that, like most Big 11 zebras, hailed from the great state of Michigan, and perhaps most significantly, lobbying from Lloyd Carr for two more seconds on the clock. Since then, the Lions have reeled off three impressive "on-the-surface" wins - less impressive when you consider the fact the opponents were a team playing above its heads in Barry Alvarez's final season, perhaps the single biggest disappointment in D-I college football, and perhaps the worst team from a major conference in the past 15 years not named Temple.
Now, the Lions head into East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that is playing the role its most comfortable with: late-season spoiler, trying to salvage its own season after running off to a lightning-quick start and proceeding to collapse in mid-October. No one knows the role better than Michigan State. Add in the fact that the Spartans are 9-1 against Top 10 opponents since 1997 (one of the truly great "are you kidding?" stats to come along in a while), and the upset alert is on.
The stakes are simple enough: win and PSU is the Big 11 Champion, on its way to a BCS bowl, and on the couch for the next two weeks hoping USC or Texas, among others, falter so that it may have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Lose and more than likely head to Orlando for a second trip in four years to the Crapital One Bowl. Not good times.
One of the most interesting questions to consider at this point is where Penn State would be had Chad Henne not hit Mario Maningham in the end zone on that fortuitous final play. The answer seems pretty clear - third in the BCS, third in all the polls, as they would be the third undefeated team behind SC and Texas. So basically, all it did in the long run was cost Penn State one spot in the BCS rankings.
As it currently stands, Penn State needs to win at Michigan State and get help in the following form: SC or Texas must lose, and either Miami or possibly LSU must lose as well.
Why LSU you ask, a team that Penn State is one spot ahead of in the BCS? LSU still sits ahead of Penn State in the two polls that count toward the BCS. Should Penn State move up one spot in each it may - and I stress may - be enough to surpass the Hurricanes even should Miami win out. However, the more likely scenario is the PSU needs a loss by the 'Canes in addition to Goliath A or Goliath B faltering.
I'd place the odds of Penn State slithering into the Rose Bowl at about 5 percent: Though I believe the Lions would give SC or Texas a hell of a game, those two are looking semi-invincable (or in the case of Texas, in-Vince-ible) and Miami is playing its best ball at the right time.
On to some picks for the weekend:
IOWA (-4.5) over Minnesota:
I'll take Minnesota in the dome, but Iowa's pink locker rooms will do the trick in this one. Laurence Maroney is probable, and though the Gophers can run with or without home, look for Iowa, reinvigorated from its win at Wisconsin, to pull it out late.
Pick: Iowa 38, Minnesota 30
Northwestern (-15.5) over ILLINOIS:
Team A can score points. Team B can't. Team A can play defense on occasion. Team B can't. Team A has a quarterback who throws it to his own receivers. Team B has a quarterback who throws to Teams C, D, E, F, G, H and I. Team A ain't Illinois.
Pick: Northwestern 48, Illinois 20
INDIANA (+12.5) over Purdue:
Indiana, despite trouncing Illinois earlier in the fall, has done everything possible over the last month to make people believe they are just as bad as the Illini. But they're not quite that bad, and thanks to the nature of this game in the state of Indiana (and ONLY in the state of Indiana), they'll hang close for a while.
Pick: Purdue 34, Indiana 26
Ohio State (-3) over MICHIGAN:
Winner of this one takes the Big Ten's BCS bid should Penn State falter. Despite it being in Ann Arbor, it's as simple as this: Ohio State is deserving of winning or sharing the conference crown; this Michigan team, despite showing marked improvement in the past month, is not.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20
MICHIGAN STATE (+8) over Penn State:
History suggest the battle for the Land Grant trophy will be a blowout in favor of the home team. Logic, among other strong variables, suggest it will be a blowout in favor of the road team. Michigan State's season comes down to this game, and East Lansing will be alive for this game, whereas if any other team were waltzing in at this point, the Spartans may have simply rolled over. But Penn State will be ready.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 26
And the upset special of the week, leaving Penn State one SC/Texas loss shy of the Rose Bowl:
Georgia Tech (+18) over MIAMI:
Miami has its final two games at home before a likely ACC championship game tilt against Florida State. Unfortunately for the 'Canes, this is a team that can often go out feeling it has something to prove on the road, while playing lackluster ball at home. This college football season has lacked the big, big upset, all season, and an 18-point dog going into the No. 3 team in the nation's house and winning would do the trick.
Pick: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27
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