2007 NFL Preview

Like a sold-out concert tour with three big-name performers, the gods of football will spend the next few weekends rolling out a package of pigskin acts in reverse order of demand. High school football has already gotten started in many parts of the country, major college football gets its first full slate of games in tomorrow, and then, one week later, the NFL gets under way in its entirety. Here at Give-and-Go, we’ll spend the next few weeks breaking down the NFL in a tiered system designed to give you an idea of who’s got a shot at playing in January, who’s plodding along toward mediocrity, and who’ll be spending a lot of time in Fayetteville, Ark., scouting Darren McFadden. And much like any good musical montage, we’ll save the best for last. In reverse order of hope, away we go…

Start charging $6 per hot dog and $20 for a foam finger, because you’re gonna need it for that signing bonus next April

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Boy, talk about some Hard Knocks. HBO’s latest darling of the documentary snuck into the playoffs last year at 9-7 thanks to the West Coast’s own version of Santa Claus, the San Francisco 49ers. Alex Smith and the boys stunned Denver in Mile High in overtime to close the regular season and the Chiefs’ reward was a backdoor entrance into a world of hurt via the Colts on Wild Card Weekend. The offseason saw the offensive line take a big step backwards, losing Willie Roaf to retirement and Jordan Black to the Texans in free agency. Damion McIntosh was brought in to replace Roaf at left tackle, but he suffered a knee injury during training camp and may miss the season opener.

The man this makeshift line is supposed to be opening holes for is Larry Johnson, who should be no worse for the wear after holding out through most of the preseason. Now that his new, $43-million deal is done, he should be ready to go from opening week. Of course, if you want to question how healthy he’ll be after an NFL-record 416 carries last year, be my guest.

The major problem lies at quarterback, where Trent Green was traded to Miami, leaving incumbent 11-year vet Damon Huard to battle second-year man Brodie Croyle for the starting job. Despite practically having the position handed to him on a platter, Croyle has all but attempted to give the job away during training camp, looking at best average and at worst atrocious in the preseason. And oh yeah, the defense. The unit that ranked 15th a year ago lost Sammy Knight and Lenny Walls, a definite hit for the secondary. Patrick Surtain and Ty Law are getting up there in age, and Surtain in particular has looked it. But most importantly, they have little to no depth if those guys go down. The linebacking core should be fine with the additions of Donnie Edwards and Nap Harris to go along with Derrick Johnson, but the defensive line is a mess outside of Tamba Hali. Rookie Tank Tyler will have to step up.

Wide receiver is another trouble spot. Eddie Kennison is in his 12th year in the league, and rookie Dwayne Bowe held out during camp. He’ll need to contribute quickly because outside of Kennison and Samie Parker, there’s no dependable receiver (Tony Gonzalez notwithstanding) to throw to.

Best case: LJ stays upright and motivated, Huard guts out some wins and the defense is average.
Worst case: Offensive line crumbles, cornerback tandem plays its age
The verdict: 4-12, last place in the AFC West

31. Cleveland Browns

Eight years after their reintroduction to the NFL, the Browns might finally be headed in the right direction. But they won’t be getting there yet. For the first time since they came back, the front office used a pick on an offensive tackle before the third round, nabbing Joe Thomas with the third overall pick. Nineteen picks later, they traded back into the first round to draft a quarterback worthy of Thomas’ protection, Brady Quinn.

Unfortunately for the Browns, they’re in the right train but they’re headed down the wrong track. They are the only team in football that is far and away the worst team in their division. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati all have at least a legitimate shot of making the playoffs, something even the most die-hard brown and orange fan would be sluggish to admit. The other problem is their coach – Romeo Crennel is a fine coordinator but there are some serious issues with him as a head man. From the way he’s handled the quarterback derby in the preseason – which has more than somewhat resembled the four ugliest girls from high school vying for the homecoming crown – to the seemingly bizarre lack of communication he seems to have with, well, anyone on the sidelines, Crennel finds himself on the hot seat. And after the forgettable tenures of Chris Palmer and Butch Davis, this is a franchise that needs some stability at the top.

Jamal Lewis has looked good since coming over from Baltimore in the offseason. Eric Steinbach will team with Thomas and possibly, at some point, the injured LeCharles Bentley to give the Browns an actual stable wall in front of whoever lines up under center. At least for the first few weeks that will be Charlie Frye, but the bet here is that by the time the team’s bye week rolls around in Week 7, Quinn will be the guy Crennel turns to.

The defense is at least average and the offense features some playmakers who simply need someone to deliver them the football (Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, this means you), but in this division, this season, it’s not going to be pretty for a team that will sooner rather than later be breaking in a rookie quarterback.

Best case: Quinn forces his way into the lineup and develops a rapport with Edwards and Winslow, Lewis finds his old form
Worst case: Crennel refuses to settle on a starting QB well into the season, the defense wilts from the realization they can’t allow more than 14 points and expect to win
The verdict: 4-12, last place in the AFC North, and due to the trade for Quinn they'll send their first-rounder to Dallas

30. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders accomplished what I like to call addition by demolition in the offseason. Art Shell is no longer coaching the team. That alone is good for probably three wins. Sure, they hired Lane Kiffin, who, at 32, is younger than eight of his players. But Kiffin has good NFL bloodlines (father Monte is the Bucs’ defensive coordinator), and, being the youngest coach in the history of the league, he’ll certainly be out to prove his worth. Randy Moss was dealt across the country to New England, and considering he played in Oakland like he was a shell of his former unstoppable self and was publicly unhappy (however understandable that may be), that can’t really hurt either.

Fumble-prone Aaron Brooks is also long gone, and to replace him, the Raiders drafted quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick in the draft. Only thing is, Russell is still unsigned and having missed all of training camp and the preseason, his year is likely shot if and when he does sign.

It would be nice if Robert Gallery morphed into something other than a turnstile. The former second overall pick in 2004 has struggled mightily at left tackle since his rookie season. He’s headed back to right tackle, where he dabbled early in his career, and his stepping up is critical for a line that has some pretty decent talent for which to block. LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes (once he returns from his four-game, substance-abuse suspension) are a nice one-two tandem at tailback, and rookie Michael Bush could be a fine goal-line presence in time.

Daunte Culpepper looks to be the starter at quarterback as the preseason closes, which could be either great or terrible, depending on which version of himself he plans on channeling for the upcoming season: 2003-2004 Daunte, who lit up the league with 64 touchdown passes, or 2005-2006 Daunte, who was injured and ineffective with the Vikings and Dolphins. The defense, one of the league’s better units a year ago, returns mostly intact, and despite reason for optimism on the other side of the ball, they’ll need to dominate in order for the Raiders to approach seven wins.

Best case: Culpepper of old returns, Jerry Porter makes up for the absence of Moss, former busts Travis Taylor and Mike Williams combine with Porter to give Daunte lots of big targets
Worst case: Defense can’t repeat last year’s excellence, Culpepper channels his inner Aaron Brooks, Kiffin loses the players’ attention early
The verdict: 5-11, third in the AFC West

29. New York Giants

What can the Giants be doing here? They made the playoffs last season and nearly beat the Eagles in the Wild Card round? Two big reasons: Tiki Barber’s retirement (and conversely, the question marks surrounding his replacement Brandon Jacobs), and the growing reputation quarterback Eli Manning seems to be gaining as a poor leader in the huddle.

Barber was one of the league’s best and most versatile backs for the last five seasons of his career. Jacobs is a hulking 6’4”, 264 pound back who runs upright and lacks the all-around game that Barber brought to the team. Much like a three-point specialist in basketball, Jacobs is good at what he does, in this case, pounding the clock and dragging defenders in goal-line situations, but when he’s getting the ball 25 times a game, things could well be a different story.

The more pressing concern, though, is Manning’s struggles. He posted decent stats a year ago but often looked lost and frustrated. No one will mistake Eli for his brother as a quarterback, but more important is their difference in demeanor. Peyton is fiery and will take the blame if he feels he screwed up yet at the same time isn’t afraid to let it be known when one of his teammates failed him. Eli appears timid and uninterested in being a leader on the field. With the pressures of New York and some outspoken teammates still around (Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey to name a few), one has to wonder whether Eli will progress.

Combine those elements with Tom Coughlin’s lame-duck status as head coach (the players have lost any respect they might have had for him) along with the fact the Giants play in a strong division) and you have trouble brewing. On paper the Giants might look like an 8-8 or 9-7 team, but with a defense that was 25th overall in the league last year and a lack of stable leadership on the field and on the sidelines, this is a team that could be headed for a swift, ugly decline.

Best case: Eli lets his arm do the talking, Jacobs shows he’s a bruising, upright runner a la Eddie George and the offense clicks into a balanced attack
Worst case: Coughlin further loses the team, Manning continues to work on his verbal jousting abilities with current or former teammates, the defense gives up as many passing yards as they did last year
The verdict: 5-11, last place in the NFC East

28. Houston Texans

Perhaps never has one seemingly insignificant loss in the middle of a season so aided a player’s status as Matt Schaub’s performance on Oct. 9, 2005, against the Patriots. With Michael Vick injured, Schaub threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against the defending Super Bowl champs, and despite losing 31-28 (and being relegated to the bench a week later when Vick returned), the Schaub mythos was created. It took another season-and-a-half before the Falcons finally submitted to letting him go – a move that, oh, they might be regretting given their current situation at the position – but he has given new hope to a franchise that tired of seeing David Carr lying at the bottom of a pile of opponents.

But should this still-fledgling franchise be so excited over a quarterback who has made just one start of note in his three-year career? Probably not. And considering hometown boy Vince Young could be under center for the Texans (or at the very least, Schaub could be handing off to Reggie Bush), and you have to wonder how fast fans will turn on Schaub when he is off.

Amobi Okoye was a nice pick in the first round, and the Texans might eventually have themselves the makings of a real, live defensive line along with Mario Williams. DeMeco Ryans had a wonderful rookie year at linebacker, and cornerback Dunta Robinson is one of the best players few fans have heard of.

It’s still going to take this team time though. They are still two drafts away from being able to mount a serious contender, and that may be optimistic given the fact that they share a division with Indianapolis and perennial playoff contender Jacksonville. The wide receiving corps particularly needs work; after All-Pro Andre Johnson, the other wideouts would struggle to play extras in The Longest Yard. Rookie Jacoby Jones, however, has apparently been lighting up camp, so hope may be on the horizon.

Best case: Schaub, a rookie in many ways, has many more Patriot-like performances, Okoye and Williams create havoc up front, Johnson leads the league in catches again
Worst case: Schaub stays upright less often than a Real Madrid midfielder, Ahman Green’s best days are behind him, spotty defense doesn’t make plays
The verdict: 5-11, last place in the AFC South

Cavs-Wizards Game 1 running diary

We’re coming to you LIVE from the chowder-stained couch inside an apartment that desperately needs to be cleaned to bring you a running diary of Cavaliers-Wizards Game 1, live from The Q in Cleveland.

12:32: TNT opens its coverage with its second-to-none studio show. Magic says the Wizards have no chance. Barkley truthfully says the Wizards have a coaching edge but that’s it. Kenny predicts a Cavaliers sweep.

12:36: The triple-D crew of Matt Devlin and John Thompson are on hand in Cleveland. I think Devlin may have attended Ball State. Heck, he may be this guy.

12:37: Z shoots an airball on the opening possession, followed by a Jamison 15-footer to give Washington the lead, 2-0.

12:39: Gooden with his fourth point to tie it at 4. We were also just informed that renowned sideline reporter Marty Snider is in the building. Wasn’t she the lead singer from KISS?

12:40: A LeBron backdoor cut for a layup followed by a Pavlovic three. Throw in a reverse layup for Bron-Bron and it’s 11-4 Cleveland.

12:41: Timeout, Wizards. Eddie Jordan will try to determine whether his mustache can extend any further over his mouth during the break.

12:43: Coming back from commercial, TNT opts for a shot of cars driving down a random street in Cleveland. Guess they’re saving the obligatory shot of the Rock ‘N’ Roll Hall of Fame for the next break.

12:44: Jarvis Hayes hits a 3-pointer plus a ridiculous foul on LeBron. Clearly, the Messiah still needs to work on his defense.

12:46: Jamison drives inside and LeBron takes a Varejao-inspired offensive foul. Cavaliers broadcaster Fred McLeod is certainly happy as he looks to his “unofficial” offensive foul stats to realize that’s the first one LeBron has ever taken.

12:47: Larry Hughes hits a deep two as the shot-clock expires. Good sign. 17-10 Cavaliers.

12:48: DeShawn Stevenson takes a terrible turn-around jumper and Hughes, of course, fouls him. Good to see Mike Brown reminded the Cavs to never foul the jump shooter before today’s tilt.

12:49: Our first shot of an injured Gilbert Arenas in his suit on the sideline. Hibachi!

12:50: Ilgauskas clangs another open look off the rim. Good to see the ’05-’06 playoff version of Z decided to show up.

12:51: Pavlovic with another lay-in, following his own miss. 19-13 Cavs. Devlin sends it to the third member of our broadcast team, who, to my surprise, is a man. He chimes in with something about Pavlovic being from Serbia. I think.

12:52: Long pass to LeBron on the sideline and a no-look touch pass under the hoop to Varejao for a layup. 21-14 Cavs.

12:53: Soft rims as Gooden throws in a hook that hit every part of the hoop. 23-16. Another commercial as TNT tries to determine the sex of Marty Snider.

A quick Google search of big Marty reveals he’s the NASCAR pit reporter for TNT and NBC. So he obviously knows what’s he’s talking about. At no point in his bio do I see the word “basketball.” “NASCAR” appears four times.

12:55: Today’s injury report brought to you by Tyler Perry’s new comedy, House of Payne. Let me clean up the coffee that just came spewing out of my nose. Remember that TNT’s motto is “We Know Drama,” not “We Know Comedy.”

12:57: LeBron gets an and-1 thanks to the NBA rule that if you foul a guy and he completes a triple axle, double toe-loop, the basket still counts. Even makes the free throw to boot.

12:58: Jamison with a deep jumper. 26-20 Cleveland. Eric Snow is in the game. Hide the women and children.

12:59: NASCAR Marty tells us Caron Butler is scheduled to have his cast removed Tuesday morning and would like to play in Game 3. Really? I thought he was out for the entire series, but clearly, the Pit Boss knows best.

1:00: Eric Snow unloads his two-handed set shot after Varjeao takes five steps before a pass. It misses. Badly.

1:01: Varjeao misses two free throws. Wizards miss at the other end, followed by Snow unleashing a half-court shot at the buzzer. It comes closer than his previous jumper from 15 feet. 27-20 Cavaliers after one. Thompson tells us he wouldn’t feel too bad if he’s the Wizards. Fortunately, for the sanctity of the league, he isn’t the Wizards.

1:04: Mike Brown cleans his glasses on the sideline. At least they match his suit.

1:05: Snow tries a Jason Kidd-like bounce pass through three people on the move. J Kidd, he’s not.

1:06: Thompson criticizes the Cavs’ lack of oomph. Snow narrowly makes a layup. Cleveland-killer Darius Songalia knock down a jumper. 29-22.

1:07: Pit Boy tells us Eddie Jordan wants to see three passes before a shot. They just made one pass to Jamison and scored regardless. Challenge to authority?

1:08: Hughes continues to build a house for charity with his fourth brick of the night. Then, after reading that last sentence, gets an and-1 following a Wizards’ miss. Even makes the free throw!

1:09: Jamison answers with an and-1 of his own. He has nine points. Apparently Mike Brown’s gameplan to contain the rarely used Andray Blatche was misguided. 34-27.

1:10: LeBron jacks up his first jumper with a man right in his face. Not a good shot. Jamison knocks one down to cut the lead to five.

1:11: Horrible pass to Varejao winds up in Z’s hands for an uncontested layup. Jamison rims out a three to finally cool off.

1:12: Ira Newble’s wide open three has the arc of a poorly designed trick billiards shot. Needless to say, it doesn’t go in.

1:13: There’s a new T-Mobile spot with Dwyane Wade and Barkley. This is the second time I’ve seen it. Let’s just say it’s not nearly as amusing as the original one.

1:14: Our first live shot of Captain NASCAR. May want to pay the electric bill, Marty. Picking out ties in the dark isn’t good for anyone.

1:15: Blatche makes an appearance! Mike Brown rejoices. He hoists up a baseline 20-footer that barely draws iron, followed by Thompson denouncing it as a bad shot.

1:16: Varejao grabs his seventh rebound and bounces in the first free throw. 37-29 Cleveland. TNT’s graphic tells us his role is “Team Energizer Bunny.” TNT - We Know Drama.

1:18: LeBron grazes the rim on a three. Donyell Marshall reminds Mike Brown of the naked pictures of the coach he has in his locker and is immediately inserted in the game.

1:20: Back from commercial with, what else, the Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall of Fame! Coming up next, the story of how the Cuyahoga River battled through adversity and made a name for itself even after catching on fire.

1:21: Jamison knocks down two free throws to bring the Wizards within six. Jamison has 63 points.

1:22: Uninspired pass by Hughes goes off Pavlovic out of bound. Michael Ruffin outhustles three Cavaliers to a loose ball.

1:23: Beautiful swing pass by LeBron finds Marshall, who knocks down an open three. Good to see Donyell channeling 2003 early on here.

1:24: LeBron misses a horrific fadeaway as the shot clock expires, followed by Devlin screaming “and a shot-clock violation, by the WASHINGTON WIZARDS!” We’ll see if Devlin makes it out of the locker room for the second half.

1:25: Stevenson hits a three. Down to four, 40-36.

1:26: Cavs let Daniels pass go, collect $200, and make a layup without as much as looking at him. 42-38. Timeout on the floor.

A closer look at the box score reveals Jamison is only 6-for-15 from the floor. Not sure what game those nine misses were from, but OK.

1:28: Back to the original T-Mobile Wade/Barkley commercial. “I’m sorry, is this your DAD?!?” That one never gets old. The look on Barkley’s face is worth a million words. Speaking of Sir Charles, we’re two-and-a half basketball minutes away from hearing him rip into the Cavs. As usual, he’ll be right.

1:30: Noted pick-pocket Pavlovic with a steal, followed by Larry Hughes sending a cross between a chest pass an an ally-oop to no one in particular. Turnover Cavs.

1:31: Sideline Marty tells us the Cavs’ bench looks lethargic while the Wizards bench is constantly talking to each other. A shot of both benches reveal seven players on each who look like they’d rather be sleeping.

1:32: Hughes nails a prayer at the end of the shot clock, followed by a hideous-looking runner from Jamison. 45-40. Crowd growing restless.

1:33: Pavlovic with a god-awful shot that allows the Wizards to get the last shot. Jamison at his season average of 19. LeBron scoreless in the quarter. 45-41.

1:34: Thompson tells us that LeBron needs to recognize this is the “dog-gone” playoffs. Bobby Bowden says “dad gummite,” he’s right.

1:35: Washington misses, followed by a rushed three from Hughes at the end of the half that hits nothing but the net. The first hint of emotion from the Cavs as they walk off the floor. 48-41 Cavaliers.

1:37: A clearly overwhelmed Marty Snider stumbles over himself as he interviews LeBron before kicking it to no one in particular in the studio. Barkley tells him “you’re fired, Marty!” High comedy.

1:38: Magic openly questions the Cavs’ strategy. Why not double Jamison, he says. Umm, because Andray Blatche is out there? Duh, Magic.

1:39: Take the roof off the TNT studio and Kenny’s suit would be visible from space.

1:40: Barkley says he’s “very disappointed” in the Cavs’ first half. He also mentions how New Jersey must be drooling after watching the Cavs’ play right now. Did I miss where the Raptors-Nets series was a single elimination game?

The TNT crew really can’t be topped. Magic is the Randy Jackson of the trio in size and in voice. He’ll start off with a mild criticism, followed by Kenny babbling like Paula Abdul until he gets cut off by Barkley, who pulls no punches. He attacks the subject like Simon Cowell, then EJ, acting as a straight Ryan Seacrest, throws it to commercial. Gotta love the playoffs.

1:56: Back for the second half. Pit boy tells us Eddie Jordan was concerned about Cleveland’s offensive rebounding while Mike Brown told the Cavs to keep it to X’s and O’s. I have no idea what that means, but since Brown is easily the worst coach in the league from and X’s and O’s standpoint, I don’t think that bodes well.

1:57: Thompson becomes the 1,352nd member of the TNT crew today to bemoan the Cavaliers’ lack of a point guard. TNT – We Know Obvious.

1:58: Pavlovic called for a carry. Apparently the refs missed the 29 Dwyane Wade carries that weren’t whistled yesterday.

1:59: Hughes knocks down another jumper to give him 14 points. 52-43 Cavs. Hayes answers with a hook shot to cut it back to seven.

2:00: Thompson critiques the lack of a “fluid flow” to the Cavs’ offense. Uh-huh.

2:01: Hayes hits a three, 52-48. A terrible Cavs’ possession leads to a foul on Pavlovic at the other end. Hayes hits two at the line to cut the lead to two.

2:02: Paging LeBron James. Please come to the white courtesy phone. James picks up and gets fouled before knocking down two free throws. Jamison hits a jumper at the other end to give him 23. Don’t want to double team that guy. Gooden can guard him by himself.

2:03: LeBron makes a runner. LeBron on the ground in pain. Appears to have come down on Etan Thomas’ ankle after the shot and turned it pretty badly. Might as well just end this series now and give the Nets-Raptors winner a free pass to the conference finals.

2:06: James still in the game. Bricks the free throw. I still don’t know how Thomas got called for a foul for LeBron landing on his foot, but whatever.

2:07: Gooden with a turnaround jumper to give the Cavs a 58-52 lead.

2:08: Hayes with a runner. 58-54. No one saw the Cavs sleepwalking through this series. NO ONE.

2:10: The Cavs get a steal that leads to, GASP!, a fast-break basket and a foul. Hughes nails the free throw. Good to see him playing well offensively for once. 63-54 Cavs.

2:12: Gooden knocks down an 18-footer and the lead is double digits. Starting tonight, this game will be on the shelves at Target next to “soothing sounds of the jungle” as tools to help the sleep-deprived.

2:15: Four straight Wizards points out of the timeout. Must be nice to have a coach who talks strategy during timeouts.

2:17: Hughes hits another shot followed by a LeBron steal, foul around the free-throw line, and the ensuing continuation that results in a layup. Nails the free throw.

2:18: Someone named Roger Mason Jr. comes in the game and immediately hits a three. Hughes bounces back with a front-rim jumper that bounces in. 72-61.

2:19: Questionable officiating leads to Songalia at the line. Pavlovic, who wasn’t in the same area code as Songalia, is called for his fourth. 72-63.

2:20: Gooden throws a 93 MPH pass to Hughes, who is flashing into the paint two feet away from him. The patch of hair on the back of his head is finally weighing Gooden down.

2:21: Marshall reappears after hanging out on a milk carton since the early second quarter. Andray Blatche also enters the game. Mike Brown immediately goes to a triangle-and-two defense. The triangle will cover Blatche.

2:22: Jamison misses two free throws. Cavs with a chance to open up some serious distance in the last minute-and-a-half of the quarter.

2:23: Hughes called for a carry. Devlin mentions how that call has been a “point of emphasis” over the last few years in the league. A point of emphasis to completely ignore it?

2:24: James lets a free throw leave his hand, followed by yelling “aww, you asshole” at the ball as soon as he realizes it’s off line. Nails the second. 74-63.

2:25: Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are separated by three seats on the Wizards’ bench. Probably should be five seats and a restraining order. If the Wizards could somehow acquire Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest and Ron Artest’s dogs in the offseason, BET’s next reality show would be in the works.

2:26: Marshall sends up yet another contested three, giving the Wizards the last possession of the quarter. Daniels hits a deep two to cut the lead to seven. Varejao throws a 65-footer off the shot clock. End of three with your score: the Globetrotters 74 and the Washington Generals 67.

2:30: The fourth starts with Thompson saying the Wizards are in a position Eddie Jordan wants to be in. JT will be starring in “Being Eddie Jordan” next fall on TNT. TNT – We Know Reality TV.

2:31: Hughes hits another shot, giving him 23 points. 76-67. I think this guy was supposed to be the second option the Cavs are paying $60 million to.

2:33: James gets a steal, throws a pass to Hughes at midcourt that had no chance of getting to him, and Roger Mason Jr. takes the ball to the hoop for a bucket and a foul from Z. Z bricks a jumper at the other end and has been nonexistent to say the least in this one. 76-70.

2:34: Varejao gets called for an offensive foul. It’s called a taste of your own medicine, Andy.

2:35: The Cavs have a four-on-two that ends with Hughes airballing a 13-foot jumper, Z getting the rebound and getting fouled. THAT’S the guard that Cavs are paying $60 million to. Z’s free throws give the Cavs a 78-70 lead.

2:36: Hughes with two free throws to put the Cavs up 10. The Cavs double Jamison (GASP!) and he throws up a horrendous shot off the glass. No one makes quicker adjustments than Mike Brown. Let the record show that throwing two men at the Wizards’ best player took slightly over 39 minutes of game action. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2006-07 NBA Coach of the Year.

2:41: The Wizards throw an inbounds pass to halfcourt to a streaking Larry Hughes. Hughes is everywhere. Two at the line give him 27 for the afternoon.

2:42: Z with some good D on Etan Thomas, forcing Thomas to throw the ball off his own leg out of bounds.

2:43: LeBron streaks into the lane with a kick pass to a (believe it or not) wide-open Eric Snow! Snow clangs the jumper but Z gets the rebound. Songalia picks up his 11th foul, sending Z to the line.

2:44: The officials wipe off the basketball as we see our first shot of David Wesley in a suit. The underside of the backboard is safe, at least for today.

2:45: Jamison nails a three to cut the lead to 83-73. 28 for ‘Twan.

2:46: Ilgauskas with a confidence-inspiring 18-footer. Cavs back up 12. Songalia sends up an air-ball fadeaway three as the clock expires. Matt Devlin tries to remember which team the violation is on.

2:47: Hughes gets caught up in the air and turns the ball over, leading to a runout. Daniels takes one step from halfcourt to the basket, but gets to the free throw line regardless. 85-74.

2:48: LeBron gets the Eric Snow treatment. Wide open for a three on the right wing that isn’t even close. A Jamison miss leads to a Z post-up in the paint (what an idea!) and he easily hooks one in for a 13-point lead. As usual, since it work once, the Cavs won’t go back to it. A tried and true Mike Brown strategy – if it’s effective once, they might eventually catch on, so NEVER try it twice.

2:50: TNT returns from a commercial with a shot of the giant LeBron “We are all witnesses” billboard on the side of a downtown building. Sadly, probably the second most-recognizable landmark in the city. TNT – We Know Billboards.

2:51: Hayes hoists up a brutal fadeaway, and the Cavs get the ball back into Z in the post!!! Since he’s six inches taller than the man guarding him, he gets fouled. Songalia picks up his 15th, and the league decides that’s enough. Interesting – getting the ball to your best post scorer against a team that has no inside presence may help you take control of the game. Someone tell Mike Brown to never employ that again.

2:53: Eric Snow makes a layup after gathering a pass that nearly bounces off his head. 91-76 Cleveland. Stevenson hits a three to cut it back to 12.

2:55: Another sideline report from Pit Road where the mood of the benches is discussed. Now the Cleveland bench is the one that’s full of chatter. Shots of both benches show, once again, no one speaking on either end.

2:57: LeBron with a falling-out-of-bounds, 26-foot three attempt. Would have been a good pass to Z had the shot clock not expired.

2:58: LeBron straight to the hole for an easy layup. 95-80 Cleveland. Washington looks tired.

3:01: The local “Scratch & Dent World” commercial runs for the 6,327th time today, featuring a girl showing off washers and dryers wearing a hideous late-70s era plaid skirt and a giant knee brace. Nothing sells washers and dryers like an unattractive woman in a knee brace.

3:02: Z throws one in with one second left on the shot clock to give the Cavs a 97-80 lead. He’s been big since the middle of the third when Brown realized he was still a part of the team.

3:03: Does the Chalupa guarantee run through the playoffs? Crowd seems a bit antsy, so perhaps it does. John Thompson feels the Wizards have a lot of positives to take from this game. He’ll let you know what one of those is as soon as he makes it up.

3:05: Our first plug for “The Closer,” returning in June, around the time the NBA playoffs will be winding down the second round. TNT – We Know Drama!

3:06: Daniel Gibson (finally) gets in the game and launches a jumper off the front of the rim. Eric Snow beams with pride on the bench.

3:07: Andray Blatche with a big bucket to cut the lead to 97-82. Gibson dribbles out the clock and the Cleveland crowd is awakened from its slumber and told to go home. No chalupas tonight.

3:08: Marty Snider asks Larry Hughes about the blown tire he suffered on the turn on Lap 79. Hughes credits his pit crew for keeping him in the race.

3:11: Hoping for some analysis from the TNT studio crew, we’re instead sent to “World’s Worst Drivers 2: Caught on Tape,” joined in progress. I hate to think what we might have missed during those first 11 minutes. TNT – We Know Voyeurism!

Upsets? UPSETS?!?!

It’s NBA playoff time again, and the eight opening matchups look better on paper than the usual first-round fodder. Perhaps it’s the fact that the upset-mad world of March Madness is fresh in everyone’s mind, but it seems all those around the NBA periphery want to discuss is who the “Cinderella” of the playoffs will be. News flash folks: this ain’t college hoops. VCU would’ve gone 0-82 against an NBA schedule.

Even if the playoffs were a one-and-done deal like the NCAA Tournament, major upsets would be rare. With the best-of-five in the first round (which existed from 1984 until 2002), they were slightly more common, but with the current best-of-seven sets, they’re damn near impossible to come by.

Since the league expanded to that format in the first round, four teams who have had worse regular season records that their opponent have won series in the conference quarterfinals. Three of those teams finished one, one and two games, respectively, behind the opponent they bested in the first round (the ’03 Lakers over the Timberwolves, the ’05 Pacers over the Celtics and the ’05 Wizards over the Bulls). While the Pacers, in that aforementioned matchup with Boston, were actually one game worse during the regular season, two other six seeds won first-round matchups over that period, but they both had better regular season records, and thus, home-court advantage, over the three seeds they faced in round one.

As evidenced by this, due to the NBA’s ass-backwards playoff seeding and its refusal to re-seed teams after the first round, true upsets aren’t given much of a chance to happen, and thanks to a best-of-seven that virtually guarantees the better team will win, they almost never exist. The only series that could have been classified as a mild upset in the past four years existed when the 44-38 Boston Celtics topped the 48-34 Indiana Pacers in the first round. Boston then was swept by Detroit in the conference semifinals.

Is there any chance of a first-round upset this year? Let’s examine.

Eastern Conference

1) Detroit vs. 8) Orlando
Win differential: 13

Detroit swept the season series, 4-0. Detroit has been to at least the conference finals for four straight years. If Chauncey Billups isn’t scoring, Rip Hamilton will. If Hamilton isn’t, Rasheed Wallace will. A team’s leading perimeter scorer will have to deal with Tayshaun Prince. Except, in this case, the Magic have no one who would be mistaken with an effective slasher/perimeter scorer, so Prince can likely rest up for Dwyane Wade or Luol Deng in Round Two.

Odds of upset: Worse than odds of Pauly Shore returning to Hollywood with a box-office smash. Detroit in four.

2) Cleveland vs. 7) Washington
Win differential: 9

The Cavaliers won the season series, 2-1. This one takes on a whole different dynamic due to the likely season-ending injuries to the Wizards’ two best players, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. The two teams met in the first-round last year in a tightly contested series that went six games and featured three one-point finishes. Antawn Jamison can give Cleveland fits, but no one else on the Wizards is capable of scoring consistently. The Cavaliers often lack mental focus (along with a competent coach), so that will likely cost them one game.

Odds of upset: On par with the odds of “Saturday Night Live” being funny again in the near future. Cleveland in five.

3) Toronto vs. 6) New Jersey
Win differential: 6

Easily the best chance for an “upset” since the expansion to the best-of-seven in the first round. A veteran New Jersey team that has playoff experience but faced major injuries during the season. An untested Toronto team that came out of nowhere to win a truly terrible division, but did so in convincing fashion. The Raptors are a better team but New Jersey has better individual scorers, despite its lack of a post presence. Chris Bosh has to show he can carry a team in the playoffs because the backcourt edge is decidedly in favor of New Jersey.

Odds of upset: Up there with the odds of Drew Barrymore finding herself as the lead in a romantic comedy in the next six months. This one’s a toss up, but Toronto will win in seven.

4) Miami vs. 5) Chicago
Win differential: 5 (in favor of Chicago)

So the Bulls won five more games than the Heat, yet they’re placed as the five seed even though they do have home-court advantage. Yep, the NBA cares all right. This, more than anything, tells you how significant seeding is in the NBA playoffs. Chicago’s loss to New Jersey on the last day of the regular season ensured these two teams would face each other, costing the Bulls a matchup with injury-riddled Washington and locking Miami into a series against a team they can’t seem to beat. Chicago relies almost entirely on its outside shooting, while Miami still has the Big Diesel patrolling the paint. The Bulls have Miami’s number, but Miami has Wade, who, even at 75 percent is better than what Chicago has to offer.

Odds of upset: Is this series an upset either way? Wade is hurt, the Bulls have home-court and a better record, so it’s not an upset for Chicago. And on the other side, the Heat are the defending champions and played well while Wade was down. Shaq appears primed for a playoff run, so it’s not an upset for Miami. Generally if a team has the two most dominant players in a series, I’m taking that team. Miami in six.

Western Conference

1) Dallas vs. 8) Golden State
Win differential: An alarming 25

No match, right? Well, despite the Grand Canyon-like gap between these team’s regular season records, the Warriors swept the season series, 3-0. That said, one of those wins was during the last week of the season with Dallas resting its starters. Golden State has been on fire since the All-Star break, but Dallas has been on a tear since the second week in November. Don Nelson knows Dallas’ personnel, but most marginal major league pitchers know the Yankees’ lineup, too. After last season’s Finals’ collapse against Miami, the regular season was just a training ground for the Mavericks. They will be focused.

Odds of upset: Around the same as Mark Cuban looking good with a goatee. Dallas in five.

2) Phoenix vs. 7) Los Angeles Lakers
Win differential: 19

Well, the Lakers have given Phoenix fits in recent years and should have knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago when the seeding was the same. That, however, was a better Lakers team and a clearly inferior Suns team minus Amare Stoudemire. Kobe could average 55 and the Lakers could get swept. With that said, if Colonel Jackson can find a way to slow the pace of this series, it could be interesting. If Mike D’Antoni gets into the track meet tempo he’d like to see, it’ll be over quick.

Odds of upset: Something close to Keanu Reeves and Best Actor appearing in the same sentence. Phoenix in six.

3) San Antonio vs. 6) Denver
Win differential: 13

Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. A pairing that made no sense in December and still doesn’t. But they have won 10 of their last 11 and they two are finally looking like they might be able to co-exist in that Rocky Mountain air. But Denver’s defense has more holes than a Michael Bay plot and our two aforementioned offensive studs lead the charge in showing no interest on that end of the floor. San Antonio runs about as disciplined an offense as you’ll find in the league, and the Spurs are as experienced a group as you’ll find in crunch-time situations.

Odds of upset: Same as Joey Crawford and Tim Duncan sharing a milkshake with two straws. San Antonio in five.

4) Houston vs. 5) Utah
Win differential: 1

These two were battling it out for home-court advantage until the last few days of the regular season. Houston is truly the darkhorse of these playoffs. They have the one-two punch to give Dallas and Phoenix fits or they could just as easily succumb to Utah in the first round. This won’t be the prettiest series to watch. It will be physical and the pace will be nearly entirely a half-court game rather than the up-and-down tempo you’ll likely find in the other Western Conference matchups. Tracy McGrady has never won a first-round series, but he’s ready to be held accountable this time. He will take over if needed. And Yao has been busy developing a bit of a nasty streak. Don’t want to piss the 7’6” man off. Much like the other 4-5 matchup, I’ll take the team with the two best players 10 times out of 10.

Odds of upset: Again, is this much of an upset either way? Utah lacks the playoff experience, but Houston (and McGrady in particular) has some postseason demons to exorcise. The Rockets are better, but not by much. Houston in seven.


Bottom line: New Jersey has a good shot at Toronto and the 4-5 series could go either way. But the only real upsets will be if either of the top two in the East or any of the top three in the West go down in the first round. Given the nature of the bottom two seeds in the East and the strength of the top three out West, these would truly be monumental upsets, something the NBA playoffs haven’t seen since Clinton was in office.

March to Madness

Well, we’re officially immersed in championship week, which is basically an excuse for conferences to sell sponsorships and give bubble teams epileptic seizures for 10 consecutive days. All in all, the week tells us less about the top-enders, the teams that have a shot to star in the lead-in to “One Shining Moment,” and more about those underachievers who may be getting hot enough at the right time to deliver an early-round upset once the Big Dance begins.

Since it’s frivolous to spend time separating the Purdues and Drexels and Kansas States of the world from each other, let’s step behind the line and tackle two big questions: 1) Who’s good enough to reach the Final Four? And 2) Who can actually win the whole thing on Monday night in the ATL as Jim Nantz pretends to be interested in 19-year-old hoopsters while secretly wondering when the next bus leaves for Augusta. I can see it now … “the under-eight timeout – a tradition unlike any other!” Of course, it’ll be a three-man booth for the Final Four this year, with Nantz and the tag team of Billy Packer’s lips and Mike Krzyzewski’s ass. But back to the topic at hand.

The NCAA Tournament comes down to one basic issue: what team can win six consecutive games? There are plenty of talented teams out there every year, but few have the cohesion necessary to put together six in a row. So with that, let’s start with the list of teams that are capable of getting out of their region under the right circumstances, and work our way up to the exclusive list of squads that can cut down the nets at the Georgia Dome. The next four teams will likely be seeded between four and six, but have what it takes to get to Atlanta.

Can weasel their way to the Final Four but stabbed too many backs along the way (and possibly pissed off Jeff Probst) to win it all:

Marquette

Why they’re ATL-bound: Solid guard play wins you games in March, right? The Golden Eagles (or whatever they’re going by these days) have one of the nation’s best leading men in Dominic James, and Jerel McNeal was the Big East’s defensive player of the year. McNeal is nursing a thumb injury but is expected back by the Big Dance if not sooner. Most importantly, Marquette has one of the nation’s best coaches in Tom Crean, a guy who may not always have the more talented team, but more often than not will come away with a win.

Why they’re out like Neil Patrick Harris: Free-throw shooting. Marquette knocks ’em down at a whopping 66%, and you just know that’s gonna come back to get them at some point. James is even worse, than the team average, at around 64%. And while they have a great backcourt, they don’t get a lot out of their big guys. Ousmane Barro is their best big, and he’s not exactly Greg Oden. Oh, and Dwyane Wade left school in 2003.

Gettin’ outta town with a W: Texas Tech, @ Duke, @ Pitt, Pitt
How’d they choke that one away?: North Dakota State

Maryland

Why they’re ATL-bound: They’re one of the hottest teams in the country, with seven wins in a row in the best conference in the country. D.J. Strawberry is finally turning into the stud people thought he could be as a freshman. They hit nearly 40% of their 3-point attempts, and while Strawberry leads them in scoring, they have five guys averaging double figures. And nobody plays 30 minutes a night outside of Strawberry, so they should be fresh. That Gary Williams guy can coach a bit, too – despite winning a National Championship in the last five years, this may be his best coaching job after a 1-4 start in the ACC.

Why they’re out like Melissa Ethridge: Turnovers. Maryland’s penchant for an up-tempo game isn’t always beneficial. The Terps give the ball away 16 times a game on average, tops (or bottoms) in the ACC. And while they’re battled-tested against ACC foes, their non-conference schedule left a bit to be desired.

Gettin’ outta town with a W: Duke, @ Duke, North Carolina, @ Illinois
How’d they choke that one away?: Miami

Oregon

Why they’re ATL-bound: The Ducks have that Arizona-in-1997 look about them. Playing the role of Miles Simon, the underappreciated senior who leads the team in scoring, Aaron Brooks. The part of Mike Bibby will be played by 5-foot-6 freshman Tajuan Porter, who inexplicably leads the team in three-pointers and clutch shooting. Malik Hairston will be posing as Jason Terry, highly touted out of high school, struggling to find his way while contributing in his first three years, then (next year) breaking out to be a lottery pick. Beyond those striking similarities, they take care of the basketball and are in the top 10 in the country in free-throw percentage.

Why they’re out like T.R. Knight: Also, like those ’Cats from a decade ago, they’re not exactly the most consistent bunch out there. Started out the season 18-1, 6-1 in the Pac-10, then dropped five of six conference games at one point. And more importantly, no one of this junior- and senior-laden group has played in the tournament before, so how they react when they’re facing a hungry 11- or 12-seed in the first round is anyone’s guess. Played a horrendous non-conference slate outside of one big win, that being…

Gettin’ outta town with a W: @ Georgetown, UCLA, Wazzou, @ Wazzou
How’d they choke that one away?: @ Cal

Notre Dame

Why they’re ATL-bound: They shoot the ball well and, believe it or not, shooting the ball well typically is key in March. Four regulars shoot 40% from downtown and two other bench guys that play sparingly can knock one down if called upon. The top five scorers are all good free throw shooters and Russell Carter has developed into a legit go-to presence in his senior season. Won six in a row before falling in a heartbreaker to Georgetown in the Big East semis, though they weren’t exactly playing the Showtime Lakers during the streak.

Why they’re out like Ellen DeGeneres: Didn’t play a particularly difficult Big East schedule, avoiding Pittsburgh altogether and getting throttled by Georgetown during their one regular season meeting. Mike Brey has had more talented teams than this group in the past decade and has historically underachieved in the tournament. Not really a marquee win to hang their hat on considering their best non-conference win came against a team that, while formidable now, was playing far from their best when it happened.

Gettin’ outta town with a W: @ Maryland, Villanova, @ Syracuse, Marquette
How’d they choke that one away?: @ South Florida

Now that we’ve got our Final Four sleepers out of the way, let’s look at the bigger picture. There are five, I repeat FIVE teams that have a chance to cut down the nets on April 2. No big surprises here, all these teams will be top 3 seeds when CBS busts out the brackets later today. Let’s briefly break down the big names that aren’t on this list.

UCLA

Have lost a couple head-scratchers of late, particularly the game against Cal to open the Pac-10 Tournament. They rely too much on Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison and lack the size to bang inside if those two guards aren’t hitting from outside. Not a very good free-throw shooting team, ghastly if you take away Afflalo, Collison and Josh Shipp. And, here at Give and Go we believe history matters, and no team that has lost its first conference tournament game has gone on to win the national championship. Oregon is a much safer Pac-10 bet to get to the Peach State.

Wisconsin

Brian Butch, their best big guy, and one who also has some range, is likely out for the season. Alando Tucker is a great player but hasn’t proven himself as a guy who will take on all comers when it counts. Plus you know coaches will be planning to throw everything short of the water boy at Tucker to deny him the ball. Kammron Taylor is a nice sidekick, but beyond him, who will score for the Badgers. Play a slow-down style reminiscent of the New Jersey Devils’ neutral-zone trap. In other words, if they get the lead, they’re in good shape. If they fall behind, well, spring practice for the gridiron gang starts soon.

Georgetown

Have won 14 of 15. Won the Big East regular season and tournament championships. Have the conference player of the year and a 7’2” center who seemingly gets better every time he gets on the floor. What’s not to like, right? Well, they tend to be careless with the ball on offense, as evidenced by their even assist/turnover ratio. But their kryptonite will be evident as soon as they run into a team that likes to, well, run. Georgetown has athletes, but they aren’t the quickest bunch you’ll find. If you run into a team with steady guard play that likes to penetrate, the Hoyas will be exposed faster than Tom Brady’s future in the birth control business.

Memphis

Does anyone know what to expect from this team? They’ve essentially been the 15-year-old bully among a group of pre-teens for the past two months. Games against Kentucky, Georgia Tech and Arizona out of Conference USA that would normally look good look like nothing given the down years of those programs. They went to Spokane and beat Gonzaga in late February, but that was right after mushroom-gate was hanging over the Bulldogs’ program. A very young team that may find itself in over its heads once they get punched in the mouth. Then again, if they rallied and went to the Final Four, it wouldn’t be a complete stunner. An enigma that will likely get a two-seed, they have the talent to win some games but aren’t a serious national championship contender.

That leaves four teams (and one wildcard) to compete for the national title. In reverse order of their prospects for the next three weeks, they are:

4) Florida

Well, they’ve been here before, and that helps. Or does it? Spent the two weeks prior to the SEC Tournament sleep-walking before getting a jolt of life once they got to Atlanta. Good omen? Maybe, but their path through the conference tourney has been a walk in the park. They don’t have a real go-to player on offense, but depending on who’s hitting, that can be Al Horford, Lee Humphrey, Corey Brewer or Taurean Green. They’re one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament from beyond the arc, and even if they’re not hitting, Joakim Noah and Horford are there to clean things up. They defend very well on the perimeter, and their big guys do as good a job showing and getting back into the paint as anyone. Will motivation be a factor? Quite frankly it shouldn’t. This is their chance to be the first repeat winners since Duke did it 14 years ago. They have as good of a chance as anyone on paper, but the difficulty of a repeat can’t be underestimated.

3) North Carolina

Possibly the most talented team in the tournament and easily the deepest, often playing 10 guys. That bench will likely grow shorter as the month wears on though, and their fate will be in the hands of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandon Wright. Look for Rayshawn Terry to step up when things get tight toward the end of a game. They have one of the best coaches in the business in Roy Williams and are as quick a team as you’ll find. Are not particularly deep in the frontcourt though, and if Hansbrough gets in foul trouble, they rely on a rail-thin Wright for most of their post play.

Enigma) Texas

We put them here because we’re not sure if they belong at No. 5, No. 1, or off the list entirely. On this list because of one man: the growing legend that is Kevin Durant. He’s not only the best player in the country, he’s the best college basketball player since Tim Duncan. He can go inside, but is most comfortable in a mid-range game. Has ridiculous range for a man his size and will pull up for 27-footers knowing there’s nothing his defender can do. That being said, they’re not all Durant. D.J. Augustin is the closest thing the college game has seen to Jameer Nelson since, well, Nelson himself. A.J. Abrams is an assassin from beyond the arc. In fact, they feature four regulars who hit at least 40%. Their troubles could come from the sidelines. Rick Barnes often looks as if he has no clue how to get Durant the basketball in the best position to do damage, and Texas will often go multiple possessions down the stretch without letting Durant touch the ball. Obviously, that’s a problem, because without Durant doing his thing, that limits the effectiveness of Augustin and Abrams from three-point range. But they’ll have the best player on the court every time they play, and often, because of Augustin, they’ll have the two best.

2) Ohio State

Speaking of teams being here primarily because of one guy, here’s another: the Buckeyes and Greg Oden. Oden dominates game in a different fashion than Durant – on the defensive end. And, like Texas, they have other guys who can step up. Oden’s high school teammate Mike Conley Jr. has emerged as a great leader at the point guard position as a freshman. Daequan Cook is a remarkable athlete with range, and unlike the Longhorns, Ohio State has a group of upperclassmen who can play in Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler and Ivan Harris. They’re very fundamentally sound and they take care of the basketball. A lot will depend on Oden staying out of foul trouble. Their only three losses came against North Carolina, Wisconsin and Florida, which is either impressive or a cause for alarm depending on your point of view. Can they hang with the super athletic teams?

1) Kansas

A team full of stars, the brightest being Julian Wright, though he doesn’t get near the recognition that Oden, Durant, or even Brandon Wright get. Five guys average between 9.5 and 13.5 points per game. They defend, they’re athletic and they have shooters. Wright is a great passer and can expose a zone by getting in the middle and dishing inside or out. As is the case with four of our top five teams, they rely primarily on their freshmen and sophomores to get the job done. If there’s a chink in their armor, it could be free-throw shooting. They can also get moving too fast for their own good at times, which can lead to turnovers. Overall, though, they have to be considered the favorite as we wait for the brackets to be unveiled.

More to come as we break down the brackets…

The title that money can't buy

“One bounce, that's all it took. One pingpong ball, and LeBron James stays home. One pingpong ball, and the Cavaliers go from the team with the NBA's worst record and lowest attendance to perhaps the hottest ticket in town. One pingpong ball, and suddenly experienced coaches will want to come to Cleveland, and viable veterans should want to play for the Cavs. One pingpong ball And Cavs fans have hope.”

-Akron Beacon Journal, May 23, 2003


In some ways, I remember May 22, 2003, like I remember Sept. 11, 2001. Like people remember when the Challenger exploded in 1986. Like people remember when JFK was gunned down in Dallas. It was one of those occasions, at least to one town, one fan base, where you remember who you were with, where you were and how much your face hurt from smiling.

It was the day the Cleveland Cavaliers won the NBA Draft lottery, guaranteeing themselves that LeBron James would cruise into the league wearing wine and gold.

(My parents’ living room. Home from college. Pacing back and forth. Went outside and screamed loud enough to bother the neighbors six houses down. With my dad sitting in his brown La-Z-Boy).

Some kids who grow up sports fans remember the smell of the grass at their first baseball game. I remember a four digit combination of ping-pong balls.

This was IT for Cleveland. The Drive, the Fumble, the Shot, the Mesa Meltdown … it was all ancient history. The most hyped amateur athlete ever was ours. And he’d be playing in his own backyard.

Game-winning shots. 50-point games. League MVP.

Even the big words weren’t laughable anymore. Ch-cha-championship. People weren’t afraid to say it. Heck, I’ll take your title talk and make it plural. We had Houdini in high-tops. Eleven other players, a coach, a front office … none of it mattered on May 22, 2003…

“Here's what I know. I had four conversations with connected NBA people over the weekend that centered around the same themes: LeBron isn't playing nearly as hard as he did last season; it looks like his only goal right now is to get his coach fired; he's regressing as a basketball player (especially his passing skills and his shot selection); he made a huge mistake firing his agent and turning his career over to his buddies back home (all of whom are in over their heads); he was a much bigger problem during the Olympics than anyone realized; he doesn't seem to be enjoying himself anymore; he has an overrated sense of his own worth and his own impact in the sports world (as witnessed by the ESPN interview last week when he answered the ‘What are your goals?’ question with two words: ‘Global icon’); he's been protected by magazine fluff pieces and buddy-buddy TV interviews for far too long; he doesn't have the same relentless drive to keep dominating everyone like Wade and Kobe have; and basically, we're much closer to LeBron re-enacting the career arc of Martina Hingis, Eric Lindros and Junior Griffey than anyone realizes. This will evolve into THE dominant NBA story of the next two months. You watch.”

-ESPN.com, Feb. 20, 2007



And here we are three years and nine months later. Heck, nine months ago we were still knee-deep in the glory of that first paragraph. The Cavaliers had knocked off the Wizards in LeBron’s first playoff series and had battled the seemingly invincible Pistons tooth-and-nail in a seven-game circus ride in Round Two.

LeBron signed an extension in the summer. Progress was being made. The foundation was there. The Finals weren’t far off. Size up those ring fingers, boys.

We sat down to watch this season, the popcorn buttered and the soda on ice, feet up, ready to witness what was next. Only once we were strapped in, the video was a little bit ahead of the audio, like one of those old movies in Japanese that’s given an English translation. Lips were reciting words that didn’t quite seem to fit. We sat down anticipating The Empire Strikes Back but instead we’re seeing The Phantom Menace.

Maybe we all expected this one man to do too much. Placing the weight of an NBA franchise on an 18-year-old kid had never been dreamed of before this. But the thing was, with all the hype, with the expectations, he came out and exceeded all of it that first year. What else could we anticipate other than excellence?

Then, a funny thing happened as the arc continued upward in years two and three, leading to this fourth season of extraordinary expectation. Beyond the shoe deals, trading card cash and sports drink dinero, LeBron had a new goal in mind: to be “the richest man in the world.”

Michael Jordan was arguably the greatest basketball player to ever walk this Earth. He made more money than the average person could dream of. But the richest man in the world? That’s a title reserved for guys like Bill Gates, Paul Allen and Warren Buffett (who LeBron met with over milkshakes this summer). Not long after that meeting, he clued us in to his “richest man” wishes, and soon after, earning potential surpassed assist-to-turnover ratio on LeBron’s hot list. Jordan didn’t set out to be a global icon, like LeBron claims he wants to be. He worked until he was the best player in the game, one who transcended his sport, and his popularity took off.

We’re led to believe Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Eric Snow are to blame for what has been an underwhelming season in Cleveland, and there are certainly elements of truth to that. Hughes is more fragile than a Faberge egg, Ilgauskas is hot and cold, and Snow would struggle to shoot the ball into a whirlpool consistently. But, as the self-proclaimed leader of this team, LeBron has to pick up the slack. He can’t wander around the perimeter dribbling incessantly, then jack up a 25-footer as the shot clock winds down. He can’t disappear in the fourth quarter, something you’d never dream of seeing out of this wunderkind last year.

Maybe most of all, he needs to stop construction on that Habitat for Humanity home he’s building with his bricks from the free-throw line. And as any basketball mind worth his salt knows, free throws are mental.

As long as LeBron James is employed by the National Basketball Association, he’ll be one of the league’s top 10 players. He’s simply too talented, too special to be anything else. But as far as he’s come since entering the NBA, he hasn’t crossed that bridge from individual superstar to winner, and I’m afraid he never will. The great ones all had megawatt talent – Jordan, Bird, Russell, Kareem, Magic. Most, if not all of them, had less than LeBron. But the reason those guys have their fingers decked out with rings is because they wanted it more than anything. They had that burning desire to cut their opponents’ throat, that fire in their eyes to always take and make that last shot to win a ballgame, or, if necessary, to stop the best guy on the other team from doing the same.

That’s one trait that LeBron may never possess. Like height, I don’t know if that champion’s mentality can be taught.

One thing’s for sure: it can’t be bought and sold, or traded like a stock. And without it, LeBron will never be the richest man in the world.