Well, it became painfully clear to the rest of the NFL Monday night that the Colts are very much no longer the one-trick pony they used to be. They punched the typically physical Steelers right in Bill Cowher's proverbial jaw on their way to a 26-7 victory that wasn't even that close.
The Steelers came in with a simple game plan: control the clock and keep the ball away from Peyton Manning and friends. Unfortunately, as has been far too often the case in Bill Cowher's 15 years of spittle-inducing fury on the sidelines, that plan was exposed early for what is was: vanilla and unrealistic.
The Steelers have not been able to run the ball succesfully against good defenses this year. They went for 104 against San Diego, but ran for under 80 against Baltimore, Jacksonville, and a New England defense that in September wasn't quite the M.A.S.H. unit it currently resembles. Yes, they ran all over the Bengals, but Cincinnati's defense has yet to earn the label of elite unit.
So what did they try to do Monday night? Run, run, and run some more to play "clockball." They ran the ball on nine of their first 12 first downs and gained two or fewer yards on six of those attempts. The Colts knew the Steelers were going to run. Tony Dungy knew the Steelers were going to run. Heck, even John Madden knew the Steelers were going to run. But their lack of success and Cowher's stubborn nature didn't stop them from throwing the ball early against a defense geared to stop the run.
Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the '05 Steelers is their lack of interest in even ATTEMPTING a pass more than 20 yards downfield. Ben Roethlisberger, at one point Monday evening, had completed 13 passes for about 65 yards. Five yards per completion isn't gonna get it done against the 49ers, let alone the Colts.
This simply isn't the same squad as the '04 group that easily could have gone to and won the Super Bowl had it not been for the same style of coaching that has let them down time and time again in big games over the last decade and a half. The offensive line has been banged up (in the case of Marvel Smith), less effective than usual and aging (Alan Faneca, Jeff Hartings), inexperienced and probably not very good to begin with (Trai Essex), far more bad than good (Max Starks) and flat-out abysmal (Kendall Simmons). Jerome Bettis is a year older and a few tires wider. The superbly talented Plaxico Burress has been replaced by the marginally talented Cedric Wilson. Antwaan Randle El has been replaced with an even less useful Antwaan Randle El.
On the defensive side of the ball, Joey Porter has been on the decline since the middle of '04 at the latest, Larry Foote is putrid and Clark Haggans and James Farrior have been hurt. The secondary has taken a lot of heat when the team has been struggling, but the real culprit has been the defensive front, which generates pressure on the opposing QB about as often as we're treated to Haley's comet in the night sky. The 3-4 defense isn't the optimal defense for getting penetration up front against a passing attack, but combined with the lack of any semblance of effective blitzing, which far too often involves the corners or safeties, it has been rendered obsolete.
The greatest problem though is the change that didn't take place in the offseason. Bill Cowher is still wearing the headset on the sidelines and gazing peculiarly at the events unfolding before him like a man walking in on his wife making love to a unicorn. Pick your poison from Monday night's throttling and you can make a case for a man who should no longer be in control of the NFL team that has done the least with its superior talent in the past 10 years. It doesn't matter whether it was the run-first attitude that didn't change following its lack of success, the completely absurd onside kick to start the second half, or the unconscionable 4th-and-5 decision to let Roethliberger run a QB draw ... each epitomized Cowher's coaching style. To put it simply, he's scared to lose, and that was painfully clear Monday night.
Particularly in the case of the onside kick, he basically admitted that his offense, which did nothing in the first half that wasn't handed to them, needed the ball, while his defense, which came together quite nicely following the debacle that was the first play from scrimmage, was not to be trusted with the Colts starting at their own 25 or so.
In the meantime, the Colts are clearly the class of the NFL and, despite having a coach who has come up as big in critical game over his career as Cowher has, will vault over that hump this year. With Manning essentially running the show and the defensive line ensuring the big plays against will be kept to a minimum, there isn't a team in the league that should be able to run with the Colts. Denver is the closest option, but Jake Plummer in a road playoff game? Not likely.
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Friday, November 18, 2005
Rivalry weekend
After nearly a month of the laptop being on hiatus thanks to, in the words of the fine Asian gentleman who fixed it, a "shot hard drive," the blog returns as college football (and in a small way, the NFL) heads into rivalry weekend.
When we came to you last, Penn State was reeling from a last-second loss at the Big House in Ann Arbor, a result of a vanilla defense, questionable officiating from a crew chief that, like most Big 11 zebras, hailed from the great state of Michigan, and perhaps most significantly, lobbying from Lloyd Carr for two more seconds on the clock. Since then, the Lions have reeled off three impressive "on-the-surface" wins - less impressive when you consider the fact the opponents were a team playing above its heads in Barry Alvarez's final season, perhaps the single biggest disappointment in D-I college football, and perhaps the worst team from a major conference in the past 15 years not named Temple.
Now, the Lions head into East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that is playing the role its most comfortable with: late-season spoiler, trying to salvage its own season after running off to a lightning-quick start and proceeding to collapse in mid-October. No one knows the role better than Michigan State. Add in the fact that the Spartans are 9-1 against Top 10 opponents since 1997 (one of the truly great "are you kidding?" stats to come along in a while), and the upset alert is on.
The stakes are simple enough: win and PSU is the Big 11 Champion, on its way to a BCS bowl, and on the couch for the next two weeks hoping USC or Texas, among others, falter so that it may have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Lose and more than likely head to Orlando for a second trip in four years to the Crapital One Bowl. Not good times.
One of the most interesting questions to consider at this point is where Penn State would be had Chad Henne not hit Mario Maningham in the end zone on that fortuitous final play. The answer seems pretty clear - third in the BCS, third in all the polls, as they would be the third undefeated team behind SC and Texas. So basically, all it did in the long run was cost Penn State one spot in the BCS rankings.
As it currently stands, Penn State needs to win at Michigan State and get help in the following form: SC or Texas must lose, and either Miami or possibly LSU must lose as well.
Why LSU you ask, a team that Penn State is one spot ahead of in the BCS? LSU still sits ahead of Penn State in the two polls that count toward the BCS. Should Penn State move up one spot in each it may - and I stress may - be enough to surpass the Hurricanes even should Miami win out. However, the more likely scenario is the PSU needs a loss by the 'Canes in addition to Goliath A or Goliath B faltering.
I'd place the odds of Penn State slithering into the Rose Bowl at about 5 percent: Though I believe the Lions would give SC or Texas a hell of a game, those two are looking semi-invincable (or in the case of Texas, in-Vince-ible) and Miami is playing its best ball at the right time.
On to some picks for the weekend:
IOWA (-4.5) over Minnesota:
I'll take Minnesota in the dome, but Iowa's pink locker rooms will do the trick in this one. Laurence Maroney is probable, and though the Gophers can run with or without home, look for Iowa, reinvigorated from its win at Wisconsin, to pull it out late.
Pick: Iowa 38, Minnesota 30
Northwestern (-15.5) over ILLINOIS:
Team A can score points. Team B can't. Team A can play defense on occasion. Team B can't. Team A has a quarterback who throws it to his own receivers. Team B has a quarterback who throws to Teams C, D, E, F, G, H and I. Team A ain't Illinois.
Pick: Northwestern 48, Illinois 20
INDIANA (+12.5) over Purdue:
Indiana, despite trouncing Illinois earlier in the fall, has done everything possible over the last month to make people believe they are just as bad as the Illini. But they're not quite that bad, and thanks to the nature of this game in the state of Indiana (and ONLY in the state of Indiana), they'll hang close for a while.
Pick: Purdue 34, Indiana 26
Ohio State (-3) over MICHIGAN:
Winner of this one takes the Big Ten's BCS bid should Penn State falter. Despite it being in Ann Arbor, it's as simple as this: Ohio State is deserving of winning or sharing the conference crown; this Michigan team, despite showing marked improvement in the past month, is not.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20
MICHIGAN STATE (+8) over Penn State:
History suggest the battle for the Land Grant trophy will be a blowout in favor of the home team. Logic, among other strong variables, suggest it will be a blowout in favor of the road team. Michigan State's season comes down to this game, and East Lansing will be alive for this game, whereas if any other team were waltzing in at this point, the Spartans may have simply rolled over. But Penn State will be ready.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 26
And the upset special of the week, leaving Penn State one SC/Texas loss shy of the Rose Bowl:
Georgia Tech (+18) over MIAMI:
Miami has its final two games at home before a likely ACC championship game tilt against Florida State. Unfortunately for the 'Canes, this is a team that can often go out feeling it has something to prove on the road, while playing lackluster ball at home. This college football season has lacked the big, big upset, all season, and an 18-point dog going into the No. 3 team in the nation's house and winning would do the trick.
Pick: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27
When we came to you last, Penn State was reeling from a last-second loss at the Big House in Ann Arbor, a result of a vanilla defense, questionable officiating from a crew chief that, like most Big 11 zebras, hailed from the great state of Michigan, and perhaps most significantly, lobbying from Lloyd Carr for two more seconds on the clock. Since then, the Lions have reeled off three impressive "on-the-surface" wins - less impressive when you consider the fact the opponents were a team playing above its heads in Barry Alvarez's final season, perhaps the single biggest disappointment in D-I college football, and perhaps the worst team from a major conference in the past 15 years not named Temple.
Now, the Lions head into East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that is playing the role its most comfortable with: late-season spoiler, trying to salvage its own season after running off to a lightning-quick start and proceeding to collapse in mid-October. No one knows the role better than Michigan State. Add in the fact that the Spartans are 9-1 against Top 10 opponents since 1997 (one of the truly great "are you kidding?" stats to come along in a while), and the upset alert is on.
The stakes are simple enough: win and PSU is the Big 11 Champion, on its way to a BCS bowl, and on the couch for the next two weeks hoping USC or Texas, among others, falter so that it may have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Lose and more than likely head to Orlando for a second trip in four years to the Crapital One Bowl. Not good times.
One of the most interesting questions to consider at this point is where Penn State would be had Chad Henne not hit Mario Maningham in the end zone on that fortuitous final play. The answer seems pretty clear - third in the BCS, third in all the polls, as they would be the third undefeated team behind SC and Texas. So basically, all it did in the long run was cost Penn State one spot in the BCS rankings.
As it currently stands, Penn State needs to win at Michigan State and get help in the following form: SC or Texas must lose, and either Miami or possibly LSU must lose as well.
Why LSU you ask, a team that Penn State is one spot ahead of in the BCS? LSU still sits ahead of Penn State in the two polls that count toward the BCS. Should Penn State move up one spot in each it may - and I stress may - be enough to surpass the Hurricanes even should Miami win out. However, the more likely scenario is the PSU needs a loss by the 'Canes in addition to Goliath A or Goliath B faltering.
I'd place the odds of Penn State slithering into the Rose Bowl at about 5 percent: Though I believe the Lions would give SC or Texas a hell of a game, those two are looking semi-invincable (or in the case of Texas, in-Vince-ible) and Miami is playing its best ball at the right time.
On to some picks for the weekend:
IOWA (-4.5) over Minnesota:
I'll take Minnesota in the dome, but Iowa's pink locker rooms will do the trick in this one. Laurence Maroney is probable, and though the Gophers can run with or without home, look for Iowa, reinvigorated from its win at Wisconsin, to pull it out late.
Pick: Iowa 38, Minnesota 30
Northwestern (-15.5) over ILLINOIS:
Team A can score points. Team B can't. Team A can play defense on occasion. Team B can't. Team A has a quarterback who throws it to his own receivers. Team B has a quarterback who throws to Teams C, D, E, F, G, H and I. Team A ain't Illinois.
Pick: Northwestern 48, Illinois 20
INDIANA (+12.5) over Purdue:
Indiana, despite trouncing Illinois earlier in the fall, has done everything possible over the last month to make people believe they are just as bad as the Illini. But they're not quite that bad, and thanks to the nature of this game in the state of Indiana (and ONLY in the state of Indiana), they'll hang close for a while.
Pick: Purdue 34, Indiana 26
Ohio State (-3) over MICHIGAN:
Winner of this one takes the Big Ten's BCS bid should Penn State falter. Despite it being in Ann Arbor, it's as simple as this: Ohio State is deserving of winning or sharing the conference crown; this Michigan team, despite showing marked improvement in the past month, is not.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20
MICHIGAN STATE (+8) over Penn State:
History suggest the battle for the Land Grant trophy will be a blowout in favor of the home team. Logic, among other strong variables, suggest it will be a blowout in favor of the road team. Michigan State's season comes down to this game, and East Lansing will be alive for this game, whereas if any other team were waltzing in at this point, the Spartans may have simply rolled over. But Penn State will be ready.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 26
And the upset special of the week, leaving Penn State one SC/Texas loss shy of the Rose Bowl:
Georgia Tech (+18) over MIAMI:
Miami has its final two games at home before a likely ACC championship game tilt against Florida State. Unfortunately for the 'Canes, this is a team that can often go out feeling it has something to prove on the road, while playing lackluster ball at home. This college football season has lacked the big, big upset, all season, and an 18-point dog going into the No. 3 team in the nation's house and winning would do the trick.
Pick: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27
Friday, October 21, 2005
Some mid-October rumblings...
College football hits the midpoint of its season this week, and as usual, things have been as wild as ever. Last Saturday featured some of the most fantastic finishes you'll see on any gridiron, including three wild Big Ten games that were decided within the last two minutes and another, Ohio State-Michigan State, that the Buckeyes won despite not running 1 PLAY! in Michigan State territory until under six minutes remained in the game. Ridiculous.
Penn State had a chance to take a chokehold on the conference with a win at Michigan, but playing a Charmin Ultra defense and having to deal with some corrupt officiating for their second Big House visit in a row, the Nittany Lions lost, 27-25 on the last play of the game. Hats off to Michigan for playing a tough game, but if the Big Ten is going to continue to be the pioneers of instant replay they claim to be, then use it.
Nonetheless, it's on to Week 5 in conference play. First off, here are the current Big Ten power rankings.
1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Michigan
8. Northwestern
9. Indiana
10. Purdue
11. Illinois
Teams 3-8 could realistically be flip-flopped in almost any order and it wouldn't be outlandish. Though Michigan will have a firm grasp on 8th place if they lose to Iowa this weekend. Purdue is an absolute disgrace considering some folks thought they were a preseason top 10 team. Indiana has shown improvement but still isn't more than a bottom-tier team in the league for now. And Illinois has been awful since conference play started.
Now, to the matchups.
IOWA (-2.5) over Michigan:
Iowa has a 22-game winning streak at home. Michigan should be sky-high after its last second heroics against Penn State. Michigan will also have to deal with Iowa's visiting pink locker rooms, which seem to have scared off the last 22 teams that have used them for the afternoon. At this point, it's safe to say we know less about Iowa than any other Big Ten team. They got smoked at Ohio State and have handled the three bottom-feeders with ease.
Pick: Iowa 30, Michigan 24
INDIANA (+16) over Ohio State:
Indiana has at least shown signs of competitiveness in its first season under Terry Hoeppner. Ohio State looked awful for most of the Michigan State game, and that was preceded by looking absolutely awful in Happy Valley for 60 minutes (save for one drive). Ohio State shouldn't have much to get up for in this one, and may in fact be looking ahead to a toughie at Minnesota next week. If the Buckeyes can't get their offense going in Bloomington, they may never get it going. But 16 points is just too much for a team this offensively challeneged.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Northwestern (+12.5) over MICHIGAN STATE:
How this line is so big is a mystery to me. Northwestern has been one of the league's pleasant surprises, and Michigan State continues to be a mystery. Still, Michigan State's offense is prolific enough that the Spartans could win the league. This game will be extremely high-scoring and it may come down to whichever defense can come up with any sort of stop. A must-win for MSU to remain in the conference title race. Look for about 800 yards passing combined between Brett Basanaez and Drew Stanton.
Pick: Michigan State 48, Northwestern 38
Purdue (+7.5) over WISCONSIN:
No logical reason behind this one, other than Purdue is "due" to play well. While they're not the top 10 program some may have thought, they still have too much talent to go 2-5. Or do they? Wisconsin is playing over its heads and is coming off a miraculous last-minute win in Minneapolis last week. Still, it will be awfully tough for the Boilers to win this one in Madison. Purdue owes Wisconsin a little bit of payback for a heartbreaking loss last year in West Lafayette, and will be primed to play.
Pick: Wisconsin 33, Purdue 28
ILLINOIS (+18) over Penn State:
Same situation as the OSU-Indiana game. Penn State's offense, particularly now that they're missing Derrick Williams, is not good enough to trust as 18-point favorites on the road. This is Illinois' homecoming and would make their season, plain and simple, if they could pull the upset. Penn State has fallen apart in recent years after heartbreaking losses, most notably in 1999, the last time they were undefeated in October. It will say a lot about the Nittany Lions' mental toughness if they can come into Champaign and pound a hungry Illinois team.
Pick: Penn State 31, Illinois 16
Penn State had a chance to take a chokehold on the conference with a win at Michigan, but playing a Charmin Ultra defense and having to deal with some corrupt officiating for their second Big House visit in a row, the Nittany Lions lost, 27-25 on the last play of the game. Hats off to Michigan for playing a tough game, but if the Big Ten is going to continue to be the pioneers of instant replay they claim to be, then use it.
Nonetheless, it's on to Week 5 in conference play. First off, here are the current Big Ten power rankings.
1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Michigan
8. Northwestern
9. Indiana
10. Purdue
11. Illinois
Teams 3-8 could realistically be flip-flopped in almost any order and it wouldn't be outlandish. Though Michigan will have a firm grasp on 8th place if they lose to Iowa this weekend. Purdue is an absolute disgrace considering some folks thought they were a preseason top 10 team. Indiana has shown improvement but still isn't more than a bottom-tier team in the league for now. And Illinois has been awful since conference play started.
Now, to the matchups.
IOWA (-2.5) over Michigan:
Iowa has a 22-game winning streak at home. Michigan should be sky-high after its last second heroics against Penn State. Michigan will also have to deal with Iowa's visiting pink locker rooms, which seem to have scared off the last 22 teams that have used them for the afternoon. At this point, it's safe to say we know less about Iowa than any other Big Ten team. They got smoked at Ohio State and have handled the three bottom-feeders with ease.
Pick: Iowa 30, Michigan 24
INDIANA (+16) over Ohio State:
Indiana has at least shown signs of competitiveness in its first season under Terry Hoeppner. Ohio State looked awful for most of the Michigan State game, and that was preceded by looking absolutely awful in Happy Valley for 60 minutes (save for one drive). Ohio State shouldn't have much to get up for in this one, and may in fact be looking ahead to a toughie at Minnesota next week. If the Buckeyes can't get their offense going in Bloomington, they may never get it going. But 16 points is just too much for a team this offensively challeneged.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Northwestern (+12.5) over MICHIGAN STATE:
How this line is so big is a mystery to me. Northwestern has been one of the league's pleasant surprises, and Michigan State continues to be a mystery. Still, Michigan State's offense is prolific enough that the Spartans could win the league. This game will be extremely high-scoring and it may come down to whichever defense can come up with any sort of stop. A must-win for MSU to remain in the conference title race. Look for about 800 yards passing combined between Brett Basanaez and Drew Stanton.
Pick: Michigan State 48, Northwestern 38
Purdue (+7.5) over WISCONSIN:
No logical reason behind this one, other than Purdue is "due" to play well. While they're not the top 10 program some may have thought, they still have too much talent to go 2-5. Or do they? Wisconsin is playing over its heads and is coming off a miraculous last-minute win in Minneapolis last week. Still, it will be awfully tough for the Boilers to win this one in Madison. Purdue owes Wisconsin a little bit of payback for a heartbreaking loss last year in West Lafayette, and will be primed to play.
Pick: Wisconsin 33, Purdue 28
ILLINOIS (+18) over Penn State:
Same situation as the OSU-Indiana game. Penn State's offense, particularly now that they're missing Derrick Williams, is not good enough to trust as 18-point favorites on the road. This is Illinois' homecoming and would make their season, plain and simple, if they could pull the upset. Penn State has fallen apart in recent years after heartbreaking losses, most notably in 1999, the last time they were undefeated in October. It will say a lot about the Nittany Lions' mental toughness if they can come into Champaign and pound a hungry Illinois team.
Pick: Penn State 31, Illinois 16
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
Doesn't get much bigger than this
As a Penn State alumnus who attended school from the fall of 2000 until the spring of 2004, I was in State College for some lean years on the gridiron. Growing up a Nittany Lion fan, I came to expect nothing but the best out of Joe Paterno's teams year in and year out, and while, as a whole, everything following the undefeated 1994 season until the end of the decade was a bit of a letdown, the team would still win nine or 10 games each year.
Then, Nov. 6, 1999 happened. The 1999 team was in many ways the inverse of the offensively superior 1994 squad - a dominant defense to go with a more-than-capable, if unspectacular offense. The only problem was that for one windy November afternoon, Penn State let Minnesota hang around just a bit too long, and it bit them after a game-winning field goal as time expired, following a miraculous fourth-down completion via a deflection. Tom Brady and Michigan came to town the following week and won, and the season ended with a blowout loss at Michigan State. They salvaged something with an Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M, but those dreams of a national championship had been blown up two months before that day.
2000 began with a 29-5 Kickoff Classic loss to an awful, non-bowlgoing, pre-Pete Carroll USC team, followed by a 24-6 home loss to Toledo ... Penn State's first such trip-up to a MAC team, and really that game that sounded the alarm in Happy Valley.
From there, the unthinkable happened - a season without a bowl game to look forward to. It continued in 2001, though Joe Paterno's record-breaking 324th victory, a come-from-behind thriller over Ohio State, brought some solace to a 5-6 campaign.
2002 seemingly began a turnaround, as the team went 9-4 and could have easily been at least 12-1 had the Lions had a couple plays (and one very incorrect call) go their way. But that team's core was almost solely comprised of seniors, and in some dark recruiting times, 2003 began with the cupboard mostly bare yet again.
The wheels fell off again, as the team went 3-9, thus ending my tenure as a student with a 22-26 record and one disturbingly ugly bowl game defeat.
Last year was more of the same, with the team sporting a slightly improved 4-7 record but having an offense so bad, it once was outscored 4-0 by its own defense in a sickening 6-4 setback to Iowa.
And then, something happened.
On Dec. 22, 2004, Derrick Williams committed to "The University of Penn State." So he was an 18-year-old kid, probably nervous in front of a national audience on ESPNEWS ... no one in State College cared, because "UPS" had landed the No. 1 recruit in the nation.
Much like the real UPS, Joe Paterno had delivered once again.
Justin King was already on board. Two warm bodies with speed the Nittany Lions had previously only seen in the form of Ronnie Brown and Ted Ginn Jr. streaking past their defense. Two difference makers.
Throw in Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood, who had spent 2004 in a redshirt and grayshirt respectively, and Penn State had an infusion of young talent and speed at wideout. Hell, this was a university that hadn't seen a legitimate threat to catch more than a 10-yard pass since Bryant Johnson graduated in 2002.
Five wins in 2005 later, and here we are: an undefeated Penn State team playing at home against what, to me at least, a lifelong Ohioan, is an anguishingly despicable Ohio State program coached by Mr. Rogers Jr., Jim Tressel. Only thing is, Mr. Rogers wouldn't have looked the other way if a cat was taking milk from a booster, or worse yet, being skinned in front of his eyes ... but that's neither here nor there.
To borrow from the inimitable Bill Simmons, let's break this under-the-lights, prime time spectacular down Dr. Jack-style.
Quarterback:
Troy Smith (OSU) vs. Michael Robinson (PSU):
Robinson is a fifth-year senior who is playing quarterback full-time for the first time. It's been a mixed bag of results: he's 5-0 but he's turned the ball over eight times, including four times in a half against Northwestern. He really came into his own against Minnesota last week when he ran the ball, which is where he's clearly at his best. Smith is a junior who only now knows he's the guy in Jim Tressel's offense, but if he struggles in Happy Valley, don't think it will stay that way for long with Justin Zwick on the bench. Then again, Tressel lost the Buckeyes their game against Texas because he couldn't stick with one or the other. Smith is also an excellent runner, and is a SLIGHTLY more polished passer than Robinson. Robinson throws the deep ball better; Smith has more touch on shorter passes.
EDGE: Even
Running back:
Antonio Pittman (OSU) vs. Tony Hunt (PSU):
When Big Ten running back discussions take place, every conversation starts and ends with Laurence Maroney, as it should. But last I checked, Mr. Maroney ran for 48 yards last week while Hunt gained over 100. Hunt is a big, powerful back who is light on his feet and can make people miss, and is one of the most underrated players in the conference. Similarly underrated is the 5'11", 195-pound Pittman, who emerged last year when the Buckeyes realized that Maurice Hall was more of a gargoyle than a tailback. Pittman is smaller but is very shifty and has a nose for hitting the hole at precisely the right moment.
EDGE: Penn State
Wide receiver:
Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, Ted Ginn Jr., Roy Hall, etc. (OSU) vs. Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Justin King, etc. (PSU):
A year ago, this would have been more of a mismatch than Texas Tech and one of the all girls' high schools the Red Raiders call a non-conference game. Penn State had Mark Rubin, who emerged as a moderate possession receiver, and a bunch of kids whose position had changed more times than George W. Bush had mispronounced the word "nuclear." Now, it's at least up for discussion. While the Buckeyes may have the best receiving corps in the country, Penn State has, potentially, its best group since 1994. Holmes will be the best receiver on the field Saturday, and would still be the best even if Ted Ginn wasn't serving as a "decoy," as some seem to think. Frankly, Holmes is just that good. Butler has been Penn State's best receiver thus far, and is the most viable deep threat. Ginn, Williams and King are all more effective at this point getting the ball on gadget plays and utilizing their superior speed to make defenders miss. Gonzalez has emerged as Smith's No. 2 target and has responded rather well, while Norwood was Robinson's go-to guy for a large portion of the Northwestern game. These two groups have easily the most talent that will be on the field during a Big Ten conference game this season, though OSU has a major edge in experience.
EDGE: Ohio State
Offensive line:
Doug Datish, Rob Sims, Nick Mangold, T.J. Downing, Kirk Barton (OSU) vs. Levi Brown, Charles Rush, E.Z. Smith, Tyler Reed, John Wilson (PSU):
Neither offensive line is anywhere near as dominant as both programs have come to expect over the years. Mangold may be the best of the bunch, and he paves the way for the Ohio State ground game up the middle. Rob Sims is no slouch either. The right side of the line, with Downing and Barton, is the place to attack. Penn State's line was porous last year and looked average through the season's first four games, particularly at Northwestern when anyone thrown out there was being pushed back into Robinson's face. That said, the group rebounded to absolutely tear through Minnesota, paving the way for 100-yard rushing days from Hunt and Robinson. Brown is a solid player at left tackle, and Smith and Reed are effective in the middle. Rush is up and down and Wilson is not good.
EDGE: Even
Tight end:
Ryan Hamby (OSU) vs. Isaac Smolko (PSU):
Hamby is a better receiving tight end than Smolko and is utilized more often in the passing game. Smolko is the better blocker and can be counted on if needed to make a big catch here or there. Will often get wide open only to find Robinson looking for anyone but him.
EDGE: Ohio State
Defensive line:
David Patterson, Marcus Green, Quinn Pitcock and Mike Kudla (OSU) vs. Tamba Hali, Jay Alford, Scott Paxson and Matthew Rice (PSU):
Both solid groups but much like their counterparts on the offensive line, not quite as intimidating as some of what we've seen from these schools over the years. No Courtney Browns or Will Smiths in the group, but lots of toughness throughout. Kudla has 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble and Pitcock led the defensive line in tackles last year ... Patterson and Green are relatively unspectacular. Hali is the best of the bunch for Penn State talent-wise, though Paxson gets the most out of what talent he has, and he is, quite frankly, a behemoth in the middle. Rice is quick and Alford is turning into a quality tackle.
EDGE: Penn State
Linebackers:
Anthony Schlegel, A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter (OSU) vs. Tim Shaw, Dan Connor and Paul Posluszny (PSU):
Two of the very elite groups in the country. Hawk is an All-American to the tee and Carpenter is nearly as good. Schlegel doesn't get the glory the other two do, but he's no slouch either. Connor should be back in the lineup for good after missing the first three games due to suspension. Posluszny may turn out to be every bit the player Hawk is by his senior season and Shaw has gained a reputation as a big hitter. You couldn't go wrong going into battle with either of these groups, but OSU's threesome is more experienced and better in coverage as a whole.
EDGE: Ohio State
Secondary:
Ashton Youboty, Tyler Everett, Nate Salley and Donte Whitner (OSU) vs. Alan Zemaitis, Anwar Phillips, Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry (PSU):
Yet another reason why these are two of the better defenses in the nation. Penn State's starters are all seniors, and Zemaitis is the best of the bunch. While he doesn't appear to be a true shutdown corner in some people's eyes, he doesn't have to be, because he is rarely challenged by opposing QBs. Phillips is more athletic but doesn't quite have the football instincts of Zemaitis. Harrell and Lowry are solid center-fielders and Harrell especially isn't afraid to the lay the wood. Youboty has blossomed into a nice player and is a likely future first-round draft pick, but he is not quite as reliable as Zemaitis. Everett is impressive as well but isn't the true corner that Youboty is. Salley is a safety to be feared in the secondary and is the best hitter of the bunch for either team, while Whitner may be the most athletic of the group, a safety who was formerly a cornerback.
EDGE: Even
Special teams:
KR Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn Jr., PR Ginn; K Josh Huston and P A.J. Trapasso (OSU) vs. KR Derrick Williams and Justin King, PR Calvin Lowry; K Kevin Kelly and P Jeremy Kapinos (PSU):
Speed, speed and more speed. Four of the fastest players you'll find make for a strong possibility that a game this close could be decided on special teams. Then you throw in Calvin Lowry, who has as much business returning punts as Weird Al Yankovic has being nominated for a Grammy. The only borderline logical explanation for his returning kicks is that Paterno simply wants a safe choice who he can trust to hang onto the ball ... only problem is, Lowry fumbled more in the last two years than a greased-up Tony Banks or Kurt Warner. Ginn is the man to watch ... he has yet to get going this season but is too talented to avoid the endzone much longer. If you're interested in gambling, call up the MGM Grand and see what kind of odds you can get on Calvin Lowry scoring on special teams before the aforementioned fantastic four. Huston is no Mike Nugent but he's awfully good and Kevin Kelly is 8-for-10 for the Nittany Lions as a true freshman, including a 47-yarder last week.
EDGE: Ohio State
Coaching
Jim Tressel (OSU) vs. Joe Paterno (PSU):
Yes, Jim Tressel won a national championship three years ago, and yes, Joe Paterno has had four losing seasons in five autumns in State College. But if there's one thing that can be taken away from watching this team in the new millenium, it's that even though his teams may not have 1/3 of the talent that some of the teams in the mid-80s or mid-90s had, Paterno isn't afraid to try things. First the shotgun, then the option and now the spread offense. Meanwhile, Tressel continues to play things as close to the (sweater) vest as possible for a Division I college coach with national title aspirations. Yes, he accomplished in three seasons what John Cooper couldn't do in 13, but if someone tells you Tressel is full utilizing all his talen, he's drunk or lying. The difference now for Paterno is that while he's still trying innovative things, he now has some true talent to help run things. Certainly Galen Hall, Penn State's offensive coordinator, deserves a large portion of that credit, but it's as if Paterno is living on borrowed time and he knows it. He's recognized that going out with a bang, even if it's not the Rose Bowl peg he'd like to hang it up on, is a hell of a lot better than three yards and a cloud of dust. He understands that college football has changed and he has to change, grudgingly or not, along with it.
Tressel is a wonderful college football coach who seems to have his teams as well-prepared as possible most Saturdays for what they're about to face. But the Texas game showed the nation that he doesn't always have it together when it comes to making adjustments within the context of a game. Outside of Ryan Hamby having about 13 chances to bring one simple Troy Smith pass down in the end zone, Tressel's coaching was the primary reason Ohio State didn't walk away winners that night in Columbus. He didn't adjust to Vince Young's success throwing the ball to take away the pass and he didn't settle on one quarterback or get Antonio Pittman as involved as he could have. And Ginn has really been nowhere to be found through four games. Of course, all that could change this week. But, as of yet, it hasn't.
EDGE: Penn State
Prediction:
After 23 years of obsessive fanatacism following sports, I've learned two things: when you think you're right, you're wrong, and when you get too excited about your team, bad things happen. Both reasons typically preclude me from picking games in which I have more than a vested rooting interest.
With that said, all things considered, Ohio State should win the game 20-16. They will strike once on special teams, once through the air, and Josh Huston will boot two field goals. Penn State will have a chance late in the game, but a late fumble from Michael Robinson will prove too much to overcome.
Just remember ... I've been wrong before.
Then, Nov. 6, 1999 happened. The 1999 team was in many ways the inverse of the offensively superior 1994 squad - a dominant defense to go with a more-than-capable, if unspectacular offense. The only problem was that for one windy November afternoon, Penn State let Minnesota hang around just a bit too long, and it bit them after a game-winning field goal as time expired, following a miraculous fourth-down completion via a deflection. Tom Brady and Michigan came to town the following week and won, and the season ended with a blowout loss at Michigan State. They salvaged something with an Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M, but those dreams of a national championship had been blown up two months before that day.
2000 began with a 29-5 Kickoff Classic loss to an awful, non-bowlgoing, pre-Pete Carroll USC team, followed by a 24-6 home loss to Toledo ... Penn State's first such trip-up to a MAC team, and really that game that sounded the alarm in Happy Valley.
From there, the unthinkable happened - a season without a bowl game to look forward to. It continued in 2001, though Joe Paterno's record-breaking 324th victory, a come-from-behind thriller over Ohio State, brought some solace to a 5-6 campaign.
2002 seemingly began a turnaround, as the team went 9-4 and could have easily been at least 12-1 had the Lions had a couple plays (and one very incorrect call) go their way. But that team's core was almost solely comprised of seniors, and in some dark recruiting times, 2003 began with the cupboard mostly bare yet again.
The wheels fell off again, as the team went 3-9, thus ending my tenure as a student with a 22-26 record and one disturbingly ugly bowl game defeat.
Last year was more of the same, with the team sporting a slightly improved 4-7 record but having an offense so bad, it once was outscored 4-0 by its own defense in a sickening 6-4 setback to Iowa.
And then, something happened.
On Dec. 22, 2004, Derrick Williams committed to "The University of Penn State." So he was an 18-year-old kid, probably nervous in front of a national audience on ESPNEWS ... no one in State College cared, because "UPS" had landed the No. 1 recruit in the nation.
Much like the real UPS, Joe Paterno had delivered once again.
Justin King was already on board. Two warm bodies with speed the Nittany Lions had previously only seen in the form of Ronnie Brown and Ted Ginn Jr. streaking past their defense. Two difference makers.
Throw in Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood, who had spent 2004 in a redshirt and grayshirt respectively, and Penn State had an infusion of young talent and speed at wideout. Hell, this was a university that hadn't seen a legitimate threat to catch more than a 10-yard pass since Bryant Johnson graduated in 2002.
Five wins in 2005 later, and here we are: an undefeated Penn State team playing at home against what, to me at least, a lifelong Ohioan, is an anguishingly despicable Ohio State program coached by Mr. Rogers Jr., Jim Tressel. Only thing is, Mr. Rogers wouldn't have looked the other way if a cat was taking milk from a booster, or worse yet, being skinned in front of his eyes ... but that's neither here nor there.
To borrow from the inimitable Bill Simmons, let's break this under-the-lights, prime time spectacular down Dr. Jack-style.
Quarterback:
Troy Smith (OSU) vs. Michael Robinson (PSU):
Robinson is a fifth-year senior who is playing quarterback full-time for the first time. It's been a mixed bag of results: he's 5-0 but he's turned the ball over eight times, including four times in a half against Northwestern. He really came into his own against Minnesota last week when he ran the ball, which is where he's clearly at his best. Smith is a junior who only now knows he's the guy in Jim Tressel's offense, but if he struggles in Happy Valley, don't think it will stay that way for long with Justin Zwick on the bench. Then again, Tressel lost the Buckeyes their game against Texas because he couldn't stick with one or the other. Smith is also an excellent runner, and is a SLIGHTLY more polished passer than Robinson. Robinson throws the deep ball better; Smith has more touch on shorter passes.
EDGE: Even
Running back:
Antonio Pittman (OSU) vs. Tony Hunt (PSU):
When Big Ten running back discussions take place, every conversation starts and ends with Laurence Maroney, as it should. But last I checked, Mr. Maroney ran for 48 yards last week while Hunt gained over 100. Hunt is a big, powerful back who is light on his feet and can make people miss, and is one of the most underrated players in the conference. Similarly underrated is the 5'11", 195-pound Pittman, who emerged last year when the Buckeyes realized that Maurice Hall was more of a gargoyle than a tailback. Pittman is smaller but is very shifty and has a nose for hitting the hole at precisely the right moment.
EDGE: Penn State
Wide receiver:
Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, Ted Ginn Jr., Roy Hall, etc. (OSU) vs. Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Justin King, etc. (PSU):
A year ago, this would have been more of a mismatch than Texas Tech and one of the all girls' high schools the Red Raiders call a non-conference game. Penn State had Mark Rubin, who emerged as a moderate possession receiver, and a bunch of kids whose position had changed more times than George W. Bush had mispronounced the word "nuclear." Now, it's at least up for discussion. While the Buckeyes may have the best receiving corps in the country, Penn State has, potentially, its best group since 1994. Holmes will be the best receiver on the field Saturday, and would still be the best even if Ted Ginn wasn't serving as a "decoy," as some seem to think. Frankly, Holmes is just that good. Butler has been Penn State's best receiver thus far, and is the most viable deep threat. Ginn, Williams and King are all more effective at this point getting the ball on gadget plays and utilizing their superior speed to make defenders miss. Gonzalez has emerged as Smith's No. 2 target and has responded rather well, while Norwood was Robinson's go-to guy for a large portion of the Northwestern game. These two groups have easily the most talent that will be on the field during a Big Ten conference game this season, though OSU has a major edge in experience.
EDGE: Ohio State
Offensive line:
Doug Datish, Rob Sims, Nick Mangold, T.J. Downing, Kirk Barton (OSU) vs. Levi Brown, Charles Rush, E.Z. Smith, Tyler Reed, John Wilson (PSU):
Neither offensive line is anywhere near as dominant as both programs have come to expect over the years. Mangold may be the best of the bunch, and he paves the way for the Ohio State ground game up the middle. Rob Sims is no slouch either. The right side of the line, with Downing and Barton, is the place to attack. Penn State's line was porous last year and looked average through the season's first four games, particularly at Northwestern when anyone thrown out there was being pushed back into Robinson's face. That said, the group rebounded to absolutely tear through Minnesota, paving the way for 100-yard rushing days from Hunt and Robinson. Brown is a solid player at left tackle, and Smith and Reed are effective in the middle. Rush is up and down and Wilson is not good.
EDGE: Even
Tight end:
Ryan Hamby (OSU) vs. Isaac Smolko (PSU):
Hamby is a better receiving tight end than Smolko and is utilized more often in the passing game. Smolko is the better blocker and can be counted on if needed to make a big catch here or there. Will often get wide open only to find Robinson looking for anyone but him.
EDGE: Ohio State
Defensive line:
David Patterson, Marcus Green, Quinn Pitcock and Mike Kudla (OSU) vs. Tamba Hali, Jay Alford, Scott Paxson and Matthew Rice (PSU):
Both solid groups but much like their counterparts on the offensive line, not quite as intimidating as some of what we've seen from these schools over the years. No Courtney Browns or Will Smiths in the group, but lots of toughness throughout. Kudla has 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble and Pitcock led the defensive line in tackles last year ... Patterson and Green are relatively unspectacular. Hali is the best of the bunch for Penn State talent-wise, though Paxson gets the most out of what talent he has, and he is, quite frankly, a behemoth in the middle. Rice is quick and Alford is turning into a quality tackle.
EDGE: Penn State
Linebackers:
Anthony Schlegel, A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter (OSU) vs. Tim Shaw, Dan Connor and Paul Posluszny (PSU):
Two of the very elite groups in the country. Hawk is an All-American to the tee and Carpenter is nearly as good. Schlegel doesn't get the glory the other two do, but he's no slouch either. Connor should be back in the lineup for good after missing the first three games due to suspension. Posluszny may turn out to be every bit the player Hawk is by his senior season and Shaw has gained a reputation as a big hitter. You couldn't go wrong going into battle with either of these groups, but OSU's threesome is more experienced and better in coverage as a whole.
EDGE: Ohio State
Secondary:
Ashton Youboty, Tyler Everett, Nate Salley and Donte Whitner (OSU) vs. Alan Zemaitis, Anwar Phillips, Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry (PSU):
Yet another reason why these are two of the better defenses in the nation. Penn State's starters are all seniors, and Zemaitis is the best of the bunch. While he doesn't appear to be a true shutdown corner in some people's eyes, he doesn't have to be, because he is rarely challenged by opposing QBs. Phillips is more athletic but doesn't quite have the football instincts of Zemaitis. Harrell and Lowry are solid center-fielders and Harrell especially isn't afraid to the lay the wood. Youboty has blossomed into a nice player and is a likely future first-round draft pick, but he is not quite as reliable as Zemaitis. Everett is impressive as well but isn't the true corner that Youboty is. Salley is a safety to be feared in the secondary and is the best hitter of the bunch for either team, while Whitner may be the most athletic of the group, a safety who was formerly a cornerback.
EDGE: Even
Special teams:
KR Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn Jr., PR Ginn; K Josh Huston and P A.J. Trapasso (OSU) vs. KR Derrick Williams and Justin King, PR Calvin Lowry; K Kevin Kelly and P Jeremy Kapinos (PSU):
Speed, speed and more speed. Four of the fastest players you'll find make for a strong possibility that a game this close could be decided on special teams. Then you throw in Calvin Lowry, who has as much business returning punts as Weird Al Yankovic has being nominated for a Grammy. The only borderline logical explanation for his returning kicks is that Paterno simply wants a safe choice who he can trust to hang onto the ball ... only problem is, Lowry fumbled more in the last two years than a greased-up Tony Banks or Kurt Warner. Ginn is the man to watch ... he has yet to get going this season but is too talented to avoid the endzone much longer. If you're interested in gambling, call up the MGM Grand and see what kind of odds you can get on Calvin Lowry scoring on special teams before the aforementioned fantastic four. Huston is no Mike Nugent but he's awfully good and Kevin Kelly is 8-for-10 for the Nittany Lions as a true freshman, including a 47-yarder last week.
EDGE: Ohio State
Coaching
Jim Tressel (OSU) vs. Joe Paterno (PSU):
Yes, Jim Tressel won a national championship three years ago, and yes, Joe Paterno has had four losing seasons in five autumns in State College. But if there's one thing that can be taken away from watching this team in the new millenium, it's that even though his teams may not have 1/3 of the talent that some of the teams in the mid-80s or mid-90s had, Paterno isn't afraid to try things. First the shotgun, then the option and now the spread offense. Meanwhile, Tressel continues to play things as close to the (sweater) vest as possible for a Division I college coach with national title aspirations. Yes, he accomplished in three seasons what John Cooper couldn't do in 13, but if someone tells you Tressel is full utilizing all his talen, he's drunk or lying. The difference now for Paterno is that while he's still trying innovative things, he now has some true talent to help run things. Certainly Galen Hall, Penn State's offensive coordinator, deserves a large portion of that credit, but it's as if Paterno is living on borrowed time and he knows it. He's recognized that going out with a bang, even if it's not the Rose Bowl peg he'd like to hang it up on, is a hell of a lot better than three yards and a cloud of dust. He understands that college football has changed and he has to change, grudgingly or not, along with it.
Tressel is a wonderful college football coach who seems to have his teams as well-prepared as possible most Saturdays for what they're about to face. But the Texas game showed the nation that he doesn't always have it together when it comes to making adjustments within the context of a game. Outside of Ryan Hamby having about 13 chances to bring one simple Troy Smith pass down in the end zone, Tressel's coaching was the primary reason Ohio State didn't walk away winners that night in Columbus. He didn't adjust to Vince Young's success throwing the ball to take away the pass and he didn't settle on one quarterback or get Antonio Pittman as involved as he could have. And Ginn has really been nowhere to be found through four games. Of course, all that could change this week. But, as of yet, it hasn't.
EDGE: Penn State
Prediction:
After 23 years of obsessive fanatacism following sports, I've learned two things: when you think you're right, you're wrong, and when you get too excited about your team, bad things happen. Both reasons typically preclude me from picking games in which I have more than a vested rooting interest.
With that said, all things considered, Ohio State should win the game 20-16. They will strike once on special teams, once through the air, and Josh Huston will boot two field goals. Penn State will have a chance late in the game, but a late fumble from Michael Robinson will prove too much to overcome.
Just remember ... I've been wrong before.
Thursday, September 29, 2005
Not yet October, but the heat is on
Last week's Big Ten picks were a moderate success, going 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread. Illinois didn't quite keep within double digits of Michigan State like I thought, and Penn State failed to win by a full touchdown over Northwestern ... BUT, considering I nailed Wisconsin beating Michigan and Minnesota's 3OT upset over Purdue, I'll take it.
On to Week 2 in the conference, where Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines are feeling some major heat, and it's not even October. Michigan is in East Lansing this week to battle Michigan State, and its only gimme win the rest of the way is a home tilt against a still-meek Indiana squad in mid-November. Assuming they lost to the Spartans, next week's homecoming matchup against Minnesota will likely tell all we need to know about both of those programs: the Gophers haven't been able to clear the Michigan hurdle for a long, long time, and should Michigan lose to wind up at 2-4, going bowling will be a pipe dream and the Bassett Hound who roams the sidelines for the maize and blue may be out of a job.
Other things we learned last week:
1. Iowa was vastly overrated.
2. Ohio State's pretty damn good.
3. Michael Robinson could single-handedly win a few games and lose a few games for the Nittany Lions this year.
4. Wisconsin isn't exciting to watch, but it's a fitting team for Barry Alvarez to have in his final year as the Badgers' head coach.
5a. Minnesota likes to run the ball.
5b. Minnesota can pass the ball.
5c. Minnesota has a serviceable defense.
5d. OK, we knew the first of those previous three statements. But it's the next two that matter, anyway.
6. Purdue should still rebound just fine.
7. Michigan State can score with the best of 'em. I, for one, am witholding judgment until they play Michigan at home and Ohio State on the road in their next two contests.
8. Indiana shouldn't be campaigning for top 25 votes until it wins a conference game. Which ain't happening this week in Madison.
On to the Week 2 picks:
MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) over Michigan
Michigan State still has a lot to prove to the rest of the country as far as being a consistently dangerous team, but it doesn't have anything to prove to itself. The Spartans rolled through Kent State, Hawaii and Illinois, and held on at Notre Dame despite blowing a 21-point lead. Drew Stanton has completed 73 percent of his passes thus far, throwing for 13 touchdown and just two interceptions. True freshman running back Javon Ringer and sophomore Jehuu Caulcrick both have 300 yards rushing, something the Spartans have struggled to do consistently since oh, about 1997. Michigan is reeling but you know the Bassett Hound himself will have his Wolverines ready for the big intrastate showdown. Believe it or not, Michigan State still has the pressure in this matchup, though that is by no means saying that the Wolvereines aren't feeling heat. But if the Spartans win here, no one will question their status as a top 10 team. Michigan's secondary is too vulnerable and Ryan Mundy is out for the year. Stanton will light the maize and blue up and the Spartan defense will do enough to give Michigan State its first win since 2001 against Michigan.
Pick: Michigan State 37, Michigan 28
Minnesota (-2.5) over PENN STATE
Another game where there is a good amount of pressure on both teams. Minnesota finally beat a quality team last week in Purdue, and Penn State won a conference road game outside of Bloomington. But again, these are two teams that have been unable to get past certain hurdles in recent years. Penn State is 4-0 but has turned the ball over an amazing 13 times in those wins. Justin King, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler give this offense three game-breakers, and Jordan Norwood stepped up last week in Evanston. Meanwhile, Laurence Maroney carried the ball 46 times last week, though Bryan Cupito did manage to throw for 271 yards and 3 TDs as well. This game will come down to two big IFs. IF Penn State can avoid critical turnovers (and the alarming volume with which they've occured) it should win. IF Laurence Maroney doesn't have as much success on the ground against a stout PSU D, and Cupito is forced to win the game, Minnesota should lose. That said, Maroney will find enough running room to keep the Penn State defense on the field until it tires in the fourth quarter, and the Gophers escape.
Pick: Minnesota 27, Penn State 24
IOWA (-18) over Illinois
Iowa got smoked in Columbus, but Kirk Ferentz will make sure his team keeps the ill-effects to a minimum. This spread is a bit tricky considering Iowa's offense has been poor, but Iowa's D is capable of shutting down anyone, particularly an average offense like Illinois. Iowa has to rebound quickly with a trip to West Lafayette on the horizon next week, but at the same time, it can't afford to look ahead. Iowa should use this week to get its offensive kinks worked out, and odds are it will do enough to cover an 18-point spread.
Pick: Iowa 34, Illinois 14
WISCONSIN (-18) over Indiana
Quite frankly, this spread is nowhere near as tricky as the other 18-point spread. Right now, at least, Wisconsin is a better team than Iowa and despite its record, Indiana is a worse team than Illinois. Remember, Indiana struggled mightily to put away a mighty Nicholls State squad just two weeks earlier. Wisconsin showed how dominant it can be against a JV team like Temple and JV defense like Bowling Green. Indiana would struggle to win three conference games playing in the MAC West, so don't look for any miracles from Terry Hoeppner's boys just yet. Brian Calhoun will have plenty of running room in this one and it really shouldn't be close. The Badgers play at Northwestern next week, so it's not as if there's much to look ahead to. The Hoosiers' only chance to keep it close Wisconsin still being caught up in last week's thrilling win over Michigan. Still, Indiana isn't good enough.
Pick: Wisconsin 41, Indiana 16
PURDUE (-3) over Notre Dame
This game should be quite a spectacle, as Purdue tries to win three in a row against the Irish for the first time in over 30 years. It's at night in West Lafayette and the place should be rocking as Charlie Weis brings his boys into town. Purdue will have to suffer through the hangover of a close loss at Minnesota, and should struggle early. But Brandon Kirsch and that offense are too talented to be kept down for too long, and Notre Dame's defense was proven to be a bit of a paper tiger by a talented Michigan State offense a few weeks back. Notre Dame will put up some points thanks mostly to Brady Quinn and Maurice Stovall, but the key for the Irish is getting Darius Walker the ball early and often. Purdue had the No. 1 rushing defense in the country heading into the Metrodome last week, but limped out after being run over by the Laurence Maroiney freight train. Walker won't do nearly as much damage though, and Purdue's home crowd should give it enough of a push to fend off an admirable effort by the Irish.
Pick: Purdue 31, Notre Dame 27
-- Northwestern and Ohio State have the week off before the Wildcats host Wisconsin next week and Penn State welcomes the Buckeyes to Happy Valley for a 7:45 night tilt to be televised by ESPN.
On to Week 2 in the conference, where Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines are feeling some major heat, and it's not even October. Michigan is in East Lansing this week to battle Michigan State, and its only gimme win the rest of the way is a home tilt against a still-meek Indiana squad in mid-November. Assuming they lost to the Spartans, next week's homecoming matchup against Minnesota will likely tell all we need to know about both of those programs: the Gophers haven't been able to clear the Michigan hurdle for a long, long time, and should Michigan lose to wind up at 2-4, going bowling will be a pipe dream and the Bassett Hound who roams the sidelines for the maize and blue may be out of a job.
Other things we learned last week:
1. Iowa was vastly overrated.
2. Ohio State's pretty damn good.
3. Michael Robinson could single-handedly win a few games and lose a few games for the Nittany Lions this year.
4. Wisconsin isn't exciting to watch, but it's a fitting team for Barry Alvarez to have in his final year as the Badgers' head coach.
5a. Minnesota likes to run the ball.
5b. Minnesota can pass the ball.
5c. Minnesota has a serviceable defense.
5d. OK, we knew the first of those previous three statements. But it's the next two that matter, anyway.
6. Purdue should still rebound just fine.
7. Michigan State can score with the best of 'em. I, for one, am witholding judgment until they play Michigan at home and Ohio State on the road in their next two contests.
8. Indiana shouldn't be campaigning for top 25 votes until it wins a conference game. Which ain't happening this week in Madison.
On to the Week 2 picks:
MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) over Michigan
Michigan State still has a lot to prove to the rest of the country as far as being a consistently dangerous team, but it doesn't have anything to prove to itself. The Spartans rolled through Kent State, Hawaii and Illinois, and held on at Notre Dame despite blowing a 21-point lead. Drew Stanton has completed 73 percent of his passes thus far, throwing for 13 touchdown and just two interceptions. True freshman running back Javon Ringer and sophomore Jehuu Caulcrick both have 300 yards rushing, something the Spartans have struggled to do consistently since oh, about 1997. Michigan is reeling but you know the Bassett Hound himself will have his Wolverines ready for the big intrastate showdown. Believe it or not, Michigan State still has the pressure in this matchup, though that is by no means saying that the Wolvereines aren't feeling heat. But if the Spartans win here, no one will question their status as a top 10 team. Michigan's secondary is too vulnerable and Ryan Mundy is out for the year. Stanton will light the maize and blue up and the Spartan defense will do enough to give Michigan State its first win since 2001 against Michigan.
Pick: Michigan State 37, Michigan 28
Minnesota (-2.5) over PENN STATE
Another game where there is a good amount of pressure on both teams. Minnesota finally beat a quality team last week in Purdue, and Penn State won a conference road game outside of Bloomington. But again, these are two teams that have been unable to get past certain hurdles in recent years. Penn State is 4-0 but has turned the ball over an amazing 13 times in those wins. Justin King, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler give this offense three game-breakers, and Jordan Norwood stepped up last week in Evanston. Meanwhile, Laurence Maroney carried the ball 46 times last week, though Bryan Cupito did manage to throw for 271 yards and 3 TDs as well. This game will come down to two big IFs. IF Penn State can avoid critical turnovers (and the alarming volume with which they've occured) it should win. IF Laurence Maroney doesn't have as much success on the ground against a stout PSU D, and Cupito is forced to win the game, Minnesota should lose. That said, Maroney will find enough running room to keep the Penn State defense on the field until it tires in the fourth quarter, and the Gophers escape.
Pick: Minnesota 27, Penn State 24
IOWA (-18) over Illinois
Iowa got smoked in Columbus, but Kirk Ferentz will make sure his team keeps the ill-effects to a minimum. This spread is a bit tricky considering Iowa's offense has been poor, but Iowa's D is capable of shutting down anyone, particularly an average offense like Illinois. Iowa has to rebound quickly with a trip to West Lafayette on the horizon next week, but at the same time, it can't afford to look ahead. Iowa should use this week to get its offensive kinks worked out, and odds are it will do enough to cover an 18-point spread.
Pick: Iowa 34, Illinois 14
WISCONSIN (-18) over Indiana
Quite frankly, this spread is nowhere near as tricky as the other 18-point spread. Right now, at least, Wisconsin is a better team than Iowa and despite its record, Indiana is a worse team than Illinois. Remember, Indiana struggled mightily to put away a mighty Nicholls State squad just two weeks earlier. Wisconsin showed how dominant it can be against a JV team like Temple and JV defense like Bowling Green. Indiana would struggle to win three conference games playing in the MAC West, so don't look for any miracles from Terry Hoeppner's boys just yet. Brian Calhoun will have plenty of running room in this one and it really shouldn't be close. The Badgers play at Northwestern next week, so it's not as if there's much to look ahead to. The Hoosiers' only chance to keep it close Wisconsin still being caught up in last week's thrilling win over Michigan. Still, Indiana isn't good enough.
Pick: Wisconsin 41, Indiana 16
PURDUE (-3) over Notre Dame
This game should be quite a spectacle, as Purdue tries to win three in a row against the Irish for the first time in over 30 years. It's at night in West Lafayette and the place should be rocking as Charlie Weis brings his boys into town. Purdue will have to suffer through the hangover of a close loss at Minnesota, and should struggle early. But Brandon Kirsch and that offense are too talented to be kept down for too long, and Notre Dame's defense was proven to be a bit of a paper tiger by a talented Michigan State offense a few weeks back. Notre Dame will put up some points thanks mostly to Brady Quinn and Maurice Stovall, but the key for the Irish is getting Darius Walker the ball early and often. Purdue had the No. 1 rushing defense in the country heading into the Metrodome last week, but limped out after being run over by the Laurence Maroiney freight train. Walker won't do nearly as much damage though, and Purdue's home crowd should give it enough of a push to fend off an admirable effort by the Irish.
Pick: Purdue 31, Notre Dame 27
-- Northwestern and Ohio State have the week off before the Wildcats host Wisconsin next week and Penn State welcomes the Buckeyes to Happy Valley for a 7:45 night tilt to be televised by ESPN.
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